Niu Niu Tong Sheng
In the Israel-Palestine conflict, who is the biggest winner.
The largest gray rhino has emerged in 2025!
The situation of warfare in the Middle East is rapidly escalating, with direct conflict with Iran causing global panic. The stock market is volatile, while Gold and oil prices are surging. In this crisis, how to choose safe-haven Assets?
In the stock market, is the strategy of 'be fearful when others are greedy' applicable? This episode of 'Futubull Tongsheng' will tell you.
As soon as the second half of the year began, the world faced a major crisis.
On June 13, the long-standing conflict between Israel and Iran finally escalated into direct military confrontation. Israel launched airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military bases, with conflict ready to ignite. Afterward, both sides continued to fire at each other, with the focus of the conflict including:
The world's largest natural gas field facility was attacked and caught fire, leading to partial production interruptions;
Both sides attacked each other's oil depots and refineries;
The market is also concerned about the Strait of Hormuz—whether this transportation route for Crude Oil Product and liquefied natural gas will be blocked.
In the face of sudden geopolitical conflicts, the market immediately displayed a panic sentiment. On the first day of the Iraq war announcement, the three major U.S. stock indexes all dropped over 1%. Every time a war occurs, the situation fluctuates, and many people wonder: how much impact does this have on the U.S. stock market?
Looking back at Historical Data, since 1990, there have been many significant geopolitical events worldwide, which usually only cause short-term fluctuations in the stock market. $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ In many of these events, it is often possible to regain lost ground within a month, or even rise more.
Energy infrastructure can be said to be the focal point of the current conflict, so how has the oil price trend changed? On the day the Iraq conflict erupted, oil prices surged over 6%. Earlier, major banks predicted that if the conflict expanded further, oil prices could return to $120 per barrel, potentially the most significant surge in oil prices in recent wars.
As a prized safe-haven asset, Gold continues to be the target of funds in this round. Gold prices have rebounded above the $3,400 mark, approaching a new high. As regional tensions escalate, combined with market concerns about a weakening dollar and increasing U.S. fiscal deficits, some analysts believe that various factors are supporting Gold prices. Major banks estimate that Gold prices may rise to $4,000 per ounce in the next year.
As the battle situation updates daily, the stock and asset markets have become volatile. Under the shadow of war, aside from liquidating positions, are there smarter deployment options for investors? Listen to expert analysis.
The stock market has actually experienced similar wartime situations in the past. If the shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz is not affected, even if the stock market falls further, it would only be a reasonable adjustment and not a panic sell-off. Unless there is a real nuclear war or confirmation of Strait blockades, there are still opportunities to buy at lower levels.
The investment market is still influenced by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). The economic issues in the market do exist; the U.S. Treasury has adopted a relatively rare method, injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market through stablecoins, which is somewhat equivalent to a variant of quantitative easing.
When it comes to stablecoins, one naturally thinks of $Circle(CRCL.US)$ , which is very representative. From the trend, Circle has a relatively advantageous position. If the market adjusts, it is believed that funds will rush to increase their positions. Circle still has upward potential since it received official recognition from the U.S. government, which will greatly help its future development. Currently, the value of Circle is hard to estimate, and there is no need to consider indicators like PE. Compared to Labubu, its valuation is even harder to predict.
It is believed that the chance of a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is very low, as Iran has relatively limited weapons and resources and may not be capable of fully blocking the strait. Preliminary forecasts suggest that oil prices will face significant resistance around $80. If a severe blockade or nuclear event occurs, oil prices may exceed $100. In the short term, it is suggested to invest a small amount in the crude oil market.
As for Gold, there is a bullish outlook with an optimistic attitude toward the target price and trend. Many central banks in Emerging Markets are continuously accumulating Gold, and demand for Gold is gradually increasing in the market. If there is a significant drop in Gold prices, entering the market around $3300 may be considered, betting on a price rebound to $3500. It is anticipated that reaching $3800 to $4000 within this year or early next year is a reasonable expectation.
Although geopolitical situations are unstable, there are still investment opportunities among them. Ask Futubull AI: Go to the 'search bar', and you will see the 'Futubull AI' icon. Input your questions, and Futubull AI will provide one-on-one answers to your difficulties, quickly helping you gather market information. Everyone, hurry to try out the Futubull App!
