Bitcoin has broken through 0.09 million USD! How far can Coinbase go? (2024.11.13)

Hello everyone, this week's 【Technical Tracking】 analyzes the largest Cryptocurrency trading platform in the United States—Coinbase $Coinbase(COIN.US)$ . Since the U.S. presidential election on November 5, the Cryptocurrency market has completely changed! In just one week, the price of Bitcoin surged by 30%, and Coinbase's stock price has also been pushed to a three-year high. How long can this crazy trend continue?

Hot Events

On November 12, 2024 (Tuesday), the price of Bitcoin first broke through 0.09 million USD, setting a historic new high and expanding the strong momentum since the U.S. presidential election. Since the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin has more than doubled, becoming a leader among major Assets and far outperforming Stocks and Gold.

The market's enthusiastic embrace of Bitcoin is mainly due to Trump's victory. Trump positions support for Cryptos as a key part of his campaign, promising to create a more favorable regulatory environment for Cryptos and to make the U.S. a 'superpower of Cryptocurrency.' Additionally, Trump has threatened to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who has been very strict in regulating Cryptos.

The continuous surge in Bitcoin's price has also boosted the strength of Cryptocurrency-related Stocks. As one of the world's major Cryptocurrency trading platforms, Coinbase benefits from the rise in Cryptocurrency prices and trading volume, both of which have contributed significantly to its profit growth. Since Election Day, Coinbase's stock price has soared over 70%, greatly outpacing Bitcoin.

Some Analysts believe that Bitcoin proponents expect Trump's return to the White House to not only bring a more favorable regulatory environment for Cryptos but also possibly establish a government-supported strategy reserve for Cryptos, thereby continuously generating high market demand. However, skeptics point out that although people view Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar, recent trends suggest that Bitcoin is pro-cyclical and closely tied to changes in market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Trend analysis:

The daily chart shows that Coinbase $Coinbase(COIN.US)$ The stock price has experienced fluctuations this year, going through four stages: upward trend, consolidation, downward trend, and upward trend.

The stock price is currently in an upward trend, having risen over 100% in just two months since September. This dramatic movement highlights the high volatility and unpredictability of stocks related to Cryptos.

Indicators interpretation:

● Coinbase's stock price is currently far from the major moving averages, including the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200), indicating the start of a new round of gains, primarily catalyzed by Trump's victory.

● The RSI indicator has dropped below the overbought threshold of 70, having been in an overbought state for three consecutive trading days, suggesting a possible short-term selling opportunity.

● Due to a 10% drop in stock price on November 13, a Put engulfing pattern has formed at the high, where the body of a small bullish candle is completely engulfed by the body of a large bearish candle, indicating the market may reverse downwards.

An important support level below the stock price is around $273, which is the high from four months ago and also the location where the upward gap was formed.

Overall, the trend of Coinbase stock is closely related to the entire market trend of Cryptos, especially Bitcoin. Considering that Coinbase's upward trend has sharply increased in the last week, followed by a drop of 10% on November 13, some Technical Indicators have begun to release negative signals, and investors need to pay attention to the possibility of a short-term pullback.

This content discusses technical analysis; other methods, including Fundamental Analysis, may provide different perspectives. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect expected results.

All investments involve risks, including the potential loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful.