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Hello, this week's Tech Tracking analyzes one of the most recent relative losers among the Tech Seven Giants — Tesla (TSLA)$Tesla(TSLA.US)$.
Hot Spot Events
Tesla announced a price increase, followed by a rise in the share price.
Tesla's share price has finally enjoyed a “long run” rally. The stock closed up 6.25% on Monday (March 18th), marking its biggest one-day gain this year.
Tesla announced a price increase of around €2,000 for Model Y electric cars in some European countries, effective March 22; and a price increase of $1,000 in the United States, effective April 1.
To be aware, the electric car price war has been raging for more than a year, the iconic event of which was the sudden announcement by Tesla at the beginning of last year that its flagship model was sharply reduced in price in various markets. Especially in the Chinese market, the volume in the industry has increased steadily so far. TESLA'S PROFIT RATE HAS CONTINUED TO SLIDE SINCE THE PRICE WAR BEGAN, AND THE MARGINAL EFFECT OF “PRICE SWAP” IS NOTICEABLY DECREASING.
This launch of a “reverse price war”, although small in scope, can boost investor confidence, and the share price reaction illustrates this well.
However, Tesla's short-term prospects appear to be weakening. IPO Volkswagen announced on Monday that it was lowering its Tesla target price from $220 to $190, maintaining a “neutral” rating, based on concerns over Tesla production and market conditions. COXING'S LATEST FORECAST IS THAT TESLA Q1 AND FULL-YEAR DELIVERIES WILL BE 43.5 MILLION AND 198 MILLION, RESPECTIVELY, BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 47.5 MILLION AND 208 MILLION VEHICLES.
It is worth mentioning that Tesla has performed the worst this year among the “tech seven giants” in the US. In terms of trading volume, Tesla's head is also gradually being overtaken by the AI-powered genius. Considering that the stock price has fallen by more than 30% in more than 2 months, many people may have the following question: Is it time for Tesla to steal?
Technical analysis
Tesla's overall share price has been on a downward trend since the second half of last year. Currently, the stock price is hovering at a 10-month low, with some signs of a short line bounce.
Trend analysis:
1. Tesla released Q2 2023 results as price battles led to a sharp drop in profit margins and a 10% plunge in its share price, marking the beginning of this round of losses.
2. TESLA ANNOUNCED Q3 2023 RESULTS, WITH REVENUE AND PROFIT FALLING SHORT OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS, AND THE SHARE PRICE FELL MORE THAN 9% AGAIN.
3. Tesla released Q4 2023 results, well ahead of market expectations, and warned that the growth rate in 2024 could be significantly lower than 2023, causing its share price to slump by 12%.
Three reports, three falls. Tesla doesn't seem to be giving investors a good deal, and investors are putting the stock price into trading.
Indicator Interpretation:
While Tesla is in a downtrend overall, there are some positive hints on some momentum swing indicators.
For example, the chart shows that the Tesla MACD indicator is nearing a cross, and the backwardation signal is very clear; the KDJ is a cross bar below the 20 oversold line, a potential short buy signal; the RSI also shows a backwardation and rises above the 30 oversold line.
From the 4-hour chart, the above technical indicators have similar characteristics.
Direction of attention:
In terms of the mid-term trend, Tesla is still largely in the downtrend, and even if there is a possible next bounce, it will not be able to reverse the downtrend at half time.
In the descending channel, technical traders can appropriately adopt a range trading strategy to control the profit-and-loss margin while keeping an eye on the rebound of the two gaps near $185 above and $165 below.
This content discusses technical analysis, and other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may provide different perspectives. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect the expected results.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal, which cannot guarantee the success of any investment strategy.
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