Master Shen vs. Jia Min Cai: Which will rise more, the Hong Kong stock market or Bitcoin?

This episode's guests: well-known stock commentator Shen Zhenying (Master Shen), co-founder of the Hong Kong Algorithmic Trading Research Center, Cai Jiamin.

"Futubull has reserved a seat" has a new venue, seeming to have a lineup as strong as the first time. First, let’s welcome the powerful Master Shen, and then the previous guest Calvin will continue discussing with us.

Question 1: What are your views on the property prices in Hong Kong?

Shen Zhenying: Firstly, I believe the decline in property prices has already formed, and secondly, we are still far from reaching the bottom. The main reason is that many factors are at play, and right now interest rate cuts and a low-interest environment are everywhere; essentially, the decline in property prices is not related to interest rates, and a one percentage point change in interest rates does not have much impact. The real factors for the decline in property prices, aside from being too high, could be that they exceed the reasonable price by too much, and people cannot bear the burden. Coupled with the economy, the main factor is the significant economic adjustment, making it very difficult for property prices to rise.

There is another more important factor, which is excessive margin and leverage. The banks are currently facing a Call loan crisis. Apart from the Call loan crisis, it may also trigger issues within the banking system, resulting in situations where liabilities outstrip assets.

Cai Jiamin: The downturn has formed, I think it's fifty-fifty, and it will take a while longer to reach the bottom; I agree with this point. I agree with many of Master Shen's views, but I disagree on one point: interest rates do relate to property prices.

By using data analysis, it's possible to accurately determine whether housing prices in Hong Kong have risen or fallen over the past 15 to 20 years by looking at rental yields and mortgage rates.

For example, when rental returns exceed mortgage rates, property prices rise; if rental returns are the opposite and mortgage rates exceed them, property prices fall. For instance, from 2008 to 2018, rental returns were higher than mortgage rates, and property prices kept rising. Property prices rose from 2008 until 2018; from 2018 to 2020, property prices hovered at high levels, such as the Centaline Property Index fluctuating between 180 and 190, when rental returns were on par with mortgage rates. By the third and fourth quarters of 2021, rental returns began to lag, falling below mortgage rates, which is why property prices have been declining since September 2021.

I should be the most accurate person locally because I often listen to experts talk about Stocks. In 2021, I made a post saying that property prices would start to fall, and they have been declining ever since. The media has been asking me every year in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 for my views, and I have consistently said that property prices will fall. For now, my judgment on property prices has proven to be correct.

Shen Zhenying: When it comes to judgments about the property market, I should be the most aggressive Real Estate Agent. In fact, the decline in property prices can be divided into two phases. The first phase is when prices exceed reasonable levels and need to drop. We were uncertain about when the drop would happen, and during that time, what we needed to do was advise people not to Buy property. Why? Buying property is not a short-term decision; it isn't something that can be easily exited like speculation in Stocks. Essentially, by 2016 and 2017, the property market was already at unreasonable levels, and the peak should have been between 2017 and 2019. By 2021, the downward trend was already established, and that was the time when people should not have bought property.

It's very simple. (In 2021) Li Ka-shing told Zhou Kaixuan that the storm is coming, and prior to that, he had already arranged to sell the Central Center. Li Ka-shing's sale already hinted at the economic environment, indicating that the housing market was bearish, but there was still a bit of upside left. This residual upside is for those willing to bear the risks. As everyone knows, those who bought the Central Center made money on paper in 2019 and 2020, but now they are all caught in a net.

Cai Jiamin: I just realized that the views align with those of the masters; we are both Bearish and do not support buying properties, thinking that our positions are different, but we actually have the same stance.

Shen Zhenying: In fact, I more clearly and earlier told everyone not to Buy property.

Host: You mentioned that the U.S. interest rates need to be reduced by at least 0.75% for housing prices to reach the bottom. FedWatch's forward-looking prediction suggests that there might be a 0.75% reduction by the first quarter of 2026. Will housing prices reach the bottom by that time?

Cai Jiamin: Typically, when rental returns and mortgage rates start to level out, housing prices will hover at low levels, so it is almost correct to say we are nearing the bottom. As for when the rebound will occur, it is when mortgage rates are 1% lower than rental returns, which is likely to be in the second half of 2026.

Question 2: Is it feasible to sell properties to Buy Bitcoin? How much can Bitcoin increase in the next two or three years?

Shen Zhenying and Cai Jiawen: It's hard to answer.

Cai Jiawen: I started saying to Buy in 2019. $比特币 (BTC.CC)$ In 2021, I started saying not to hold properties. Theoretically, if you started Buying BTC in 2019 and began saying not to Buy or hold properties in 2021, listening to the masters earlier, from 2017 to 2019 there was no property ownership. It makes no sense to ask me in 2025 when BTC has increased more than 10 to 20 times, and property prices have dropped by 30%. Why ask at this point?

Finally, it should be done early; it makes no sense to start now. We might all think that the property prices are about to bottom out, will selling properties now be too late? Better to continue holding onto the properties.

And one thing is that many people ask me whether they should sell properties if they own more than one, two or three properties. I would ask about the opportunity cost: where will the money go after selling? The money from selling will be used to service BTC, buying some assets with appreciation potential is acceptable. But some people sell properties and trade recklessly; if they always lose money, I would suggest not to trade recklessly and continue to hold properties. Money that does not rise or fall is better than gambling.

Shen Zhenying: I think the property market still has at least a 30% drop, definitely not at the bottom yet. So if you want to speculate by selling properties to Buy BTC, there might be a winning opportunity, but it’s not as favorable as BTC being at 20 to 30 thousand dollars during that time. Selling properties to buy gold now I believe is a win, but it’s not as favorable as asking people to buy gold at 1100 or 1200 dollars.

The only thing I believe is that selling properties to buy Hong Kong Stocks should have the highest chance of winning, because I estimate a significant potential upside for Hong Kong Stocks in the future.

Host: But what do you think about the future of BTC?

Shen Zhenying: My view has always been that even if Bitcoin rises to 0.15 million or 0.2 million USD, I would still not Buy, because I believe there is no future for Bitcoin.

Of course, there is potential for speculation, and I also believe that the large players and market makers won't back off so quickly, there is opportunity. But the upcoming volatility will be significant, for instance, from 0.1 million to 0.11 million, it could drop sharply to 0.06 million or 0.07 million, then rebound to 0.12 million or 0.13 million, such volatility is not something stable investors should engage in.

For investment, the most important thing for me is stable profit; without a 70% to 80% chance of success, why take the risk?

Cai Jiamin: Master, how high do you think Bitcoin will go?

Shen Zhenying: In the next three to five years, let’s look at it from a long-term perspective. The highest it will reach in the next six months is only 0.11 million USD, but in the next two to three years, or even one year, I think it’s better to consider the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios separately.

The most optimistic is 0.2 million USD, but even then I wouldn't engage; other stable assets might double, moving from 0.1 million to 0.2 million USD is just a 1x increase, and of course, it’s better to take stable risks.

This is still the most optimistic scenario; the pessimistic view is only 0.12 million or 0.13 million USD.

Cai Jiamin: Do you have any suggestions? What has the potential to double within a year?

Shen Zhenying: Hong Kong stocks $BABA-W(09988.HK)$ $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ $MEITUAN-W(03690.HK)$ These are very easy.

Alibaba has already doubled, rising from 60, 70 dollars to 120, 130 dollars. I believe that Alibaba will reach 200 dollars, and it won’t be too long.

Host: Calvin, I see your smile is a bit dim. Do you have any thoughts?

Cai Jia Min: I think that in the next three to five years, Bitcoin is expected to rise to 300,000 to 500,000 dollars, which is very optimistic.

If an asset rises to 200,000 to 500,000 dollars, or above 300,000 dollars, I would think it has potential after three to five years. What does having potential mean? It means the price will go up. This is one reason why I am bullish on BTC.

Another reason is that Bitcoin can easily rise two or three times, whereas Hong Kong stocks find it difficult to achieve a similar increase. This is where the divergence in today's program begins.

I think it is easier for Bitcoin to rise two or three times within three to five years, while Hong Kong stocks might have some difficulty. This is my own opinion and could be wrong; this can be verified by watching the video later.

Question three: How has the investment performance in Hong Kong stocks been in the past? When can Hong Kong stocks reach 40,000 points?

Host: Earlier mentioned stocks, does Calvin still invest in Hong Kong stocks?

Cai Jia Min: Yes, but it's done by the computer, I do not actively watch the market. The computer mainly deals with Futures.

Host: Are there any specific Futures mentioned?

Cai Jia Min: HSI Futures, mainly based on the index.

Host: What is the profit this year?

Cai Jiamin: 110% from the beginning of the year until now.

Host: What about Bitcoin in the past?

Cai Jiamin: Does it include trading Bitcoin (Futures), or is it just calculating the Bitcoin held? Including trading Bitcoin (Futures), it is also around 100% like the Hong Kong stocks.

Host: What about the difference in amounts?

Cai Jiamin: Very different. One is more than half a position, while the other is more than half the entire fortune trading Bitcoin, and perhaps less than 1% in Hong Kong stocks.

Host: Master, have there been more operations in the Hong Kong stocks in the first half or past year?

Shen Zhenying: No, it has been the same approach, there have been trades for fluctuation, but after each fluctuation, I will reduce positions, continuously around 100% more. If anyone has been following my comments closely, they would know that under my guidance, before each bullish wave, I successfully led everyone to get on board.

Last year and the year before, with the 8000-point and 3000-point increase in Hong Kong stocks, making real profits; each year, there are one or two waves, catching those two bullish waves is enough. It's simple to give an example; there is a warrant, of course, warrants are small bets, when I make 70,000 to 80,000, I will exit.

Host: When will the two upward waves be this year?

Shen Zhenying: The two upward waves this year should be in August, the upward trend will be in August, now is just a small wave; after the small wave there will be a corrective wave; the corrective wave could be substantial, do not underestimate it.

Host: Calvin, you posted your real account last October, and the profit was great, over 1 million. Has the performance this year solely from Futures been about the same?

Cai Jiamin: HSI Futures? About the same.

I used to watch the masters do shows when I was young; the first time I traded Hong Kong stocks was in 2007. I was 11 years old back then and watched often. Recently, the master often talked about 40,000 points; when do you think it will reach that?

Shen Zhenying: You should first look at 40,000 points and how I describe it. Based on current calculations, I estimate it will be within a year or two. I bet three years with Master Qi, actually it should be within a year or two, at least the high points this year might be 25,000 to 28,000 points, next year it should be above 30,000 points, whether it can reach 40,000 points depends on the timing.

Host: Does Calvin believe this?

Cai Jiamin: I think 40,000 points is a bit challenging, but... I will still prioritize BTC.

I am not Bearish on Hong Kong Stocks, nor do I have the courage to short sell. I often think that if opinions differ, one should short sell. Some friends never Buy BTC, and I tell them to have the courage to short sell, but they lack that courage.

Shen Zhenying: I once short sold BTC. It was around 60,000 to 700 million USD, many years ago, and it dropped to 15,000 USD. (So you sold it down) My ability is limited, but I did make some profits, selling 600 million down to 15,000 USD, which was a good return. But now is not the time to short sell BTC, it might fluctuate in July, dropping from 110,000 USD to 70,000 USD. If it hits that price (70,000 USD), I might need to Buy back, but I won't buy.

Host: Both doing well and being Bearish, everyone can make money flexibly. Thank you both for the interview!

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