Last year, Tesla founder Musk shared his experience of losing 9kg through Nove and Nord's “weight loss elixir,” sparking hundreds of millions of searches on social media such as TikTok. At the same time that weight loss pills are on fire, Norwood's stock price is also high. Recently, after weight loss elixir entered the European market,NORD'S MARKET CAPITALIZATION SURPASSES EVEN LUXURY LVMH GROUP TO BECOME THE HIGHEST VALUED COMPANY IN EUROPE.

So are weight loss pills really effective? What are the opportunities and risks of investing in weight loss companies? Some investors may want to say, “What do I do not know medical terminology?” It doesn't matter! He opened the door and said,This is an analysis article that is easy to understand。 Uncover the mystery of the popular weight loss drug industry chain together to uncover opportunities this season!

The principle of weight loss drugs: GLP-1,DishWhat is Megropeptide?

I am sure that most people have been watching their figure and even worrying about the need to lose weight. But when it comes to weight loss, people's first reaction is often to eat less, exercise, and more traditional ways. In recent years, with the deepening development of the pharmaceutical industry, a new approach that does not “rely on logic” - pills for weight loss, has gradually entered the public eye.

And weight loss pillsThe most crucial ingredientIt's an insulin called GLP-1 (glucose-like peptide-1).

Simply put, GLP-1 has the effect of lowering blood sugar and is therefore the first to be studied for the treatment of diabetes. However, the so-called “Heroes Don't Ask” has been proven by several academic papers that prove GLP-1It can promote satiety and thus reduce food and water intake, so this also gives birth to another use for GLP-1 — weight loss medicine.

Since GLP-1 is easily degraded in the body, the artificially synthesized GLP-1—GLP-1RA was born. Artificially synthesized GLP-1RA has a longer half-life and is not easily degradable and can be used to treat diabetes and obesity. So far, there are 7 types of GLP-1RA approved in the United States, which can be divided into long-acting, short-acting, and oral, depending on how they are taken and how long they work.

On this basis, let's take a closer look at the real protagonists of today —Simegropeptide(also known as Somaluropeptide).

Simegropeptide, a GLP-1RA drug, interacts with part of the brain's appetite suppression and satiety signals. It can not only achieve weight loss goals, but also reduce the risk of cancer, diabetes, and heart disease.

Currently, the FDA has approved only 6 weight loss drugs such as Smeagrupeptides, Liralupeptides, etc. Among them, somagropathide is noted for its best medicinal effect.

As of the end of 2022, the global GLP-1RA market has surpassed $224 billion, and Simegropeptide is expected to lead the GLP-1RA market with a 9.6% compound annual growth rate of sustainable growth between 2023 and 2032.

Business Wall in Norwood

Okay, speaking of this, Noah and Nord can finally be on the scene!

Novo Nordisk A/S is a leading global pharmaceutical company founded in 1923 and headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark. Engaged in the research, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceuticals globally. The company is divided into two parts: diabetes and obesity care, rare diseases.

The main ingredients in the company's listed weight loss drugs areLyraruptide's Saxenda Productsand the main ingredients areWegovy products from Simegropeptide,Both are injectable drugs. But as stated in the previous article,Simegropeptide for the best effect.

According to an analysis by the German bank, the number of prescriptions for the treatment of obesity in the United States using Novo Nord Wegovy has jumped exponentially since 2023, far ahead of other therapeutic drugs, hence its popularity.

It is worth noting that Norwood also has a productAn oral type of Smegaliptide called RybelsusandInjectable Simegropeptide, called OzempicBut these two drugsApproved as hypoglycemic drugsListed ones, that is, do not count as official weight loss pills in the strict sense.

But because of Noah and Nord.Wegovy demand explodes, and at the present stage there are shortages,Therefore, only limited inventory is available for sale by region. Norwood CEO Jorgense said that while Nove has invested billions of dollars to increase production, butWegovy's supply restrictions will last until next year.

Although it is not desirable, it is always more difficult to do! According to UCLA Health, healthcare professionals are looking for new ways to manage needs as people continue to grow in their interest in somegropeptides weight loss. Doesn't that mean that the active ingredient is Simegropeptide? Then change your mind and replace it with drugs containing active ingredients. Therefore,Many people use other drugs containing Simegropeptides, such as Ozempic and Rybelsus to achieve the goal of losing weight.

Norwood's success has been attributed largely to the success of both Wegovy and Ozempic injectable Smegrupeptides, and as a result of its earnings growth over the past few years, Nove has also reported spectacular revenue growth.

2023, according to a German bank forecastWegovy and Ozempic get more than half of Jano and Nord's revenue。 As these drugs continue to gain popularity among people who lose weight, and Wegovy is promoted to more markets,This ratio may rise further.

Fierce sales also lifted the company's profit expectations. This year, NorwoodAdjusted full-year financial forecasts three times。 Norwood CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgense said there will still be very high global demand for Wegovy for the foreseeable future. Sales growth in 2023 is currently expected to be 32% to 38%, and full-year profit before interest tax (EBIT) growth is expected to be 40% to 46%.

Norwood's valuation is so high, can I still vote?

With the rise in Nove and Nord's share price, investors are unavoidably associated with the success of weight loss pills. NORD'S SHARE PRICE HAS SURGED SINCE JANUARY 2023 VALUATION TO 14 OCT. THE STOCK HAS RISEN THIS YEAR53%, has increased over the past 12 months99%。 Let's take a look at this time,Stock prices seem to have reflected short-term growth, as of October 16, the rolling market earnings are46.6 times,and the expected market profit rate given by the marketOnly 36x, Sure from the surface valueUnattractive.

But in the long run, analysts at The Motley Fool believe that the company will continue to sell Ozempic and Wegovy in bulk and expect long-term profits to grow by an average of 20% per year.If the company is really able to continue to grow at a high pace on track, it will not be as expensive as it seems, with the expected growth.

Citigroup expects that Norwood's GLP-1 series will grow from $230 billion in 2023 to $730 billion in 2035. It raised the target price of the stock from DKK 600 to DKK 745,And maintain a buy rating.

What are the potential opportunities in the future for Norwood?

1. Enter the Global Market

With a population of about 3.35 million, a 42% obesity rate means the potential market will have as many as 1.39 million patients, less children (Wegovy is approved for children 12 and older), and in the United States alone, the opportunity to relate to tens of millions of people.

In addition to the United States, Norwood continues to promote Wegovy listings in European countries and regions. Nearly a third of UK adults are obese, the highest level in Europe, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

As of September 2023, the European countries that have already launched include Denmark, Norway, Germany and the United Kingdom. Entering Europe, Norte soon replaced French luxury group LVMH as Europe's most valuable company.

2. The effect is not limited to weight loss

According to the BBC, a new trial shows that Nowe Nord's Wegovy has also been shown to reduce the risk of stroke or heart disease in overweight people with heart disease by one-fifth, and experts agree the results could be significant. The regulatory process of adding “good for the heart” to drug labels could take most of next year, says CEO Norwood. In a trial called FLOW, GLP-1, in addition to aiding weight loss and blood sugar control, may delay chronic kidney progression and reduce the risk of kidney and cardiovascular death, according to analysts at Citi Bank. This experiment was stopped prematurely because the results were obviously effective.

Tips on Potential Risks for the Future of Norwood

1. Possible side effects of weight loss drugs

According to The Motley Fool, while these weight loss drugs have passed strict regulatory approval, they are still at a relatively early stage of development and it is difficult to determine what the long-term side effects are.

At the University of British Columbia in Canada, researchers concluded in an epidemiological study that Ozempic, as well as other GLP-1RA designed to suppress appetite, may lead to an increased risk of gastric paralysis. There are also media reports that using these drugs increases the risk of intestinal obstruction. In Europe, regulators are also concerned about whether they increase the risk of developing thyroid cancer. These symptoms and side effects may not be identified as risks in the clinical trial and, if confirmed in the future, could affect Norwood's corporate performance and stock price.

2. Competitor Risk

According to The Motley Fool, another risk facing Noah and Nord is potential competition in the future. People will naturally want to take the drugs with the highest weight loss rates, while pharmaceutical rival Eli Lilly is working to get its flagship product Mounjaro (a diabetes drug) approved as a weight loss drug; clinical trials show that it can not only help people lose weight, even Pinot and Norwood's Weed Ozempic and Ozempic also work well.

On the other hand, Pfizer has also been working on the development of the weight loss drug danuglipron, which has a similar effect to Ozempic, but the dosage is much higher.