The "OBBBA" has officially come into effect! The industry landscape is very different, who are the winners and losers?

On July 4 local time, U.S. President Trump signed the 'Great and Beautiful' tax and spending bill into law. The 'Great and Beautiful' bill is a flagship legislative agenda introduced by Trump after his return to the White House in early 2025.

This legislation marks a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy, moving away from the clean energy investments and social safety expansion of the Biden era, towards a continuation of the tax cuts, increased defense spending, and enhanced immigration enforcement policies from Trump's first term, drastically cutting funding for Medical programs, food assistance, and clean energy projects.

It is worth mentioning that the 'Great and Beautiful' bill will have profound long-term impacts on various sectors in the United States. So, who will benefit from the bill? Who will see their interests harmed?

Futubull has organized the relevant winning and losing industries as well as some benefiting stocks for investors' reference:

Who are the winners?

Winner 1: Chip manufacturers

The 'Great and Beautiful' bill stipulates that the tax credits for chip manufacturers building new factories in the U.S. will increase from 25% to 35%. Eligible new projects must commence construction by the end of 2026. This bill will significantly reduce the expansion costs for manufacturers or incentivize $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ 、 $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ This accelerates the implementation of projects in the United States. The bill emphasizes the continued increase in import tariffs, including those on semiconductor manufacturing equipment and advanced chips.

According to CITIC Research Reports, tax incentives combined with previous tariff threats from the Trump administration are expected to accelerate the return of advanced wafer manufacturing (foundry, IDM, etc.), as well as key IT components & complete machine manufacturing (Consumer Electronics, data centers, etc.) to the U.S., which is bullish for the semiconductor equipment and wafer foundry industries in the short to medium term.

Previously, the 'AI semiconductor value chain' was outlined, interested mooers can click to view:

Winner 2: NENGYUANHANGYE

The bill opens federal land and waters for Oil & Gas exploration and development, overturning the restrictions previously set by the Biden administration. According to regulations, there will be 30 lease auctions in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 15 years, with over 30 leases conducted annually on federal land in 9 states, and allowing the Oil & Gas industry access to Alaska. The law also reduces the royalties that companies must pay when extracting Oil & Gas on federal land.

The Wall Street Journal reported that petrochemical companies are major winners, and Oil & Gas lobbyists describe this bill as a home run, allowing firms to deduct certain drilling and development costs and revive lower royalty rates.

Investors can pay attention to $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ 、 $Chevron (CVX.US)$ 、 $Shell (SHEL.US)$ And companies.

Winners 3: Airlines.

The 'Big and Beautiful' bill includes a fund of 12.5 billion USD to reform America's air traffic control system.

Airline executives generally support the plan and have previously pointed out that outdated facilities are the root cause of flight delays. Industry organizations will also view this bill as an important initial investment, but emphasize that achieving a comprehensive modernization of the system will still require subsequent funding of billions of dollars.

Investors can pay attention to. $GE Aerospace (GE.US)$ 、 $Boeing (BA.US)$ 、 $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ And so on.

Winners: Real Estate Developers

The bill retains and expands existing tax deductions for commercial real estate investors and developers, including bonus depreciation, a feature of the 2017 tax reform that allows real estate companies to fully deduct many property improvement costs.

The bill will also permanently incorporate tax incentives for investments in real estate development projects in opportunity zones into tax law. The construction of affordable housing is also expected to receive a boost. The bill expands the low-income housing tax credit program by 12%, which can fund the development of approximately 50,000 new housing units each year.

$Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$ 、 $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$ 、 $NVR Inc (NVR.US)$ And real estate developers are worth watching.

Winner 5: Nuclear Energy

According to CITIC, the bill modifies or restricts tax credits for zero-emission nuclear power production and clean fuel production, but does not fully eliminate them. Previously, Trump signed four executive orders focusing on nuclear fuel independence, advanced reactor deployment, streamlining review processes, and supporting energy demands for military/AI facilities, policies that actively promote the revival of nuclear power and other areas in electricity.

In terms of nuclear power, attention is warranted. $Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$ 、 $Oklo Inc (OKLO.US)$ 、 $NuScale Power (SMR.US)$ is worth noting.

Winner 6: Defense and Military Industry

The Department of Defense will allocate a budget of approximately 150 billion USD for large projects such as shipbuilding, ammunition production, and missile defense systems over the next five years, including a down payment of about 25 billion USD for the planned construction of the "Iron Dome" missile defense system, which is beneficial to $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$ and $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ For companies like this, it is a significant Bullish.

It is important to note that the "Big and Beautiful" bill is "very generous" regarding defense spending, with sufficient investment in the Iron Dome program, new fighters (such as the F47), military artificial intelligence, and drone programs, which Trump places great importance on.

Therefore, in the Trump 2.0 era, military drone Concept stocks are worth investors' close attention, such as $AIRO Group (AIRO.US)$ 、 $Northrop Grumman (NOC.US)$ 、 $AeroVironment (AVAV.US)$ 、 $Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS.US)$ .

Winner 7: Private Student Loan Institutions

Affected by the "Too Big to Fail" Act, private student loan institutions such as $SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$ 、 $SLM Corp (SLM.US)$ 、 $Upstart (UPST.US)$ may benefit from the reduction in the federal student loan limits. The new regulations lower the federal loan limit for graduate students to $0.1 million, down from mostly $0.1385 million; the loan limit for professional programs such as medical school will also be reduced to $0.2 million, down from mostly $0.224 million. The reduction in loan limits may encourage more students to turn to private lending institutions to fill the funding gap.

Who are the losers?

Loser 1: Electric Vehicle Manufacturers

The Act will prematurely terminate the subsidy of up to $7,500 for purchasing or leasing electric vehicles, and vehicles purchased after September 30 will not be able to enjoy this benefit. This is detrimental to $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 、 $Ford Motor (F.US)$ 、 $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ This brings challenges to car manufacturers.

Loser 2: Photovoltaic and wind energy companies.

In terms of photovoltaic policies, the overall bill is bearish, with an early cancellation of up to 30% investment tax credits (the original ITC policy). Among them, residential photovoltaic projects will be completely canceled by the end of 2025, and utility projects will be completely canceled by the end of 2027. At the same time, production tax credits (manufacturing subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act) are applicable until 2032 but are not applicable to factories that commence production after the end of 2027.

However, there was a key adjustment to the bill before the final vote: Republicans removed the new consumption tax provisions for wind and solar projects but maintained the deadline for cancelling all clean energy tax credits by the end of 2027. Although the removal of the consumption tax alleviated cost pressure on developers, the bill still retained the controversial clause that wind and solar projects commencing production after 2027 will not benefit from tax incentives.

Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out that while the removal of the consumption tax did not solve the long-term subsidy gap issue, it provided developers with a two-year buffer period, preventing short-term cost overruns.

Therefore, despite $First Solar (FSLR.US)$ 、 $Sunrun (RUN.US)$ 、 $SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.US)$ There has been a recent rebound, but in the long term, it still deserves caution.

Loser 3: Food Enterprises

The bill to cut the U.S. national food stamp program (i.e., the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, SNAP) may pose significant bearish risks to the packaged food industry. In recent years, large food enterprises have increasingly relied on consumer spending from SNAP beneficiaries, and many companies have listed potential reductions to this public welfare program as one of the core risk factors that could lead to a decline in sales.

According to estimates by Bernstein analysts, SNAP beneficiaries account for approximately 9% of the food grocery spending. $The Kraft Heinz (KHC.US)$ 、 $General Mills (GIS.US)$ Top food companies such as these may come under pressure first due to the reduction of this program.

Loser 4: Logistics Companies

"Big and Beautiful" bill cancels the tax exemption for small packages. In recent years, $FedEx (FDX.US)$ 、 $United Parcel Service (UPS.US)$ freight companies have benefited from the booming E-Commerce package market, but if costs increase leading to a decline in consumer demand, the package volume for these freight logistics companies may fall.

Loser 5: Medical Industry

"Big and Beautiful" bill will have the deepest impact on the American healthcare system, which is expected to cut about $900 billion in medical subsidy spending over the next few years, reversing many advances in healthcare made during the Biden and Obama administrations.

Health insurance companies may be the biggest "victims" of the bill.

The Medical Research Director at American Financial consulting firm Veda Partners estimates that, since medical subsidy insurance companies are reimbursed a fixed amount per member, the decrease in Medicaid enrollment will directly affect companies such as $Elevance Health (ELV.US)$ 、 $Centene (CNC.US)$ and $Molina Healthcare (MOH.US)$ The income of insurance companies is significant in the healthcare market, with Molina deriving over 88% of its total members from Medicaid programs in 2024, Centene about 46%, and Elevance approximately 19.5%.

Furthermore, the bill prohibits pharmacy benefit management companies (PBM) from using a spread pricing model (i.e., reimbursing drugs at a high price while paying pharmacies at a low price, profiting from the difference). This directly impacts. $CVS Health (CVS.US)$ and $Cigna Group (CI.US)$ companies that have PBM businesses.

However, analysts from investment bank Raymond James believe that this bill is expected to put pressure on hospitals, reducing their funding, which will compel hospitals to seek income from other sources. Additionally, the new bill includes some provisions to adjust Health Savings Accounts (HSA), which are considered beneficial for telehealth companies.

Overall, China Merchants believes that the large and beautiful bill will continue to have a positive impact on the American stock market in the next two years. The U.S. deficit rate is expected to be around 7% in the coming years, significantly higher than the past two years. The current performance of the U.S. stock market has already priced in the positive aspects of fiscal policy. Moreover, AI capital expenditures continue to expand, and the logic of stablecoins will provide liquidity support for the U.S. stock market. Even if U.S. Treasury interest rates do not decline further, there is still room for upward valuation in the U.S. stock market. Therefore, the institution remains bullish on the U.S. stock market before the midterm elections next year. Currently, there is a possibility of short-term adjustments due to weakening inventory cycles, escalating tariff frictions, and rising inflation, but adjustments present good opportunities for reallocation.