Gold is set to be the best trade in 2025, continuing to rise?

2025年以來，國際金價 $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FX)$ Continuously breaking historical highs, successfully surging past the $3,300/ounce milestone. Behind this round of rising prices is a wave of funds seeking refuge due to uncertainties in the global economy. Since Trump initiated the tariff war, international conflicts have intensified, US stocks have significantly retracted, the USD has fallen, and funds have poured into the Gold market in search of safe haven, driving Gold prices up.

For ordinary investors, can Gold still be invested in now? What is the reason for allocation? How to operate in the future?

Reasons for the rise in Gold.

Before the Trade, let us analyze in detail the logic behind this round of Gold price increase.

在之前的課程《黃金該怎麼投？細說金價上漲背後的驅動力》In discussing the investment logic and price influencing factors of Gold, it is evident from this chart that the reasons for the rise in Gold are the demand for hedging and changes in the USD price, which are the main factors currently driving up Gold prices.

Firstly, Gold possesses monetary attributes, and during times of global turmoil and when fiat currencies lose credibility, it can function as an "asset safe haven". As the demand for hedging increases, gold prices rise; at the same time, gold is priced in USD, and when the USD devalues, since gold's inherent value remains unchanged, it manifests as a price increase when valued in foreign currencies.

Analysis of Gold Trends

Looking back at historical trends in Gold, two gold bull markets almost always occurred during periods of global economic imbalance and international order changes. For instance, during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the USD crisis of the 1960s to 1970s, when the international monetary system wavered, the monetary value of gold would come into play.

Considering the current global economic situation, since Trump took office, he has been committed to solving the U.S. debt crisis, hoping to reduce the trade deficit, promote the return of U.S. manufacturing, and solidify the credibility of the USD to maintain American hegemony. The reality is that the policies he has introduced have frequently changed, severely disrupting the international order; more critically, in the process of reducing the trade deficit, USD exports would also decrease, which to some extent undermines the function of the USD as a world currency, and indirectly erodes the credibility of the USD, possibly accelerating its devaluation.

In summary, the factors affecting Gold prices are: economic order turmoil > decline in USD credit > depreciation of USD, this chain reaction is Bullish for Gold, driving up Gold prices.

From the actual trading situation, according to a global fund manager survey, Gold has now become the most Bullish and crowded trade worldwide.

The trading of Mag 7 decreased from 55% in February to 24%. In March, the US stock market fluctuated while the Hong Kong and European stock markets still had some heat, but after the tariffs were launched in April, funds began to concentrate on Gold. According to official data from the World Gold Council (WGC), only in the first 11 days of April did mainland China increase its Shareholding in Efund Gold ETF by 29.1 tons, exceeding the total of 23.5 tons for the entire first quarter. Currently, 42% of people believe Gold is the best trade this year, 18% believe cash is best, and another 18% think government bonds are best, while the percentage of global Stocks has reduced to 11%, highlighting the pessimistic expectations of investors.

What is the potential for further rise in gold?

Some opinions suggest that Gold is still in the process of "buying expectation" and the Bullish factors have not yet been fully priced in. Future tariffs implementation, US recession expectations, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may continue to stimulate the rise in Gold prices.

As of the time of publication, the gold price reached 3352 USD/ounce. According to the forecasts of various institutions regarding gold, since April, at least four Wall Street institutions have raised their gold price forecasts. Among them, Goldman Sachs, UBS Group, ANZ, and Citibank predict that the gold price will rise to above 3500 USD/ounce, and in extreme cases, it could even reach 4500 USD/ounce.

In addition, as of April 16th, the year-to-date increase in Gold is 27%. According to historical trends of Gold, a review of the past 24 years shows that in about 1/3 of the years, the maximum annual increase exceeds 27%. Based on this reference, the probability of Gold prices continuing to rise is still considerable, but investors need to be wary of the cognitive trap of looking for the sword in the boat, as historical experience is not entirely reliable and market conditions are constantly changing.

Gold investment strategy.

If investing in Gold, our options are quite diverse. For example, physical Gold, Gold Futures, or Efund Gold ETF, etc.

Efund Gold ETF

Among these investment methods, Efund Gold ETF may be the most flexible entry option for Gold investment. Its underlying assets are usually tangible gold bars or Gold Futures. When gold prices rise, the ETF rises, providing advantages such as trading convenience, transparent pricing, low entry costs, and no storage risks.

For example, for instance $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US)$ ， $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU.US)$ ， $Spdr Gold Minishares Trust(GLDM.US)$ These are several ETFs that are currently popular in the market, have a large scale, and are actively traded, which mooers may want to pay special attention to. More teachings on Efund Gold ETF can be found inWhat Efund Gold ETFs are available? How to choose?which provides very detailed explanations, new mooers can move on to learn.

• In terms of entry timing, based on technical trends, there is currently no obvious resistance level for Gold prices. The MA50 line around the support level of 3,000 USD can be referenced, and participation can be made at low points to reduce risk.

• Regarding position allocation, it's possible to consider allocating 10%-30% of funds to Gold, and through triangular position management, the trading funds can be divided in a 3:2:1 ratio. If the trend aligns with expectations, position increases can continue, otherwise stop increasing positions to minimize investment risks. Of course, every time a position is established, a stop-loss point must be set, confirming the acceptable risk range.

Risk Reminder

It is worth noting that although Gold has long-term logic for hedging and anti-inflation, caution is required when chasing prices at historical highs. Market 'euphoria' often accompanies the accumulation of risks, and rational analysis and risk management are the survival rules in the current environment.