Trade Mini Course - Technical Tracking
Tesla's deliveries are lower than expected, but can the stock price rebound again? (2024.1.2)
Hello everyone, this week's Technical Tracking, let's analyze the global electric vehicle leader- $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ . Last week, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ announced the delivery data for 2024, which fell short of market expectations, leading to a sharp 6% drop in stock price.
So the key question is, will the delivery situation in 2024 lead to a bearish outlook for 2025? $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ On the first trading day of 2025,
Hot Events
released the full year delivery and production report. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$
The fourth-quarter automobile delivery volume was 0.496 million vehicles, setting a new quarterly record, but lower than the analysts' expected 0.505 million vehicles. At the same time, the full-year delivery volume was 1.79 million vehicles, below the expected 1.8 million vehicles. After the announcement, the stock price plummeted significantly, breaking through $400, marking a five consecutive decline.
Apparently, the start of 2025 is not very promising, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Looking back at the full year of 2024, Tesla recorded a cumulative increase of 63%, reaching a historical high in mid-December. In the past year, Tesla not only maintained its position as the global leader in electric vehicles but also made breakthrough progress in battery technology, charging networks, safety systems, software updates, and AI.
Let's take a simple look back:
Battery technology: Tesla successfully manufactured 0.1 billion 4680 batteries, laying the foundation for improving the range and performance of electric vehicles.
Software updates: In 2024, Tesla provided car owners with over 300 new features through free OTA updates, including advanced Summon, which allows vehicles to automatically drive towards the owner from any parking space. Additionally, the FSD V12 technology was updated, improving the user driving experience and marking a significant leap in autonomous driving technology.
AI: The Optimus robot has begun autonomous operation, with robots in Tesla factories performing battery sorting tasks. According to Musk's plan, it is expected that by the end of 2025, over 1000 Optimus robots will be deployed on Tesla production lines, with mass production planned for 2026. The future price of Optimus may be around $20,000, with demand reaching 1 billion units per year. Another significant breakthrough is the Robtaxi self-driving taxi, including the two-seater Cybercab and the 20-seater dual-purpose passenger and freight vehicle Cybervan, which have successfully demonstrated the potential of Robtaxi at the October event.
Energy business: Powerwall deployments hit a new high, with global Powerwall installations reaching 0.8 million units. Additionally, Megapack production has reached 200 units per week and is operational in over 60 countries, with a total power generation capacity exceeding 22GWh.
In summary, the achievements of 2024 have shown everyone Tesla's leading position in technology and market competition, while also conveying its determination to change the world's transportation ecosystem. The core focus of 2025 will be on the improvement of FSD technology and Robtaxi. James Sohn, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, stated, "My long-term argument for 2025 is based on robots, robot taxis, and autonomous driving." He also insists that Tesla will achieve a valuation of 2 trillion dollars in 2025.
It is evident that the market still has high expectations for Tesla! So, from a technical perspective, how should we view Tesla's trend?
Technical Analysis
Trend Analysis
Looking at the weekly chart, since the beginning of 2024, Tesla has continued the downtrend from 2023, with the stock price fluctuating below the $269 resistance level, dropping to a low of $138.8 in April.
Following the release of Tesla's Q1 performance in 2024, there was a turning point in the trend. However, the reason was not due to performance exceeding expectations, but because Musk announced plans to accelerate the launch of a "more affordable new car model, Model 2," and to "increase AI investments." As a result, the stock price rebounded by 12% from oversold levels.
Of course, the real surge came after the election, as Trump's new policies will support the autonomous driving revolution. Starting from November 5th, Tesla surged, breaking through the ascending triangle pattern and continuing its uptrend, achieving a 97% increase. By the end of 2024, after hitting a historical high of $488.5, Tesla retraced for three weeks in a row without showing any clear signs of bottoming out.
Looking at the daily chart, Tesla has formed a head and shoulders pattern, and the stock price has now fallen below the neckline (around $415), indicating a high probability of further decline. The potential downside could be equal to the distance from the high point to the neckline, approximately around 11%. In fact, due to the impact of Thursday's delivery data, the retracement from the neckline has already reached 8%, suggesting there may still be some room for further adjustment.
Indicators Analysis
Referring to the EMA12 and 50-day moving average, it can be seen that the short-term key support is around $362. If the stock price falls below this support level, it may indicate further downward movement, so it is important to carefully monitor the volatility at that level.
MACD indicator has shown a death cross, indicating a short-term Put signal, suggesting there may still be room for further decline in the stock price.
RSI falling below 50 indicates the current stock price is relatively weak, but considering its proximity to the oversold zone, there may be signs of a short-term oversold rebound.
In addition, astute friends can verify the short-term support level once again through the Golden Ratio line. Since the high point, the stock price has dropped below the 38.2% support level (around $382) and is testing the 50% support level (around $350). Generally, the most important retracement points of the Golden Ratio line are 38.2% and 61.8%. Experienced traders believe that once the 61.8% level is effectively broken, it signals the end of the previous trend and a complete reversal from retracement to a full reversal.
Subsequent Directions
In the short term, we can focus on the key level of the EMA 50-day moving average at $362; additionally, combined with the Golden Ratio line, the next levels of 50% ($350) and 61.8% ($317) are likely to be further tested. Around $350 coincides with the previous support level, increasing the possibility of a rebound at this point, so it is recommended to pay close attention.
In addition, the company will announce the 2024 Q4 performance after January 29. On January 20, there will also be the Trump inauguration, these factors may all lead to significant price volatility. mooers can stay tuned, adjust their stock or options positions in a timely manner, and actively respond to changes.
This content discusses technical analysis, while other methods, including Fundamental Analysis, may provide different perspectives. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect expected results. All investments involve risks, including the potential loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful. Thorough
