Tesla has made a bold move! For the first time, "new car autonomous driving will be delivered to your door." Can July unfold a "lucky month" script?

This weekend, a moment significant enough to be recorded in history quietly arrived.

On June 27th, Musk announced that a $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ Model Y had autonomously driven from the company's factory near Austin to a customer's home without any human intervention. He emphasized that this delivery "crossed the town," the route included highways, and there was no one in the car, nor any remote operator intervening.

This is the first time in human history that a car has fully driven itself from the factory to the customer's hands.

Analysts pointed out that Tesla's first fully autonomous delivery highlights Musk's bet that artificial intelligence and robotics technology will lead the future development of his electric vehicle company. Some media outlets also stated that this means buying a car will be as simple as ordering takeout—placing an order through an app, and it will be automatically delivered to the doorstep.

Over the weekend, topics such as "Tesla's first self-delivery to vehicle owners" and "Tesla disrupts traditional transportation" surged onto the hot search lists across major platforms, attracting extensive media coverage.

Xiaomi founder, chairman, and CEO Lei Jun quickly congratulated and stated, "Tesla is indeed remarkable, leading industry trends in many areas, especially FSD. We still have more to learn!"

As many bloggers have stated, the implementation of Tesla's smart assist driving technology is not only a breakthrough in innovative technology but also has the power to change the world.

The market generally indicates that Tesla's breakthrough not only showcases its peak capabilities in AI and autonomous driving technology but also opens a new chapter for the commercialization of driverless applications. Although safety and legal issues still need further validation, this 30-minute journey has already proven that the future is no longer a dream.

In addition to the stunning market impact of full autonomous driving delivery by Model Y, Musk revealed over the weekend the astonishing blueprint of his Brain-computer Interface company Neuralink—humans may hope to directly control humanoid Robotics under Tesla through Brain-computer Interface in the future.

According to the information disclosed by Neuralink, there have been 7 implant surgeries completed globally, and patients have already been able to perform several new operations through the "telepathic" product, such as multiplayer online gaming, controlling robotic arms with thoughts, and drawing with Fusion 360, with expectations to connect to Tesla's Optimus hand in the future.

To this end, Neuralink has announced its three-year plan—

By the end of 2025: implant devices in the speech cortex to decode silent "intended speech," that is, directly decode conscious words from brain signals and convert them to speech.

By 2026: increase the number of electrode channels to 3000 and explore restoring sight to the blind, with initial goals of low-resolution visual restoration, ultimately aiming to enable humans to have superhuman multi-band vision to see radar, infrared, and ultraviolet.

By 2027: increase the number of electrodes to 0.01 million and achieve multi-device implantation for the first time (motor cortex, speech cortex, or visual cortex).

By 2028: increase the number of electrodes to 0.025 million, fully connect any area of the brain, reach deeper brain areas to treat mental diseases, neuropathic pain, etc., and explore deep integration with AI, hoping all of humanity can connect with AI.

It is worth noting that Musk hopes to eventually mass-produce Robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robots to support Tesla's next phase of development. The two major events over the weekend also ignited investors' expectations for the future.

It is pleasing to note that Statistics of past data reveals that July has also been a "lucky month" for Tesla. In the past ten years, Tesla's stock price has increased in seven Julys, achieving a probability of 70%; among them, both July 2020 and July 2022 saw significant increases, with gains exceeding 32% in both months.

What challenges will Tesla face in July?

Looking ahead to July, Tesla also has two critical points, namely the expected delivery volume on July 2 and the Q2 Earnings Reports in mid to late July.

According to FactSet data, the market expects Tesla's Q2 delivery rate to rebound to 0.393 million units, but it remains far below last year's corresponding delivery figure of 0.444 million units.

However, Wall Street major firms are generally pessimistic about the delivery data for the second quarter.

Based on actual sales data from April and May, along with historical seasonal factors from June, HSBC predicts that second quarter deliveries will remain flat quarter-on-quarter, which is 15% lower than market expectations, with an 8% downside risk in operating income. HSBC Analysts point out that Tesla's weak sales are due to aging products, intensified competition, and concerns about brand image, with the new Model Y facelift having a limited effect on boosting sales.

UBS Group predicts that Tesla will announce the delivery data for Q2 2025 on July 2, with Q2 deliveries around 0.366 million units, an 18% year-on-year decline, a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase, but still 10% lower than market expectations.

UBS Group stated in a report that due to investors focusing on Tesla's self-driving taxi Robotaxi, many bulls are expected to "ignore" the electric vehicle delivery data, as they believe the value of Tesla Stocks lies in Artificial Intelligence (robotic taxis and humanoid robots). However, UBS Group emphasized that Tesla's current financial performance mainly relies on its Cars Business. This business not only helps fund frontier operations but also, with rising stock prices and a deteriorating outlook for the Cars business, the market injects a higher premium into the already expensive Artificial Intelligence options, despite scant supporting data.

UBS Group also mentioned that delivery volume reports that fall short of expectations could serve as a wake-up call. Historical Data shows that delivery volumes not meeting expectations tend to trigger a drop in Tesla's stock price, but the anomalies from the previous quarter are worth noting: despite deliveries being 11% lower than market expectations, Tesla's stock price rose 5%, marking the largest divergence since 2022. This may suggest that Tesla has further entered a world where 'Cars fundamentals do not matter.'

UBS Group also mentioned that the stock price fluctuations triggered by delivery volume may be temporary, with the upcoming Earnings Reports being the main event. Although Tesla's second-quarter Earnings Reports are unlikely to be optimistic, CEO Musk may fully depict his future vision during the conference call.

However, as a major bull on Tesla, Wedbush Analyst Dan Ives raised Tesla's target stock price from $350 to $500, stating, 'The golden age of autonomous driving has now reached Tesla's doorstep.'

Benchmark Company stock analyst Mickey Legg raised Tesla's target stock price to $475.

Legg admitted that Tesla is expected to announce relatively weak second-quarter delivery volumes in early July, but he believes that the company's electric vehicle business is fundamentally doing decently. Although there is still room for improvement in electric vehicle sales with the launch of new low-priced models, this is not the reason for his optimism.

It stated that in their view, the company is undergoing a transformation from a pioneering Car (original equipment manufacturer) into a high-tech automation and Robotics company with unmatched domestic manufacturing scale.