Received key support from the Biden administration! Has Rivian's technology completely changed? (2024.11.27)

Hello everyone, this week's 【Technical Tracking】 will analyze Amazon's investment in the American electric vehicle "new force" — Rivian (RIVN). Near the end of President Biden's term, Rivian will be granted conditional loans of up to 6.6 billion USD. Following the announcement, investors reacted enthusiastically, and Rivian's stock price rose in response, soaring more than 13% at one point!

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On November 26, 2024 (Tuesday), the US Department of Energy announced it will provide Rivian with a loan of 6.6 billion USD to support the construction of a factory in Georgia that was previously put on hold due to funding issues.

Given that there are less than two months left in Biden's term, whether this loan will ultimately be realized remains uncertain. Additionally, with Trump's return to the White House opposing electric vehicle subsidies, there are variables regarding the disbursement of funds.

As a new player in the American electric vehicle market, Rivian has garnered widespread attention with its R1 series electric SUVs, trucks, and delivery vans. However, the price of the R1 series products is too high, exceeding 0.07 million USD, prompting the company to develop a more affordable R2 SUV to expand into the mass market. However, Rivian has failed to meet its planned production and sales targets, leading to rapid depletion of the company's funds.

The loan from the US Department of Energy is truly a timely help. In this regard, CEO RJ Scaringe stated that this loan will assist Rivian in expanding production in the US, launching more cost-effective and competitive R2 and R3 models, and is expected to be a strategic turning point for Rivian to enhance its market share in the electric vehicle sector.

Technical Analysis

Trend analysis:

The weekly chart shows that since its listing in 2021, Rivian's stock price has gone through a long and severe decline, dropping from a peak of 179 dollars at the beginning to a low of 8.26 dollars in April this year, a maximum decline of over 95%. This ongoing downward trend not only reflects the significant challenges Rivian faces in the electric vehicle market, but also highlights investors' concerns about the company's business development, financial situation, and long-term profitability.

Nevertheless, there have been some Bullish Signals recently on the daily chart. Rivian's stock price has broken through a downward Trendline that had persisted for several months, showing new upward momentum. This technical breakout suggests that investor confidence has somewhat restored, and the stock price may experience a short-term rebound.

Indicators interpretation:

● Rivian's short-term moving average is below the long-term moving average, indicating that the market trend is still dominated by the downward trend. However, there has been certain bullish momentum in the recent stock price, attempting to break through the 200-day moving average and temporarily positioned above this long-term watershed, which is a potential market reversal signal.

● The MACD Indicator has recently broken through the critical zero-axis position, marking the first occurrence of this important signal in the past three months, suggesting that upward momentum is strengthening, and market sentiment is shifting from Put to Bullish Signals.

● The RSI Indicator has also broken through the key 50 mark and has remained above this level for three consecutive trading days, indicating that the Bid strength continues to increase, or further consolidating the short-term upward trend.

● Pay attention to the potential Resistance around 13 dollars. This level is an important support point from three months ago and also a significant psychological barrier, which may lead to intense battles between bulls and bears.

Overall, Rivian's long-term stock price trend remains negative. Despite the recent bullish momentum and some Technical Indicators releasing positive signals, investors should not overlook the inertia of the long-term downward trend and should cautiously assess whether the rebound can be sustained, being wary of potential "Bull Market Traps."

This content discusses technical analysis; other methods, including Fundamental Analysis, may provide different perspectives. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect expected results.

All investments involve risks, including the potential loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful.