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A new round of Network Technology results is coming! Yes this week $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ (Wednesday) and $JD.com(JD.US)$ (Thursday), $BABA-W(09988.HK)$ 、 $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$ 、 $PDD Holdings(PDD.US)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W(03690.HK)$ Other companies will also publish results soon.

There is little volatility in the overall performance of the stock price, but for options, large fluctuations are a good time to Trade. Below we will talk about the weekly news and options on JD.com.

Let's take a look at the results overview

With regard to the upcoming results of these two companies, one sentence summarizes the current relatively common sentiment in the market: $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ Be able to earn steadily and grow; $JD.com(JD.US)$ Profits are likely to fall due to fierce takeout competition. For specific data, you can see the figure below directly.

then $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ Where does the growth come from? What will the future look like?

First of all, gaming is the number one driver of the growth of the Information Business. While these main IPs remain high, the three-pronged movement, and the Lucky Goddess: The new IPs have seen a good number of new IPs, and the new IPs that will be released soon have a fair amount of market relevance.

The Advertising Business is the second growth line in the messaging business, which can be explained by the fact that eco-coordination and technology upgrades are driving the high quality growth of the IT business. Through a deep integration of trade circles within the microcosm ecosystem, search for video, frequency, microphones, and schematics, this increases the conversion rate of advertising. On the other hand, due to an upgrade from AI, there is now more matching and accurate projection, which improves the efficiency of the spread.

In terms of CNI Xiangmi Lake Fintech Index, services such as finance and small loans are maintaining healthy growth due to the recovery of the offline consumer spending landscape. The Market expects this Business to grow 6% on a Q2 revenue basis.

Cloud Business is looking for high quality growth, focusing on big model training, high-value AI orders for Industry solutions. Under strong demand for AI, Q2 cloud business growth is expected to accelerate and grow to more than 20% in comparison.

For example, and without risk, risk factors such as: Increasing the cost of technology investments may affect overall profits, gaming license litigation, AI content regulation policy inaccuracies can affect the course of the business, with fast hand and voice platforms in advertising and content leadership may compete with theaters and lead the flow.

But overall, the game's high viewpoint+advertising resilience+cloud and stable payments form the market consensus for Tencent to “make money steadily and grow.”

$JD.com(JD.US)$ What is the impact on the overall outlook for the overall business?

To put it simply, JD.com's online takeaway business in February of this year is looking ahead and never before, in the typical context of adopting the add-on market.

On the one hand, the loss pattern is far in excess of expectations, the market expects Q2 oversold business losses to reach $10 billion, and Q3 losses are expected to expand further, requiring continued blood flow.

On the other hand, the number of orders in some regions fell by 90% after the addition was reduced, the monthly user retention rate was 52% lower than the US group, and the price sensitive group outsold was higher than the US group. Merchants are required to withdraw due to damage, incomplete conversion of Logistics advantages (the operator does not take into account high long-term performance), and the outselling business is more concentrated on a single type of coffee and milk tea, these are all the risks.

In the short term, there is no pain in selling, but cash inflows in key businesses such as Retail and Logistics are well within the acceptable range. In the long run, JD.com's need to verify the export business's ability to replicate the supply chain's advantages through the retail market, correct substitution of proven policy failures with growing ecosystem interoperability and user model growth, will ultimately override the problems of bikeCoin.

Next, look at the important signals of the two companies

$TENCENT(00700.HK)$ The trend in the near term is relatively good, with the previous day hitting a new high of 52 weeks, mainly due to the momentum of Q2 results over the forecast and AI technical charts. MACD is located in the Spherical Cross Slope Trend, RSI (14D52.0) is in the Neutral Range, and there is no visible signal on the Technical Indicator.

In terms of value, the Market Cap of 5.1 trillion prior to August 12, the Dynamic PE was 23.55, compared to the historical 72% position, below the Industry average. Net Inflow on the Future Fund Portfolio. There is room for further increase in value based on a good long-term outlook for market growth expectations.

In terms of options data, prior to the 12-day market: Inductive wave IV for trading is 28.45%, up from 36% historically, and the current IV is not higher. IV/HV is about 1.09, close to 1, indicating the base of the inductive wave and historical momentum, and the IV base is not in the case of low or high values.

*IV is the forecast for the stocks volatility range over the next period of time. IF THE IVV IS 30%, IT INDICATES THAT THE RANGE OF PRICE RISES AND FALLS WITHIN 30% WITHIN THE NEXT PERIOD OF THE MARKET EXPECTANCY. The HV is the actual volatility of the stock price over a period of time.

The put/call option volume has increased by 1.3In the next two days, the short line may have increased slightly by 1.3In the next two days, the short line may have increased by less than 1.3In the next two days, and the short line may have less trade, and the trade trade is taking a risk or a fall. The Hold Positions/Buy ratio has dropped to 0.97 in the near term, indicating the long line, partial closed positions as flat (or futures calculations), or the addition of newly opened call options, and the long median line is more neutral.

Based on the above, the following information model is a relatively low-volatility type of stock, the corresponding options strategy such as: How to do not have a current strategy Example: If there is no stock exchange stocks in the future, it is possible to consider it, it is possible to consider a sell or sell as a par value Put, to avoid the downside of the stock market Space, at the same time, can be built in a similar low location. If you currently own shares, consider Selling Fair Value Call options to increase cash returns.

And again. $JD.com(JD.US)$ 。 JD.com's year-high is $45.115, and the recent pullback low is $30.6, rebounding by around 32%, mainly reflecting short-term performance pressure from the Overselling Business. On the technical level, the RSI is close to the oversold area, with BOLL resistance around $30 indicating the possibility of a rebound from the technical level alone.

In terms of funds, the nearest Net Outflow is showing, and the Short Sell ratio is not low, reflecting the short-term shortage of space. In terms of valuation, the market pricing of this kind already includes a timeframe for short-term losses in the Over-selling Business, and whether the value will be able to meet the needs to be corrected.

Take a look at the options data again. As of the 12th day of the IPO, JD.com's IV was 41.44%, the historical percentage point was less than 10%, and the current IVV may be lower. The ratio of IV/HV is approximately 1.35, which indicates that the previous IV is higher than in a period of time, since the performance of the pre-IV usually increases, so that, due to the current situation, there are not so many signals that can be transmitted.

The Rative/Purchasing Volume Ratio is 0.46, a rapid rebound in the coming days after a rapid rise, explaining the current dislocation of the shortwave track plate, and the overall pattern of solid expansion. The Hold Positions/Acquisition Hold Positions ratio is 0.56, and in the near term, it indicates that the hedging demand for the median line needs to be increased. However, the size of the market is many.

Based on the above article, an options trading strategy may be more beneficial. Whether it is possible to return to the most basic call or buy put strategy, the former is to gamble the market into a rebound after a certain profit cycle, or the consolidation change in the medium to long term fundamentals, the latter is more of a short-term hedge.

Here's how to do a practical tutorial: Message and Sell Put, JD.com MyCall

*The following content is for investment education purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Options Trading is subject to risk, attention to divergence and volatility risks, and buying requires special attention to devaluation over time, price degradation resulting from IV falls, and trading requires special attention to the risk of execution.

Note: By Selling Low Value Puts, Seizing Footfall Space, Can Be Built at Low Positions

First tip: If you see the fundamentals of good news in the long term, it is advisable to build positions at the relevant lows

2. How to choose the maturity date and line option price?

If you choose a very close maturity date, you will soon face the risk of being overridden once the stock price falls below the option. Of course, if you are very willing to build a position on the stock price, this risk will be beneficial instead. Extending dates are extended a little further, such as September 29, to leave a window of time, so that even if the share price has recently fallen below the warrant price, there is still the possibility of a rebound in the future.

However, if the share price rises, options closer to the date can move towards the acquisition of the rights more quickly, and the longer term will need to be somewhat uncertain. As long as the date goes, the value deteriorates over time, and this is not a good way to sell. The Theta value that reflects this rate of change does not differ much between options due in August and September, but the rate of price erosion does not depend on the date chosen at the time.

The choice of bank option can refer to the prediction of one-day stock price volatility after the performance of past market participants and its relationship with the actual volatility range. In the past, the actual one-day volatility after Tencent results was usually smaller than the forecast, while the market forecast for the latest results was ± 2.74%.

Since the seller needs to be a little more cautious about the option of the option, such as extending the margin to 7% to maintain a greater safe distance, the corresponding share price is around HK$520.

3. Selling operation steps:

① Open TencentOptions Chain, Select Single Option

② Leave to select a Put with a date of September 29 for HK$520 (and other options can be made). Click on the details page of this option to see the Volume and Buy Price Differences, to avoid options with low volume and high price differences, so that the profit can be lost in this case

③ Go back to the first page, switch to “Sell”, then click the “Trade” button, then fill in the price and quantity

④ Before trading, you can click on the icon to the right of the Sell button, see the relevant transaction fees and the required security deposit, and see the number of blanks available directly on the previous page to verify that the warehouse location is not necessary, and at most click the Sell button again.

4. Subsequent operation after sale

① If the reasons for the fall in the price of the options after the performance are due to the increase in the share price and the decrease in the IV, the reasons for the decrease in the price of options can be considered profitable

② If the stock price drops after the result, the company does not fall by HK$520, you can let the child fly, observe the loss of the account for a period of time, consider moving warehouses, Buy flat warehouses and sell them further away, exercise options at lower rights prices, and balance the account

③ In the event of the last exercise of the right, you can consider selling the Authorized Share Price above the Call at the Buy Buy Price of the Shares to increase cash income if you own the Stock Market.

JD.com: Callbo Bounce

First tip: You recognize that the profits of JD.com's Takeaway Business have largely disappeared, and expect a positive and dynamic valuation correction in the Retail and Logistics Business

2. How to choose the maturity date and line option price?

If you want to lower costs, choose a recent, lower option price, such as a $32.5 call that matures on August 15; if you're more concerned about risk, choose a call with a longer, flat or slightly notional value, such as a $39 call due on October 17.

However, it is the buyer's strategy to avoid high or low rates, it is necessary to prepare well for the non-return of this coin, to maintain the lowest possible warehouse space, and then to continue to make a profit in sight and time, to avoid becoming a favorite place behind the mountain.

For today's content, please feel free to let us know if you have any ideas or suggestions about this strategy and NVIDIA's options forum!

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