Options Weekly | Market Braces for 'Super Week'! Earnings, Fed, and Trump in Focus

From the Options Week column, he brings his fellow investors the upcoming market hot spots and analyzes the options trading opportunities that are taking place. For those who are interested in this feeling, welcomeClick hereJoin Learning and receive a reminder when the next column is updated.

Fed meeting, waiting for Powell's “Good Afternoon”

On Friday, the US stock exchange welcomed a week of strong upside after the positive news of the recovery. According to data released by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, the September CPI registered a 3.0% year-on-year increase in the core CPI to 3.0%, below market expectations. Warm property prices are now taking the market's lead into a 25 basis point decline at this week's meeting, bringing the base rate down from 4.0%-4.25% again.

JPMorgan says CPI rise in September lower than expected, which is good news for the US Federal Reserve. The company has not obtained the producer price index (PPI) data, and the preliminary forecast for Core Personal Expenditure Expenditure (PCE) is 0.20%, which will increase from 2.9% to 2.8% in comparison.

Opportunity Interpretation

U.S. INFLATION IS BELOW MARKET EXPECTATIONS BUT THE CORRELATION IS STILL RISING SLOWLY, RISING FOOD AND ENERGY PRICES WILL PUT PRESSURE ON INFLATION IN THE FUTURE, AND FALLING RENTS AND USED CARS INDICATE THAT THE U.S. ECONOMY, ESPECIALLY IN WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT, IS PROPELLING FURTHER DOWNWARD IN THE FUTURE. As for October, the current US government is still closed and the October inflation data is still expected to be delayed.

On the interest rate forecast, the market's split price-setting ratios were 96.7% and 95.8% for the fall in October and December, which is expected to continue to be broad-based. The market started pricing policy rates at 2.75%-3%, and we see a bullish margin for short bond yields.

strategy presentation

The opening of the easing channel will benefit the Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors, and the Real Estate & Construction, Lending Institutions and Bank Rate Sensitive Industries will benefit more from the broader week. Economic data may fail to strengthen the Gold Rush, rule the Big Dials or acquire a trend that continues to rise, whereas the Big Dials may enter into a bearish Trade.

Directional Note Short-Term Bond Yield Downstream: For investors who are looking at a higher price trend, investors can proceed with bullish options on Treasury Futures or pegging short-term US bond yields.

Related symbols

Big Disk Indices: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ 、 $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$

Short-term debt: $iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF(SHY.US)$ 、 $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US)$

NVIDIA GTC CONFERENCE, ANOTHER FLAME?

FROM OCTOBER 27-29, EASTERN TIME, NVIDIA WILL OPEN THE GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE (GTC 2025) IN WASHINGTON, D.C. This is NVIDIA's first Technology Summit in Washington.

Opportunity Interpretation

The event, dubbed “GTC DC,” continues the San Jose GTC's “Woodstock Music Festival for AI” and “AI Super Cup,” focusing more on America's leadership in global AI innovation, and in-depth conversations in policy, industry, and academia.

FOR ABOUT A FEW MONTHS, NVIDIA HAS BOTTOMED AT JUST ABOVE $180, AND THE MARKET IS PREDICTING THAT GTC COULD BECOME A DIVISOR IN THE SHARE PRICE THIS TIME.

strategy presentation

From this week's options Gain Volume breakdown, the main group sees bullish options at $190 and $205, and bullish options at $190 and $205 in the main group. Based on current options market conditions, for investors looking at large GTC stock prices, it is possible to control the cost of a small-stock market with a single leg call, or a straight spread Call strategy. For investors who have already held positions on NVIDIA stocks or NVIDIA shares or are looking at a slightly bearish move, it is appropriate for investors who are following a bearish move to buy a BUY stock to hedge their bets.

Related symbols

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$

Welcome to the Earnings Reports!

This week, Microsoft, Yaoka, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will publish Earnings Reports. John Flood, a Goldman Sachs trader, said that the market would be well prepared for the recurring rise of the index level driven by the super capital technology-driven index if no errors were found in the Financial EarningsReports.

Opportunity Interpretation

Apples (after October 30)

Revenue for the quarter is expected to grow at US$102.088 billion, a year-over-year growth of 7.5%; EPS of US$1.76, a year-on-year growth of 81%. The market expects that the new iPhone 17 will boost sales, although the indications are that the lower price of the underlying model is more likely to lead to revenue growth and is not expected.

Microsoft (since October 29)

Revenue for the quarter is forecast at $75.387 billion, up 14.9% year-on-year; EPS is $3.66, up 10.9% year-on-year.

Google (after October 29)

Revenue for the quarter is forecast at $100.11 billion, up 13.4% year-on-year; EPS is $2.27, up 7% year-on-year.

Meta Platforms (after October 29 issue)

Revenue for the quarter is expected to be $49.388 billion, up 21.7% year-on-year; EPS is $6.72, up 11.4% year-on-year.

Amazon (after October 30)

Revenue for the quarter is forecast at $177.7 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year; EPS is $1.56, up 9% year-on-year.

strategy presentation

Yaoka is now priced at $260, hitting a new all-time high last week. The stock price fluctuated by about 6% after the announcement of the stock market, close to the previous trough IV by 42% and above the historical level of 87%, leading to higher option prices. The more the market (see the uptrend), Sell the more profitable the fall. Options OI: Support about $230, pressure about $280~285. Investors who are bullish on the long term can make a Short Put, Sell the Drop or Put Price Difference with Cash Insurance, avoid Sell and execute the price you want to choose the price difference, and avoid Sell and execute the price option that follows the price of the Stock Stocks, warning that a fall in the share price will occur.

Google is the company with the earliest public performance in AI-related symbols. It will prepare the tool for future challenges, such as the emergence of capital outflows, strong cloud business growth, or the AI model is capable of accelerating the progress of business MMF. Important Note: Broadcom (GUATPU) Release Expansion will highlight ASIC Requirements/Amazon (Cloud Business Needs Highlights/Meta) Advertising Business and Capital Support/Microsoft (Cloud Business Needs Highlights.)

Apple's and Microsoft's IV levels are no more than 30% in the lead-up to the upcoming Earnings Reports. Preferences are better than options, so investors who are hoping to take a directional look can place their listings by observing the rise/fall of the two Stocks.

Related symbols

$Apple(AAPL.US)$ 、 $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$ 、 $Meta Platforms(META.US)$ 、 $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ 、 $Amazon(AMZN.US)$

What happened at the APEC meeting this weekend?

From October 25 to 26, the Central American Trade Commissioner, Vice President of the National Court of Trade, President of the National Court of Trade, President of the United States, President of the United States Vincent and Representative of the Trade Representative for the United States held meetings in Hong Kong, Malaysia. The Sino-US bilateral balance demonstrated that this meeting was constructive, and it was an extremely successful framework that provided the basis for the bilateral leaders to discuss at the APEC meeting in South Korea.

Opportunity Interpretation

Geospatial uncertainty forecasts are good after all turns, the pullback for Risk Assets is immediately apparent, and market sentiment shows good outturns. Asian stocks rose on Monday, Japanese stocks, Korean stocks and Taiwan stocks set new all-time highs! The Nikkei 225 Index touched 50000 points, South Korea's KOSPI index hit a new 10-year high, the three major US overnight indices rose, Bitcoin and Ethereum split between $0.11 million and $4000.

strategy presentation

1. Index Bounce Betting

Investors can consider floating listings by looking at bullish options/bull market price spreads when the big plate position is low:

(1) Single-leg bullish strategy: Choose a term that is shorter (1 month to the left), the option price is flat or 3-5% off.

(2) Bull market sees price rally: At the moment, the big plate wave is showing drama, and the options market is hiding the volatility of the price, leading to higher prices of equity.

2. Make air fluctuation rate

Three major developments since the recent opening: 10/29 FOMC, 10/31 PCE data release and the development of Central US relations. We will allow the market volatility to rise before and after the volatility, and the options price will change accordingly. From historical experience, most major events end in no way beyond the market, and the outcome is in line with expectations and volatility reversals.

Therefore, investors who see the volatility can consider the Resistance and Resistance positions of the range indicator before the big event, to carry out the action of Selling Broad Options at a time when the volatility is high.

From the perspective of options open interest, the S&P 500's Resistance is near 6700, breaking below 6700 points on the day, and a further decline of 6600 points is possible. The upper resistance is located at 6800 points.

3.Low Absorption of Soil Sectors

In the event that the tax burden has decreased in quality in the past significant meeting, or if a step is taken in the middle of land management, the Land Sector in the US shares will be further adjusted. In the long term, Tar and other precious metals, in line with the US sovereign, can control the loss of the situation, while at the same time leading to the imprecision of the long-term US relationship against the occurrence of temporary upgrades, can be borrowed to adjust the construction of low-level warehouses.

Related symbols

Big Disk Indices: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ 、 $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$

Air-made Volatility: $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY.US)$

Soil Sectors: $USA Rare Earth(USAR.US)$ 、 $MP Materials(MP.US)$

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Futu Securities Analyst Wunbo

CE: BUI890

(The author is a licensee of the Securities and Exchange Commission and its affiliates do not have any financial interest in the proposed issuer of shares)

Disclaimer

This content does not constitute any agreement, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or warranty of any kind of securities, financial product or instrument. The risk of loss of trading options can be minimal. In the event of a bad bet, your winnings may exceed the amount of your initial deposit. Once you set up, you don't have to avoid loss by using an indication such as Stop or Limit Price. Market conditions may not be implemented using the same indications. You may be asked to deposit extra money within a short period of time. Vacation If you cannot provide the required amount within the specified time, your non-brokered contract may fail. However, you are solely responsible for any shortfalls in your Account as a result of this. Therefore, you need to research and understand options before buying, and depending on your person's financial situation and investment goals, carefully consider whether this type of sale is right for you. If you buy and sell options, you are responsible for exercising your options and options due date, and your rights and responsibilities when exercising options and options due.