Could a conflict in the Hormuz Strait 'scorch' the hopes for a global economic recovery?

The U.S.-led war against Iran has caused severe disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, obstructing approximately 20% of global oil supplies and a significant amount of LNG shipments. During the Asian trading session on Thursday (March 12), U.S. crude oil prices fluctuated upward, initially trading near $95.25 per barrel, with an intraday increase of about 9.2%. The surge in oil prices has triggered energy price shocks that are being transmitted through four main channels to the global economy: rising energy and food prices eroding real incomes; disruptions to supply chains and trade flows; tightening financial conditions; and heightened uncertainty leading to declines in business and consumer confidence. This shock differs from the spike in energy prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022: the current economic conditions are just beginning.

FX678 FinanceMar 12 10:55

Wall Street seer Yardeni: Oil price shocks could trigger '1970s-style stagflation,' raising the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%.

Renowned Wall Street analyst Yardeni has warned that the situation in the Middle East is triggering concerns of stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s. He has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 from 20% to 35%, while sharply lowering the likelihood of a surge in the U.S. stock market from 20% to 5%. In his view, the spike in crude oil prices, coupled with rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and a decline in gold prices, has created multiple signals that are suppressing market risk appetite.

wallstreetcnMar 9 20:53

Is the era of global monetary easing coming to an end? Soaring oil and gas prices rekindle expectations of rate hikes as markets bet on a hawkish shift in Europe.

As energy prices surge, traders have increased their bets on the European Central Bank and the Bank of England resuming interest rate hikes.

Zhitong FinanceMar 9 19:16

A 30% surge in oil prices ignites 'stagflation' trades! The 'global asset pricing anchor' dances as the narrative of loose monetary and fiscal policies collapses.

The oil price storm has torn apart the loose narrative in the stock and bond markets! The sharp rise of the global asset pricing anchor severely impacted risk assets, leading to a full-blown surge in stagflation trades.

Zhitong FinanceMar 9 16:27

Stagflation, Deficits, and Safe Havens: U.S. Treasury Bonds Face Complex Trading Dilemmas as Wall Street Shifts Investment Logic from Rate Cuts to Geopolitical Tensions

The U.S. bond market has fallen into a 'stagflation nightmare': oil prices breaking the $100 mark have driven up inflation, while weak non-farm data has deepened fears of a recession.

Zhitong FinanceMar 9 10:39

Gold Trading Alert: U.S. Treasury and Dollar Combine for a 'Massacre,' Gold Prices Fall Over 1%! With Ongoing Conflicts in the Middle East, Can Bulls Mount a Counterattack?

The global gold market is witnessing a breathtaking “safe-haven paradox”: As the conflict in the Middle East enters its sixth day, with surging oil prices and inflationary clouds gathering, what should have been a moment for gold to act as a safe haven for investors has been completely reversed by a strong US dollar and skyrocketing Treasury yields. On Thursday (March 6), spot gold plummeted by 1.2%, closing at $5,080.88 per ounce. Despite briefly climbing to a high of $5,194.59 during the session, it ultimately succumbed to the combined pressure of the two major forces. The settlement price of April gold futures also fell by 1.1% to $5,078.70. This scenario left countless bulls exclaiming that the “safe-haven mechanism” had failed! Friday (March

FX678 FinanceMar 6 07:27