Huang Guoying: The signal of a peak in Hong Kong Stocks! The characteristic of winning Stocks is "long-lasting"?

Will the 'Trump Trade' evolve into selling the USA.

Huang Guoying: I don’t think the USA will be completely sold off. The current market view is that, regardless of what Trump does, it’s only a matter of three to four years.

If this continues, inflation will definitely be higher, the economy will definitely be worse, and investor sentiment will rebound increasingly. Assuming it drags out, it can’t be resolved in just 90 days; it’s a very urgent time window. Normal thinking indicates that the pain point is in the USA, so it’s not unexpected that there may be some way out.

If selling the USA happens, part of that may involve selling American brands, which might face backlash from global Consumers; the US dollar may be perceived as weaker; US Bonds might require a higher risk premium from everyone, which could impact dollar Assets.

However, the US stock market should be selective, with Technology and financial engineering being relatively better. Irreplaceable things in the USA are mainly concentrated in these two areas, while Others have relatively low competitiveness. Retail Consumer stocks might perform poorly.

Has the recent crash of the US stock market come to an end.

Huang Guoying: The current market plays indicate that the bottom is solid. But will it drop multiple times? There is a chance. Because the market is very optimistic regarding whether a Trade agreement will be reached, I believe the likelihood of disappointment is higher, but when it drops, it won’t indiscriminately kill positions.

People will notice that friends are quite impressive. If talking about earth-shattering changes, in just one month, US stocks have already rebounded, and the support from the bottom friends is strong. There has been no substantial progress in trade negotiations, yet stocks have gone up, indicating strong friends, and the chances of another significant drop are low.

Portfolio adjustments have been completed, and a state of half bear market and half bull market may emerge: some stocks benefit more, while others suffer and will sink, not recovering from the rebound. This polarized market situation will occur more frequently.

The indices will not rise to the highest level as before but may fluctuate at relatively low levels.

What is the difference between winners and losers at this moment?

Huang Guoying: It all relies on belief; this world definitely depends on belief.

You should think about choosing some "long-lived" stocks, ones with a lifespan longer than the Trump era. Avoid buying stocks that are crushed by Trump’s policies or those with high debt. Additionally, avoid stocks that will see a sales drop if the USA offends foreign countries. Do not buy this type of stock; instead, buy some "long-lived" stocks.

Even buying some long-lived stocks will still have fluctuations, just like our previous belief in $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$ was quite strong.

You should know that we mentioned this at the Futu investment exhibition; its stock price once fell to around $30. However, at that time our fund's cash level was high enough and our Hold Positions were low, so we could continue to Hold without losing too much.

During this period you should agree that market uncertainty remains very high, requiring a larger buffer zone to withstand fluctuations, and the Hold Positions should be lower than before.

Choose some higher-quality companies to hold; do not be easily shaken off by fluctuations. I think this is quite important.

It is necessary to look at its business model and financial strength; not all US Stocks can be treated the same, as they will perform differently.

If losses occur, it may be due to emotions being led by market changes. One thing to avoid is the belief that poor economic conditions mean a poor stock market; this idea must be discarded. Poor economic conditions are merely cyclical, and under Trump, it became chaotic for at most three years. Many companies can improve after three years, and many will Buy into companies that show improvement. If emotions are low, people will sell when it's low and chase when it's high, following the fluctuations can be very dangerous. It is better to make small bets on companies you believe in long-term.

Is the strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar Bullish for the Hong Kong stock market? Is there a chance that the Hang Seng Index will break through 25,000 points?

Huang Guoying: At least it is a positive signal.

Investors buying into Hong Kong Stocks, while currencies in the entire Asia region are appreciating, do not necessarily mean a Bullish environment for the stock market. Some may believe that the USA appreciates Asian currencies, but it is special for Hong Kong, as the strongest is 7.75 HKD to 1 USD. In addition, given Hong Kong's special circumstances, the importance of northbound capital is significant; for Mainland investors, having coverage of Hong Kong Stocks is also essential, which is a factor that has long-term benefits for Hong Kong stocks.

Foreign capital has not yet confirmed if it can look long-term (Inflow), it is not very certain for now. The strong Hong Kong dollar can be seen as a good signal, but it can be determined that Hong Kong Stocks carry slightly less risk compared to USA Stocks? It cannot be said that it is lower. The risk is somewhat lower on the Indices, as the USA market is very optimistically anticipating that trade negotiations can succeed, and the trend has been unexpectedly strong. However, the stocks that suffered in the USA are more numerous, while the stocks that suffered in Hong Kong are mainly export stocks.

If the trade agreement cannot be reached, the proportion of (export stocks) in the index is small, while domestic Consumer stocks should still be okay along with Technology platforms, or the local Banks stocks that are currently outperforming, which should increase the buffer of the index.

$HSBC HOLDINGS(00005.HK)$ There is a chance for a valuation reassessment. Due to the nature of wealth management business, it has suddenly become much stronger, so it is believed that the risks of the index are lower.

But for individual stocks, it needs to look at the individual stock's business, however, the previous decline gap (April 7, 2025) is now being repaired upward for Hong Kong Stocks. $Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$ Is pushing up to 25,000 points already at its peak?

It is very difficult to estimate. It seems likely that it can break through (25,000 points), but it is hard to determine whether it can rise beyond that. Some stocks are relatively optimistic, especially local Banks stocks are expected to perform well.

The new stock market is booming, is it worth subscribing to Contemporary Amperex Technology?

$CATL(03750.HK)$ It is H Shares' secondary listing, the initial momentum is usually ordinary, and there is already a price reference from (A Shares), the main expectation is the (AH Stocks) discount, it is best to... $MIDEA GROUP(00300.HK)$ In the situation, there is a surprising turn. When Midea went public, it was very poor, and only after a while did it soar. For example, last time, it only surged later. $CHIFENG GOLD(06693.HK)$ It also only surged later.

Contemporary Amperex Technology was originally already a symbol, and most people may have already bought it; investors may think of achieving a larger price difference in AH Stocks before betting.

The odds of winning seem higher. The fact that Contemporary Amperex Technology is listed in Hong Kong has caused many to stop trading in A-shares, planning to return to Hong Kong stocks to bet again, thus the odds of winning are greater. However, since it is a company with a large Market Cap, the winning margin may not be very large, but the odds of winning are greater.

Actually, it depends on whether foreign countries will target it. New energy battery stocks will always be a hidden concern. There is still some distance from the peak.

In the long run, this company has potential and is very important in this Industry; buying and holding is possible, but it won't be smooth sailing. $SF HOLDING(06936.HK)$ But it is better than.

In short, whether to bet or not is up to personal determination. It still goes back to that question: Is there faith?