Hong Kong stocks rebound above 25,000 points: Is it a genuine bull market? A brief surge?

After almost four years of waiting, Hong Kong stocks have finally returned to the 25,000 mark!

$Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$ The Bottom Rebounded by Nearly 40% This Year, and the Market Is Somewhat Warm. However, not least in the investor center there is a question: If this is a real bull market, that is, a multifaceted romance that will come once again. After multiple downturns, should we keep our faith in Hong Kong shares?

In today's Compendium Cruises, we joined a group of emerging market commentators to discuss the success of the company, so as to break down the pre-market and dive sectors and share the investment department's strategy for the future.

Three main drivers behind Hong Kong stocks rebound

ING SIR noted that the recent rebound in Hong Kong shares was mainly supported by the following factors:

1. US Escalation Expected Warm-up: Markets are expecting the United States to enter a severe stress reduction cycle in the coming year, which will help global capital to return to equity markets, including Emerging Markets and Hong Kong stocks.

2. North Water Continuous Inflow: Chinese capital (China) is currently sweeping through the extreme south for the near term to support the market, along with other Chinese stocks and large blue hubs.

3. Tencent Performance Ideal: As Heng's heavyweight constituent stock, $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ The performance of the results has a significant boost to the market atmosphere.

However, Sir also pointed out that volume and contraction remain fundamental problems for the current economy, and that some investors, especially local investors in Hong Kong, lack of confidence in Hong Kong stocks, resulting in the market's frequent return to earnings at high levels, limiting the market's gains.

Hang Seng short-term outlook: 27,000 — 28,000 pips is a reasonable upper

The Hang Seng Index is expected to rebound from 2,000 to 3,000 points in the short term, and to challenge the 27,000-28,000-point Range in the near term.

However, there is also limited room for major market declines, with stronger support around 24,000 points.

In addition, the current market sentiment trend is not entirely possible to see the big bull market in general, and there is no need to overvisit it.

Investment Headline 1: Sentimental Value Stocks — “Mental Consumption” That Defeats Shrinkage

In particular, there is an important Concept: Emotional Value.

Affective Value refers to the consumer buying a product or service without the necessities of life, but in order to satisfy emotional needs, to be quick and happy, for example, to buy tickets to attend a virtual concert, to collect limited edition peripheral goods, etc.

In an environment of contraction and turnover, he believes, sentiment consumption has the ability to resist falls and even counteract the rise of the market.

You can note:

---- $POP MART(09992.HK)$ : Emotional Value Stock's “Lead Sheep”, featuring blind boxes and IP collections, is popular among young people.

---- $DAMAI ENT(01060.HK)$ versus $TME-SW(01698.HK)$ : There are two more Bullish characters in the UK. Especially when it comes to concert economics and music streaming, the two instruments are prepared to develop a great deal of energy.

---- $Tencent Music(TME.US)$ Subscriptions are relatively cheap (similar to Spotify), there is room to raise prices in the future, and the profit model can expand sustainably.

Investment Main Line 2: China Life (2628.HK) — High Beta, High Resilience, Boo's Rising Choice

Sir Special Spot $CHINA LIFE(02628.HK)$ , the reasons are as follows:

— A shares and H shares are significantly discounted, and the discount is expected to narrow as the interconnection mechanism of the two markets deepens;

— China Life's “breakout potential” may be the highest among the many blue-chip stocks that are heavily discounted;

—Bullish, you see that the big market is up 40,000 points, not directly related to China's life expectancy — — Boehang is listed at 40,000, not if China's people are above HK$40;

— The stock is a high-beta stock, that is, the market rises, and it rises faster; if the market really explodes, it will be one of the main beneficiaries.

INVESTMENT MAINLINE 3: AVIATION AND TOURISM STOCKS BENEFITING FROM CHINA'S TOURISM RECOVERY

A new wave of growth is expected in the tourism and aviation sector with the Mainland's relaxed tourist visa policy and the high cost-efficiency ratio of “China Travel”.

Ansir believes that related stocks, such as domestic aviation, have a certain value premium, especially as consumers begin to increase leisure and travel expenses.

AI Thematic Investing: US stocks outperform, Hong Kong stock selection is news

On the subject of AI (artificial intelligence), Sir Sir is forthright:

— It is more advantageous to invest in US share-related AI stocks as the US is a major battleground for AI technology and applications;

If you choose only one major AI/Technology share, $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ Definitely the first choice;

— Huge user base and diverse application scenarios (WeChat, gaming, cloud, payments, etc.);

One reason for this is the continued decline of South African Shareholder Naspers, although the long-term outlook for the future of the company is the natural landscape.

He also mentioned that as the DeepSeek craze wanes, the market begins to face “inbound” challenges, and investors should “quit ATMs ( $BABA-W(09988.HK)$ 、 $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W(03690.HK)$ )” old thought, but in fact everyone is now “Quit JAM ( $JD-SW(09618.HK)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W(03690.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W(09988.HK)$ )”, while Tencent (T) has remained relatively stable.

Main Line of Defense: High Yield Stocks Remain Core Position, Earn-Based, Earn-Based

“Investing in Hong Kong stocks should be dominated by high yield stocks, and the proportion of growth stocks can be relatively low,” said Sir.

The reasons include:

Assets with low domestic indebtedness and market capitalization in search of assets that are profitable and capable of deleveraging;

Telecommunications stocks (if moving between them and China Mainland Banking (if construction and work are a viable option;

Hong Kong Local Bank $BOC HONG KONG(02388.HK)$ versus $HSBC HOLDINGS(00005.HK)$ Also worth paying attention to:

— Although in the past the market was concerned about the quality of its loans, it has now gradually stabilized;

Wealth Management Business Becomes New Growth Momentum;

Beijima loves the high shares, because these highs are not only stable, they are supported by the inflow of funds.

Investors are advised to use high-yield stocks as a core position to earn stable interest income, while rising stock prices are an additional reward.

Risk Warning: Beware of “JAM” Effect and China-US Trade Uncertainty

Quitting the “JAM” phenomenon: Investors are avoiding it $JD-SW(09618.HK)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W(03690.HK)$ 、 $BABA-W(09988.HK)$ , leading to weak performance of the relevant shares;

Emerging risks: such as JD.com's early price battle, the loss of the relevant investment losses is severe;

China-US trade relations: no final agreement has been reached and the future remains uncertain;

US economy: Despite signs of slowing, the market has begun to reassess the value of manufacturing, as the cost of tariffs is borne more by US consumers.

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It's too early to say whether the bull market will come, but the opportunity is already in sight

In summary, while Hong Kong stocks have regained 25,000 points, whether they can continue to rise, further challenging 28,000 or even 40,000 points, will depend on a number of macro factors, including the pace of US interest rate cuts, Sino-US relations, the strength of the Mainland economic recovery, etc.

However, in the words of Sir: “The market will not only not rise, it will not only rise. The key is to find the value of the long line price of the instrument, the emotional support and the return on investment symbols that are stable in the volatility

Whether you're a conservative or an enterprising investor, you should be closing in on high-yield stocks, moderate thematic stocks such as sentiment consumption, travel entertainment, AI apps, and keep a close eye on market trends and policy trends.

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