High interest rate expectations triggered a sell-off in precious metals! Silver plunged 9% in a single day, breaking below the $80 mark.
① Gold prices fell to a more-than-one-week low on Friday, with silver prices plunging below the $80 per ounce threshold; ② The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond and the US dollar both strengthened. Inflation concerns fueled by escalating conflicts in the Middle East have reinforced market expectations for higher interest rates, weighing down precious metal prices.
Strong US dollar and surging yields trigger aggressive gold sell-off.
During the European trading session on Friday (May 15), spot gold was trading at $4,550.37 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4,665.20 and a low of $4,531.99, resulting in a single-day price swing of over $130. The intraday decline was approximately 2.19%. The intraday volatility range clearly reflects market sentiment: gold prices attempted to hold onto gains in the early session but were met with aggressive selling pressure. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index broke above the 99 mark, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.53%, nearing its highest level within a year. The combination of a stronger dollar and surging Treasury yields created dual headwinds, directly weighing down gold prices. Based on the current daily chart
Gold plunges to 4531! The Fed's "rate hike bomb" detonates, with the probability surging 39% before year-end?
On Friday, May 15, spot gold continued its decline for the fourth consecutive trading day, touching a one-week low near $4,531 per ounce during the session. Elevated oil prices maintained upward pressure on inflation expectations, with U.S. Treasury yields rising to near one-year highs and a stronger dollar collectively pressuring non-yielding assets. Market pricing has largely ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026, with some traders even beginning to factor in the likelihood of a rate hike before year-end. Inflation data exceeded expectations, highlighting the spillover risks from energy costs. This week’s release of the U.S. Producer Price Index showed that manufacturing inflation in April accelerated at its fastest pace since 2022, while the Consumer Price Index recorded its highest reading since 2023.
Express News | Spot gold fell below USD 4,600 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 1.10%.
Express News | ANZ Bank: Downgraded year-end gold price target from USD 5,800 to USD 5,600.
The weakening of gold prices conceals underlying complexities, as institutions analyze a significant shift in the logic of gold's safe-haven status.
Geopolitical tensions in Iran have disrupted the global commodities landscape, causing a significant surge in international oil prices while gold prices moved inversely and declined. On Friday (May 15), during Asian trading hours, spot gold fell nearly 1% to around $4,607.30 per ounce. The Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC stated that the current movement of gold has not deviated from its fundamentals, as physical demand remains solid, particularly supported by strong institutional purchases from major Asian economies. At the same time, the historical correlation between gold and oil prices has been fundamentally reshaped, with gold demonstrating characteristics of a risk asset in 2026. Despite short-term pressures, its medium- to long-term allocation value remains intact, supported by factors such as geopolitical instability, central bank purchases, and the need for asset diversification. The outlook for gold remains promising.