Standing in the tuyere of the times: how to select excellent theme plates?

In the previous two issues of the industry theme fund, Niuniu shared the advantages and risks of the theme fund and introduced some mainstream sectors to you. However, there are many themes at present. High-end equipment manufacturing, state-owned enterprise reform, emerging industries, medicine, consumption and other theme funds are dazzling, how to select a good theme fund?

Let's take a look at this topic fund rookie selection guide.

The theme is not good enough? Look at these three dimensions.

Worried that the future of the theme fund you chose is not good? When judging the industry theme fund, we can consider it from these three aspects.

Looking ahead-- look at the news to buy funds

Looking back at history, we can find that the themes of policy benefits are often more prominent. For example, since 2014, from military industry to cyber security and information technology to new energy vehicles, the Silk Road Economic Belt "Belt and Road Initiative", and now artificial intelligence and 5G, and so on.

Although "look at the news to buy funds" is a bit exaggerated, it tells us to have a forward-looking perspective, pay attention to the latest policies, and find new outlets around policies, which is a good way to select funds.

At the same time, forward-looking also means the novelty of the theme, when a topic appears for the second time or has been paid attention to in a large area, its catalytic effect will be relatively weakened. So a good theme must be the first one put forward in the market-ask yourself if this theme is the most forward-looking in the market? Is there any policy support in the follow-up?

Influence-- it's not bad if you have a lot of space.

Influence often refers to dragon stocks, these enterprises with large room for development, in front of the enterprises, a theme may have 3-4, such as Tesla, Inc. in the field of new energy vehicles, domestic target NIO Inc. and ideal.

The so-called dragon stocks are the stocks with the biggest gains in this theme sector. only if they have a very large imagination space and the future market space cannot be saturated in a short period of time, the sustainability of this theme can be better.

Flexibility-Plan B leaves the way alive

The flexibility of the theme fund requires that we can guarantee to leave as soon as we finish the theme investment, which is related to the cycle of the theme investment and the style and ability of the fund manager.

Excellent fund managers can be said to be the Plan B we invest in. Even if we choose a less excellent track, they can try their best to maximize their returns, break through the traditional industry configuration, and have flexible cross-market and cross-industry configuration. Does your host fund manager have excellent timing ability? Can we flexibly adjust the style and position to invest in listed companies with high growth in the new economic cycle, growth-oriented or value-based?

How to choose the theme fund in the end?

Laying the groundwork for so much relevant knowledge, let's sum up, industry theme funds, in the end how to start to select it?

Catch the thief before you get the king: identify the investment industry

As we described above, first identify the industries we want to invest in, and choose those undervalued, long bull industries supported by policy data. For example, in the consumer sector, stimulating domestic demand and the real economy has always been the direction of the country's long-term efforts, and relevant enterprises and funds are naturally stable and can continue to increase in value.

Keep close to the market: look for a theme around the industry index

What complements the hot industries is the industry index. The industry index reflects the overall situation of some stocks in the industry. It has a good reference significance, and there is an industry index for some traditional topics, such as national defense, medical biology, media, electronics and so on. From the trend of the industry index, we can also find some clues to hot topics. For example, Blackrock World Gold and Gold Index have great similarities in the trend of nearly half a year.

Hug your thighs: looking for signals from the theme of fund companies issuing new funds

Some retail investors want to keep up with the industry rotation and grasp the business cycle of each industry, even without foresight, in fact, it is very difficult to operate, because it requires a very strong ability of macro analysis and data integration and analysis. it also needs a lot of high-frequency, timely and accurate data as support, and a lot of field research in order to grasp the changes in various industries.

Therefore, to buy passively managed industry funds, it is better to buy active ones and hand over the work of research to people who trust them. Compared with ordinary investors, fund companies are more likely to grasp the "good" theme in the market. We can look for signals from the theme and quantity of its new fund. For example, fund companies issued new energy, industrial revolution 4.0, new finance and other themes. Then take these as keywords, search for relevant material, and determine whether it is your favorite topic or not.

The last and most important thing is the timing of the entry of the theme fund. Should we enter now or not? We can judge from more details of the fund.

Admission details: pay attention to the region and style of investment

01 investment style box: the scale of the fund should not be too large or too small

There are two main categories of investment styles: according to the size of investment companies, that is, large-cap stocks, medium-cap stocks and small-cap stocks, and according to the characteristics of investment companies, that is, value, balance and growth. In fact, the scale is easy to understand, just look at the market capitalization, and the characteristics are more difficult to distinguish, mainly by looking at Phammer E, Pamp B and the dividend rate to judge.

With the overlap of the two categories, about 9 categories can be made, which is the investment style box.

02 pay attention to the investment region of the fund

In fund investment, region is a factor that is easy to be ignored, which can be divided into two categories according to the region of fund investment:

(1) funds investing in the domestic securities market: refers to investment funds whose capital comes from the domestic market and invests in the domestic market.

(2) investing in QDII funds in foreign markets: QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor-qualified domestic institutional investors) means that domestic financial investment institutions approved by the CSRC invest our money in overseas capital markets. It is an investment choice for overseas asset allocation and can better spread risks.

In the briefing of each fund, we can directly see its investment location, the investment in developed areas is mainly value, and the investment in emerging countries is mainly growth. Take Franklin Technology Fund as an example:

03 it is not suitable to invest in industries and theme funds with high valuations

The volatility of the stock market is large, and the stock price can significantly deviate from the intrinsic value. This is reflected in the valuation that industry index and theme index can be very low when undervalued and high when overvalued. Therefore, for investors, it is easier to get satisfactory returns by choosing undervalued industries or theme values, while overvalued industries and themes are easy to cause losses.

From this point of view, buying with low valuations and selling in batches when valuations are moderate or high is a strategy that can outperform most people.

Conclusion

For ordinary investors, the better investment strategy for industry funds and theme funds is to underestimate the diversification cycle, that is, to choose a few such funds that are undervalued, low, relatively unpopular and optimistic about their own prospects. and exit in batches when they become popular. In this way, it is easier to avoid the dangerous side of the double-edged sword and get a satisfactory return on investment.

In the next few days, Niuniu will explain the fund choices in practice in detail from the four sectors of consumption, medicine, science and technology, and gold.