Huang Guoying: Are influencer stocks rewriting the rules of the stock market? Sir Ying discusses POP MART.

Q：經過這個貿易戰，持有甚麼股票可以笑到最後呢？

港股買家可分成三批，很分化。

第一批，專攻中特估和指數的傳統投資者；

第二批，專盯 $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ 和 $BABA-W(09988.HK)$ 等大價股的外資；

第三批，著重公司故事多過估值，策略入市的內地資金，包括 $POP MART(09992.HK)$ 。

Q: How to evaluate this trend?

The starting points of several groups of people are different. Why is there this statement? Because in the last Futu Investment Expo I mentioned that I met with three groups of people, everyone discussed Hong Kong stocks, but the entry points were different, interests and entry points were completely different.

Firstly, foreign investors have a completely different perspective due to the rise of DeepSeek. The Hong Kong stock market follows Alibaba and Tencent because comparative overseas stocks are very cheap. However, they do not fully understand the consumption market in Mainland China, believing that overall it might be very poor, but they do not quite grasp the unique situation of having 'bridges' means having a life, while having no 'bridges' means no life. Therefore, there is more agreement on buying technology stocks, which are relatively cheaper. If the market is good, these stocks will definitely perform well; if the market turns bad, there's not much that can be done, but at least these investors can exit. Research is not as deep as that of Mainland investors.

Local investors believe that even for Tencent and Alibaba, they might be risky and volatile, so it's better to hold stocks for dividends without getting too complicated. Therefore, they tend to hold positions. $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK)$ Or hold positions in domestic banks or special estimates. These individuals are not looking for high returns but rather for annual dividends, making a little profit is enough, and the most important thing is not to incur heavy losses. This is the mindset of many older investors in Hong Kong.

Lastly, regarding that batch of investors, I have talked with many Chinese-funded brokers, and they have many thoughts. Due to the rise of POP MART, everyone believes that having a 'bridge' means having life, and the influence of internet celebrities is indeed very significant, as sales channels largely depend on their recommendations. Recommendations from internet celebrities are crucial, they can distinguish which are better and which are not. However, better valuations tend to be expensive, while sales relying on internet celebrities may cost less traditionally. Large-cap stocks will rise with the market, and to pursue outperforming the market, one must follow stocks sought after by Mainland investors.

In addition to internet celebrity consumption, there is also domestic substitution. Due to trade wars, there is a need to reduce reliance on external sources, requiring domestic products; this is not only about stimulating domestic demand but also about having autonomous space for replacements. It cannot be as people say, food being threatened by foreign entities, medicine being threatened by foreign entities, semiconductor autonomy may also (drive... $SMIC(00981.HK)$ The reason for speculation).

Q: Will the stocks that rise significantly be heavily weighted stocks?

Not entirely those stocks, safe stocks should also be included. Stocks that could rise significantly may also drop sharply; the pattern needs to be 'virtual' in order to rise this much. In a bearish market, they will decline more, and we cannot allow the Funds to... $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK.US)$ Drop that much, it needs to be collected together.

Our Funds include China Mobile and local bank stocks, which do not incur significant losses when they drop. There is also cash; it cannot be purely those. But the current direction has changed; previously, it was AI infrastructure, but now the theme is AI applications, and we have significantly reduced our holdings in the Super Seven.

Q: Are bank stocks the most heavily weighted in Hong Kong stocks?

Calculating the position of Hong Kong stocks is not a very good indication either. Our largest position may be... $BOC HONG KONG(02388.HK)$ Why? Because the stock price does not fluctuate much, it will win but not by a large percentage. Buying a lot, but not worrying about losing too much. Is it the concept of holding cash? It’s slightly better than cash, it can be bet on, but won’t win much, so no worries about buying more.

We have a high winning percentage with POP MART, but the stakes we buy are not large. It is necessary to respond to stock price volatility.

Q: Is the largest position in US stocks Robinhood?

Yes, the largest holding is $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$ . The United States relies on loyal customer bases; companies with sticky customer bases are more valuable. Is Robinhood because of Q&M Dental? Everyone is gambling; gambling on stocks does not need to be as complicated as before, introducing some binary options (Call or Put options). Today the S&P 500 Index, whether above or below 5700 points, you can buy. Is options also considered complicated? Then just bet on the closing price. For example, $Coinbase(COIN.US)$ doing well, $DoorDash(DASH.US)$ 、 $Uber Technologies(UBER.US)$ will be pretty good, $Netflix(NFLX.US)$ 、 $Spotify Technology(SPOT.US)$ 。

We all believe that the application aspect of AI may become competitive, the costs of AI applications will decrease, and the valuable segment lies in the ability to maintain customers. Companies that can do well for customers will be the most valuable. We choose from this perspective.

Of course, we are afraid, for example, of Uber, being potentially 'killed'. $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ Therefore, Uber's valuation is consistently low in the long term. As long as there is a bit more optimism that Uber won't be eliminated, the valuation will be reassessed.

Q: Previously, the fund held Tesla, has it been sold off?

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$ We sold a portion, but not everything. After the earnings report, we exited some earlier, and even before it reached this level, we sold some. The position is smaller compared to before. Ultimately, valuation cannot be calculated. Although the market remains optimistic (about Tesla), the stock price being at this level is still very optimistic. We are quite bullish on Robotaxi, but we tend to prefer other safer options, holding a relatively small position. If the loyalty on the user side is weakening for Tesla, then a lower valuation than before would be reasonable.

Q: Which has a larger position, Hong Kong stocks or US stocks?

About the same, but the themes of the positions on both sides are different.

The Hong Kong stock market has a safe top position, and investing is not overly concerned with valuations; it focuses more on the stories behind the stocks, with an overall small proportion. The level of Holdings in the Hong Kong stock market may be similar to that of the U.S. market, but the safety in the Hong Kong stocks is higher. The U.S. market relies on belief in the underlying themes, and customer loyalty is key to value. There is hope for appreciation, especially if the market rises in this segment. Additionally, there is exposure to Gold-related assets. $比特币 (BTC.CC)$ and so on.

Q: What message do you have for our audience? What should we remind them in the second half of the year?

Young people should continue to invest, not refrain from buying Stocks just because of a poor economy. Remember these three words: live long enough. There should be confidence in living longer than Trump.

If you are older and do not want to take too many risks, and do not feel you can live longer than Trump, then be more conservative.

Wishing everyone to sail through the waves and hoping to make some money!