The stock price reached a new high at a crucial moment! Is Apple about to break through again? (2024.10.23)

Hello everyone, this week's 【Technical Tracking】 will analyze the highest Market Cap company in the US stock market — $Apple(AAPL.US)$ Apple's stock price reached a historical high for the first time in three months, and the company is set to release its Q4 Earnings Reports after the market closes on October 31, highlighting investor expectations for its performance.

Hot Events

On October 21, 2024 (Monday), Apple's stock price hit a record high after-hours market close, with a Market Cap reaching nearly $3.6 trillion. A week later, Apple will launch the official version of iOS 18.1. Since iOS 18.1 includes the Apple Intelligence feature, most fans are quite eager.

Apple hopes that AI features can stimulate users of older iPhone models to purchase new devices, bringing about a new wave of super upgrade cycles. Although Apple has faced some criticism due to the slow development of AI technology, CEO Tim Cook has clearly expressed Apple's stance on AI, simply putting it in eight words: 'Not first, but best.' He emphasized that while Apple may not be among the first companies to develop AI, it will provide AI in a manner that is best for users, ultimately making user experience 'completely different.'

On Wednesday (October 23), well-known Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released news that iPhone 16 sales were below expectations, stating that Apple has cut about 10 million units from the iPhone 16 orders for the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year, with most of the canceled orders being non-Pro models. Therefore, he has downgraded the production forecast for the iPhone 16 in the second half of 2024 from the originally estimated approximately 88 million units to about 84 million units.

Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that despite some people's optimistic view that Apple Intelligence could boost iPhone shipments, he believes that Apple's decision to cut orders at this time may indicate that there is not a high chance for this optimism to materialize, at least in the short term.

Technical Analysis

Trend analysis:

The daily chart shows that Apple's stock price reached an all-time high in mid-July 2024. Subsequently, the stock price corrected by more than 10% and has been in a consolidation phase in recent months, forming an ascending triangle pattern. As the stock price recently set a new historical high, the resistance level of the ascending triangle was briefly broken, but this strength did not last long, and the stock price quickly fell back inside the triangle.

Indicators interpretation:

The main moving averages for Apple show a bullish arrangement, meaning the short-term moving averages are above the long-term moving averages, reflecting a good upward trend.

The RSI indicator shows a slight bearish divergence, where the RSI did not exceed previous highs even as the stock price broke a new high, suggesting there is some downward pressure on the stock price in the short term.

Observing the KDJ indicator, which is more sensitive to stock price movements, the Candlestick briefly broke above the 80 overbought boundary, and then formed a death cross with the D line, indicating a short-term Put signal for the stock price.

Overall, although Apple's stock price has recently hit a historical high again and temporarily broke through the consolidation range of the ascending triangle, this momentum could not be maintained, indicating that the bulls' determination is not strong enough before significant events. The stock price of Apple has now entered a critical area, and as the ascending triangle range further contracts, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, with a breakout imminent. The next two major events, including Apple Intelligence and the release of Apple's Earnings Reports, will provide clearer clues for the market.

This content discusses technical analysis; other methods, including Fundamental Analysis, may provide different perspectives. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect expected results.

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