[Tan Sir Talks Stocks 25.2.28] In February, Hong Kong stocks performed well, you need to know about chasing the lagging Concept.

Video highlights:

• In February, Hong Kong stocks outperformed Global Assets.

• U.S. stocks are facing short-term adjustment pressure.

Hello everyone, mooers. This video was freshly recorded today. Here are some key points from today's video:

*The video is in Cantonese. If any mooers do not understand Cantonese, they can turn on the AI subtitles in the upper right corner of the video (the cc icon).

1. Hong Kong stock market

• The Hong Kong stock market performed significantly in February, driven by Technology stocks. The emergence of DeepSeek changed market sentiment, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 16% in February, and the Technology Index even increasing by over 22%. This marks the third-largest single-month increase since the indices bottomed out in 2022. Although the rate of index increase has weakened with each instance (November 22 > September 24 > February 25), it is determined to be a healthy and reasonable indication from a mooer market perspective. The most important thing is that the overall wave remains above the previous wave, and the upward trend continues.

• The indices have accumulated a lot of gains this month, so a slight adjustment is very reasonable. There are signs of weakening in the technical trend on the hourly chart in the second half of February, so while investors are bullish, caution is also needed for short-term adjustments.

• Short-term speculation should not be too aggressive; strong stocks may need to wait for a pullback to the 10-day and 20-day moving averages before buying. If the 20-day moving average is breached, it is necessary to be even more cautious.

• Be careful with high-leverage or near-expiration options as there is a risk of high IV.

• At the end of February, capital flow trends towards laggards, with Consumer and Mainland Real Estate stocks being sought after. However, there are several risks associated with chasing laggards, so it is important to choose stocks with genuinely strong fundamentals.

2. US Stocks

• This week shows a clear pattern of 'East rising, West falling', but as mentioned in the article, this is likely temporary. The USA is experiencing a RISK OFF environment due to CPI and Trump’s policies, while Hong Kong stocks are experiencing RISK ON due to valuation reassessment. With a drop in US debt yields, there is hope for a stabilization in the US stock market's downward trend, and any rebound will rely on technical analysis to determine the right moment to act.

Just a gentle reminder about NVDA; both the performance and guidance are strong, but its valuation largely reflects this. Such stocks are awkward for short-term operations; those who are bullish have already bought in, and now chasing the price comes with the entire US stock market's hedging risks. For short-term considerations, keep an eye on the support level at the 250MA of 118, and anticipate bullish factors from the GTC conference.

3. CRYPTO

• With the US stock market in a RISK OFF mode, Cryptos naturally cannot escape, and BTC also broke through important support levels this week.

• The previous range of 92,000 to 106,000 has been broken, and the measured decline indicates a test of 78,000. This is also an important support level for BTC daily chart MA250. Overall, the determination is similar to that of the USA stock market.

(The above content is for educational purposes only and does not involve any recommendations)

(Tam Chi Lok is a licensed person of the SFC. Neither he nor his associates have any financial interests in the above recommended issuers)