Hello everyone, this week's 【Technical Tracking】, let's analyze $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Tesla just announced its Q1 performance, unfortunately, all key indicators fell short of expectations. The good news is that Musk has stated he will step back from DOGE and focus primarily on corporate management. Stimulated by this news, the stock price quickly rebounded nearly 5%. However, Tesla is currently facing the dual pressure of declining sales and tariff issues, making the future trend highly uncertain. How should the market be viewed moving forward?

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Specifically, Tesla's Q1 revenue was 19.341 billion, lower than the expected 21.433 billion yuan. The main reason is that the Cars Business dragged behind, with significant deviation from expectations. Among them, the sales price and gross margin of Cars in Q1 did not show significant changes compared to the previous quarter, while the sharp decline in delivery volume is the core reason for the revenue decline.

Since Q1, Tesla's Cars Business has encountered many negative factors. Firstly, Musk's politicization of operations has led to a brand crisis, with consumer boycotts in the European market and protests in the US market advocating to 'support electric vehicles, oppose Musk', causing sales to plummet.

Additionally, in the Chinese market, Tesla faces strong competitors such as the Zhijie R7, and the soon-to-be-released Xiaomi YU7, which are both models designed to compete with the Model Y, offering better cost performance in comparison. Even with Tesla frequently launching promotional policies, it is difficult to conceal the downward trend.

Furthermore, changes in the global policy environment have also posed significant challenges for Tesla. Countries such as France and Spain have reduced electric vehicle subsidies, and after the adjustment of the US IRA Act, some models will lose tax advantages. The increasing uncertainty from the China-US tariff dispute will raise vehicle purchase costs and affect consumer choices.

However, there are also some positive signals. Musk claimed that he would reduce political involvement and accelerate the rollout of low-cost car models and FSD; Trump also stated that he is very friendly towards China, indicating that the final tariff rate with China will significantly decrease from the current 145%.

In fact, the positive sentiment brought by these news is more effective than the actual performance, resulting in a rebound of Tesla's stock price.

Technical Analysis

Trend Analysis

The weekly chart shows, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$In recent years, the trend fluctuations have been very large.

At the end of 2021, the stock price reached a historical high of 414 dollars. Subsequently, due to interest rate hikes in the United States, a decline in electric vehicle sales, and factors such as Musk's acquisition of Twitter, the stock price plummeted to a low of 101 dollars by early 2023.

After hitting the bottom, the stock price entered an upward channel, but soon turned into a downward trend. Until November 2024, when Trump won, the market generally believed that Musk would be one of the main beneficiaries, causing Tesla's stock price to double. However, the good times did not last, as a series of policies implemented by Trump after taking office failed to bring the expected positive effect to Tesla, and the stock price fell back to its original point.

Looking again at the daily chart, Tesla's stock price has retreated by more than 40% from the beginning of the year until now and is currently in a clear downward trend. The 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200) have formed a death cross, which is often seen as a strong signal of a medium-term downward trend, indicating that the stock price is unlikely to reverse quickly in the short term.

Indicator interpretation.

• Referencing the Fibonacci levels, Tesla's stock price has continuously retraced from a high of 488 USD, reaching a low of 214 USD, nearly adjusting to the 100% level of the Fibonacci retracement, and forming important support around 212 USD. The resistance above can be referenced at 320 USD; if the stock price can effectively break through this resistance level, a further rebound is expected.

• Volume analysis: Recently, the stock price has fallen accompanied by high Volume, indicating strong market selling pressure. However, after the earnings announcement on April 22, the stock price surged while Volume also increased significantly, showing a short-term optimistic sentiment in the market. It remains to be seen whether this sentiment can continue, and close attention should be paid to the changes in Volume.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current RSI has risen from the oversold area to around 40, which usually triggers a technical rebound. However, it is important to note that a simple technical rebound is unlikely to form a trend reversal, and a true reversal in stock price still requires the support and improvement of the fundamentals.

Overall, Tesla's stock price has gained important support in the short term, and influenced by bullish sentiment, there is a certain opportunity for a rebound. However, to achieve long-term value return, it still relies on a comprehensive improvement in Tesla's fundamentals, including a rebound in car sales, a strong performance in the energy storage business, breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology, and the commercialization progress of humanoid robotics. Investors should closely monitor changes in the above factors when observing Tesla's stock price movement to make more informed investment decisions.

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