Trade Mini Course - Technical Tracking
JPMorgan's performance sets a new historical record, will stock prices continue to soar after Trump's administration? (2024.01.17)
Hello everyone, this week's 【Technical Indicator】 continues to analyze the largest commercial Banks in the USA by asset size — $JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ 。
Hot Topics
On the 15th, Bank of America led the way in releasing its Q4 2024 results, with $JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ the four major Banks all delivering better-than-expected data, marking a perfect start. Combined with the stable CPI data, the impressive performance of these Banks not only drove the US stock market to surge but also established a strong tone for the entire earnings season.
Among them, JPMorgan performed the best, with earnings and guidance exceeding expectations. Q4 revenue was 42.768 billion USD, with a Net income of 14 billion USD, a strong increase of 50%. For the whole year of 2024, the Net income is expected to be 58.5 billion USD, an 18% increase from last year, setting a historical record for Bank of America. After the news was released, JPMorgan's stock price rose, with a closing price increase of 1.97%.
The growth in Wall Street's banking sector is mainly attributed to corporate clients being optimistic about the economic outlook and the return of the 'Trump administration,' which has stimulated a rebound in mergers, financing, and Trade activities. JPMorgan's Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum stated: There is no doubt that the overall environment has seen a significant increase in optimistic sentiment. Implicitly, 2025 may bring more relaxed and proactive policies for the banking industry.
In addition, there were previous rumors that JPMorgan's CEO Dimon would soon resign, but Dimon stated in this conference call that there may still be a few years until his resignation, which is also good news for the company.
Technical Analysis
Trend Analysis
From the weekly chart, JPMorgan's stock price is overall in a strong upward trend, once reaching a historic high. Currently, there is strong support at the lower edge of the channel, indicating a good bullish momentum.
From the daily chart, JPMorgan has accumulated a 44% increase over the past year. On November 6, it gapped up to rise 11.54%, mainly due to Trump's election victory, leading the market to believe that he would fulfill campaign promises, lowering corporate taxes and reducing regulation after taking office, thus stimulating a significant rise in stock prices.
Referring to the EMA12 and 50-day moving averages, JPMorgan is still in an upward trend, with effective support formed multiple times at the EMA50 moving average. Each pullback presents a relatively good entry opportunity. Currently, after four consecutive days of rising, the stock price has broken through the November high. Considering the recent rise accompanied by a significant increase in Volume, the probability of the stock price continuing its strong trend is very high. However, the latest Candlestick has formed a doji, so caution is needed for the risk of a pullback after a spike. The short-term strong support level can be referenced around $238.
Technical Indicator
A golden cross has formed above the MACD zero axis, indicating that the bullish trend may continue, releasing a positive signal.
The K-line of KDJ has broken above 80, indicating that the stock price may be overbought, but in a strong upward trend, the KDJ Indicator may remain near the overbought area for a long time. Overall view of MACD shows that there is indeed a bullish signal, with a relatively low probability of reversing downwards.
Focus Direction
JPMorgan is still in a strong upward trend, having broken through the new high established in November. There is potential for it to continue rising in the short term, with a focus on the EMA 50-day moving average, and $238 may be a potential effective support. Of course, the most crucial influencing factors currently stem from regulations and policies. Investors need to pay attention to whether there will be a relaxation of regulations after Trump takes office, as this will fundamentally stimulate the banks to encounter new growth opportunities.
This content discusses Technical Analysis; Other methods, including Fundamental Analysis, may provide different perspectives. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect expected results. All investments involve risks, including the potential loss of principal; no investment strategy can guarantee success.
