China's first Lidar stock, Hesai Technology, is set to reach its peak?

On March 11, $Hesai (HSAI.US)$ the 2024 fourth quarter and annual Earnings Reports were released, with annual revenue of 2.08 billion yuan, a growth of 10.6%, breaking industry records and becoming the first Global listed Lidar company to achieve profitability for the year. Strong performance spurred the stock price to soar by 50.41%, creating the largest single-day increase of the year!

Strong performance adds luster.

From the latest performance release, $Hesai (HSAI.US)$ the total delivery volume of Lidar for the year reached 501,889 units, a year-on-year growth of 126.0%, achieving a doubling of delivery volume for four consecutive years, with just the delivery volume in Q4 of last year exceeding that for the entire year of 2023, indicating a very strong growth momentum. More importantly, the company expects net revenue to reach 3 billion to -3.5 billion yuan in 2025, with delivery volume potentially soaring 2 to 3 times, reaching 1.2 million to -1.5 million units.

Whether it's the performance for 2024 or the guidance for 2025, Hesai has met expectations. Additionally, there are reports that Mercedes-Benz has selected Hesai as a supplier, further consolidating Hesai's leading position in the international market, undoubtedly adding to its success.

Since the performance in Q3 of last year, Hesai's stock price has soared from a low of 5 dollars to a high of 20.18 dollars in February 2025, with an increase of nearly 300%, mainly reflecting the profitability turning point and the market's optimistic expectations for the increase in autonomous driving penetration. Now with strong performance and bullish Orders in Q4, can the stock price double again? It has become the focus of investors!

Autonomous driving + Siasun Robot&Automation dual drive.

Hesai, as a global leader in Lidar research and manufacturing, has built a complete product matrix over the past 10 years since its establishment in 2014. Currently, it has eight major product lines that cover three main areas: ADAS, autonomous driving, and Siasun Robot&Automation. Hesai products are present in many well-known projects, such as the familiar Xiaomi SU7 Pro and Max models, and the unmanned sanitation vehicle from WeRide.

From the revenue structure, the Lidar business is the income pillar of Hesai, accounting for over 90%; in terms of regional distribution, domestic and North America contribute prominently, cumulatively accounting for over 90%. Paying attention to the market demand and penetration in the respective regions will help grasp the company's business progress.

Leading in the smart driving field.

The core application market for Lidar is in the passenger vehicle sector. According to statistics, by 2029, the global market size for onboard Lidar will exceed 3.6 billion dollars, especially with strong demand in China. Currently, many domestic vehicles priced at 0.1/0.15/0.2 million yuan are starting to be equipped with Lidar, such as BYD, Changan, Leap Motor, and GAC Toyota, which have successively launched Lidar-equipped models priced at 0.1-0.15 million yuan. This is good news for Hesai, as the price of their ATX series products has dropped to 200 dollars, a significant cost breakthrough compared to the previous average price of 450-500 dollars, providing conditions for the popularization of smart driving solutions equipped with Lidar.

Moreover, compared to other Lidar suppliers, Hesai’s market share in the passenger vehicle sector is about 27% (of which 32%, Huawei 28%, TuDaTong 17%; data source is NE Times 2024), while in the Robotaxi sector, it accounts for about 74%, maintaining an absolute leading position. $ROBOSENSE (02498.HK)$ 32% for Huawei, 28% for Tudatong, and 17% for others (data source: 2024 NE Era data). In the Robotaxi field, it accounts for about 74%, placing it in an absolute leading position. As of February 2025, Hesai has reached cooperation agreements with 22 clients for over 100 vehicle models, with 6 of the top 10 automotive companies globally establishing fixed-point cooperation, showcasing its immense potential in the smart driving field.

The space for Siasun Robot&Automation is vast.

In addition, Lidar is widely used in the field of Siasun Robot&Automation, including lawn mowers, snow removal robots, mining vehicles, logistics vehicles, and other general-purpose machines. Hesai Technology has successfully entered the Siasun Robot&Automation track through technological innovation and diversified deployment.

According to public data, Hesai's JT series Lidar, designed specifically for Siasun Robot&Automation, achieved a shipment of over 0.02 million units in its first month of mass production in the fourth quarter of 2024, with total deliveries in the robotics field reaching 0.0288 million units for the year. The newly released JT series has reduced its size by 70%, highlighting its cost-performance advantage, and has been applied in scenarios such as smart lawn mowing robots, BMW factory AGV (Automated Guided Vehicles), and Agricultural Machinery, and has signed "six-figure orders" with leading global smart home robot companies, with a shipment target of 0.2 million units in 2025.

In summary, Hesai is leading in Lidar technology and has extensive collaboration with downstream customers, expected to fully benefit from the growth in domestic demand for Autos and Siasun Robot&Automation. Referencing optimistic assumptions from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank International, if the company's Business progresses smoothly, Global demand for Autos exceeds expectations, and demand in the robot market expands rapidly while maintaining a market share advantage, an optimistic forecast predicts the stock price could soar to $25.3; conversely, it could hover around $13.6.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the stock price currently receives effective support at the EMA50 moving average (around 15.7 USD) and has completely broken through the previous high of 20 USD after the explosive rise on March 11. The EMA50 moving average should be a key reference going forward; price pullbacks near this level could be considered relatively safe entry opportunities, requiring patience to wait.

Related Risks

Although the company has promising prospects in the automotive and Siasun Robot&Automation markets, we still need to pay attention to the risk points in Industry competition, capacity expansion, international Business, and customer concentration. Continuously monitoring the capacity realization in 2025 and the actual penetration of Lidar is crucial for mitigating risks.

1. Development of smart driving not meeting expectations: If smart driving technology does not achieve continuous breakthroughs, it will lead to a lag in Industry development and progress in Lidar business falling short of expectations.

2. Technological route innovation: There is a risk of significant innovations in technological routes, such as Tesla's pure vision solutions, which still pose a potential threat to long-term demand.

Overall, when investors focus on the development opportunities of Hesai Technology, they must fully consider the aforementioned risk factors and make rational investment decisions in conjunction with their own risk tolerance.

Risk Disclosure: This content does not constitute a research report and is for reference only; it should not be the basis for any investment decisions. The information mentioned in this article is not a comprehensive description of the securities, markets, or developments stated. Although the sources of information are considered reliable, there is no guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the above content. Furthermore, there is no assurance of the accuracy of any statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in this article.