Over 90% of NVIDIA's positions are betting on CoreWeave! With significant unlock pressure, should one buy on dips or short in the prevailing trend?

NVIDIA's latest investment landscape has been unveiled!

According to the 13F report submitted by NVIDIA to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as of the end of the second quarter, its core holdings remained unchanged, including data center operators $CoreWeave(CRWV.US)$ 、 $Applied Digital(APLD.US)$ 、 $NEBIUS(NBIS.US)$ ; chip design giant $Arm Holdings(ARM.US)$ ; AI healthcare company $Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US)$ ; and autonomous driving technology company $WeRide(WRD.US)$ 。

In the second quarter, NVIDIA's only operation was to increase its holdings in CoreWeave by 95,100 shares, significantly raising its stake from 78.17% to 91.36%.

PreviouslyNVIDIA's Latest Holdings Revealed! Among the Six Major AI Concepts, Which Has the Greatest Potential for Explosive Growth?I have previously analyzed these six companies in detail; interested mooers can click to view.

This article will provide a detailed analysis of why CoreWeave, which was the only stock NVIDIA increased its position in during the second quarter, has recently seen a significant drop in share price and how the market outlook appears. How should investors trade? As a leader in the global AI computing power sector, NVIDIA's capital allocation is becoming a strategic barometer for the development of the technology industry.

Why has CoreWeave's stock price recently plummeted?

In terms of stock price performance, CoreWeave's shares surged nearly fourfold since its listing. However, following news on June 26 regarding the acquisition of Core Scientific, the stock began to correct. To make matters worse, after announcing its earnings on August 13, the stock price fell over 30% cumulatively over two consecutive days.

Currently, CoreWeave's stock price is under pressure for three main reasons: 1. Flawed performance; 2. A large number of shares are set to be unlocked soon; 3. Potential dilution issues related to Core Scientific. Specifically:

I. Performance Issues

The company's revenue in the second quarter increased significantly year-on-year to $1.213 billion, benefiting from sustained strong demand for AI training and inference. However, the financial report also indicated that GAAP net losses widened to $290.5 million, exceeding market expectations, while the operating profit margin plummeted from 20% in the same period last year to 2%.

Management stated that the company continued to invest in data center expansion and GPU procurement this quarter to meet customer order demands, with backlog reaching $30.1 billion by the end of the second quarter.

Fangde Securities noted that traders and investors generally believe that despite the company's rapid revenue growth, profit performance has not met expectations. Coupled with high financing costs and ongoing losses, these factors have become major constraints on the stock price in the short term.

It is noteworthy that CoreWeave currently carries over $11 billion in total debt and continues to consume cash while expanding its network infrastructure. The company has accumulated significant debt to drive its expansion, including new loans secured against the value of AI chips.

Additionally, some analysts believe that the company's projected capital expenditures are on the low side, and that some expenditures have been postponed to the fourth quarter, which may signal a risk. Analysts at Morgan Stanley stated:

The delay in capital expenditures highlights the uncertainty in deployment timelines; as the actual implementation dates are pushed back, the revenues that can be recognized within the quarter will correspondingly decrease.

II. Large Stock Unlocking Approaching

According to data from FactSet, approximately 84% of CoreWeave's Class A shares will become unrestricted on Friday, primarily held by insiders, including co-founder and CEO Mike Intrator and key supplier NVIDIA.

A substantial volume of CoreWeave's shares will enter the trading market, potentially triggering price volatility. MoffettNathanson analyst Nick Del Deo noted in a client report on Wednesday: "It is currently impossible to assess the selling intentions of insiders, as ownership of the company is highly concentrated in their hands."

This event will also test whether the market's enthusiasm for AI infrastructure remains strong and whether the supply-demand relationship can continue to evolve favorably for CoreWeave. According to FactSet data, approximately 5.4% of CoreWeave's float is shorted, whereas the short ratio for Super Micro Computer, another server manufacturer driven by AI demand, is around 15%.

3. Potential equity dilution issues related to Core Scientific

In July 2025, CoreWeave announced it would acquire Core Scientific through an all-stock transaction. Under the terms of the merger agreement, Core Scientific shareholders will exchange each share of Core Scientific common stock for 0.1235 shares of newly issued CoreWeave Class A common stock.

Previously"Bitcoin Miners Ignite AI Fever! Which Other Companies Have Hidden Potential?"The article also explained that the market's tepid response to this acquisition is primarily due to the all-stock transaction method. An all-stock acquisition is a way of merging companies through equity exchange, where the acquirer uses its own stock to gain control of the target company, and the target company's shareholders become shareholders of the newly merged entity.

Its core advantage lies in avoiding cash expenditures and potential tax benefits, but the trade-off is that the equity of existing shareholders of the acquirer is diluted, and the transaction value is significantly affected by stock price fluctuations.

What is the outlook for the market?

Despite the current pressure on CoreWeave's stock price, some institutions remain optimistic. Market analysts believe that as long as the demand for CoreWeave's computing power remains strong, its shares are likely to continue being a hot investment target.

Citi stated that upon the expiration of the lock-up period, 83% of CoreWeave Class A shares will be "unlocked," but Citi believes that strong fundamentals will help absorb the increase in the float. The bank reaffirmed its optimistic outlook on AI demand and CoreWeave's ability to surpass recent revenue targets.

Additionally, based on CoreWeave's performance, the remaining revenue backlog has become a highlight, reaching $30.1 billion, an increase of 86% year-over-year. Chief Financial Officer Nitin Agrawal pointed out that the remaining revenue backlog has doubled year-to-date, which includes a $4 billion expansion agreement with OpenAI and new client orders from large enterprises to AI startups.

Previously, high customer concentration had raised concerns among investors, but the latest earnings call indicated that CoreWeave's customer base is increasingly diversified—covering multiple industries such as media and entertainment, healthcare, and financial services, with growing demand for AI applications across these sectors.

CEO Intrator also noted that many sovereign nations are indeed seeking world-class technological solutions to build the infrastructure that supports their AI ambitions. The company's collaboration with Cohere in Canada has been successful, and expansion into the European market is progressing smoothly.

How should investors trade?

Overall, CoreWeave's stock price is facing short-term pressure from the wave of lock-up expirations, while mid-term growth has a higher degree of certainty. The second-quarter performance indicates a strong ability to realize short-term results; however, there are multiple long-term challenges: high customer concentration, significant reliance on NVIDIA for GPU supply, a high leverage ratio combined with ongoing large-scale capital expenditures leading to persistently negative free cash flow. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that future challenges will include managing financing costs and optimizing capital structure.

Therefore, if investors are optimistic about CoreWeave's future trends, they may adopt a buy-on-dips strategy in roughly two phases: first, following a post-earnings decline, and second, if the expiration of the lock-up period on Friday leads to further market weakness, they can increase their positions again. For investors with a strong risk tolerance, the long-term demand outlook for artificial intelligence remains positive, but patience is required. Conversely, if there are concerns about the company's future performance, investors can utilize options to short the stock. Specifically:

For long-term investors who are optimistic about CRWV, given that CRWV's current implied volatility (IV) is at an extremely high level (as of August 14, the IV was 109.85%, with a historical percentile of 38%), they may consider employing a strategy of selling out-of-the-money put options. The advantage of this strategy is that it allows for purchasing the underlying stock at a relatively lower price while reducing the actual probability of assignment, and even in the event of assignment, the entry price of the underlying stock has a relatively safe margin.

For investors who are more bearish on the stock price, they can explore potential profit opportunities in a downward trend through put options or by constructing a bear put spread strategy.