Will the tariff war affect your Hold Positions.

April 2, referred to by Trump as "USA Liberation Day," is the day he announced the reciprocal tariff measures. What exactly is "reciprocal tariff"? It means imposing tariffs on imported products from other countries at the same rate as that country imposes on USA goods.

In simple terms: you charge me a certain tariff, and I will charge you the same tariff in return.

Trump stated that this is done to ensure USA businesses can compete in a fair environment and reduce USA's disadvantages in global trade.

However, the situation is not as bad as imagined.

This is because Trump previously indicated that the reciprocal tariff plan has "flexibility" and is "targeted," and will not be imposed on all countries globally, but rather aimed at "15% of countries," which can negotiate new trade terms with USA, possibly avoiding being subjected to tariffs.

However, Bloomberg cited officials stating that only countries without tariffs imposed by the USA and with a trade surplus with the USA, meaning a net positive export, would not be subject to reciprocal tariffs. In other words, regions like Mainland China and India are at risk.

What about the attitude towards China? Trump recently proposed that high tariffs could be relaxed on China in exchange for China selling TikTok to a new buyer in the USA.

Earlier, Trump stated that he would maintain a very good relationship with China and planned to initiate a new round of talks, but mentioned that there is a 1 trillion dollar trade deficit between China and the USA, as always "bouncing in and out".

Some analysts believe that China wants to prevent the trade war from escalating further to avoid hindering economic recovery, and new tariffs may also make relations between the USA and its allies more tense, leading to an intensification of the trade war.

Moreover, major banks predict that if reciprocal tariffs indeed take effect, the probability of an economic recession in the USA will rise to 50%.

However, does higher tariffs necessarily mean a worse stock market? Since February 1 of this year, when Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on China, Hong Kong stocks have actually risen more than 20%.

Is there room for a twist in the new round of trade wars? Can the Hong Kong Stocks hold up this time? In this environment, are there valuable and safe stocks available in the market? Everyone can pay attention and listen to expert analysis (the following content comes from a telephone interview, the guest interviewed is Lam Ka-chi):

During the first round of tariff increases, most tariffs on Chinese products had already risen to levels higher than those of the USA. If we talk about reciprocity, it has basically been achieved in most cases, so it isn't a substantial impact, but rather an effect on the atmosphere and sentiment. Therefore, what needs to be focused on now is whether the USA will impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries and market expectations regarding rising inflation.

If there is no significant panic situation, then the US stock market may not only not decline, but may even rebound. Because if reciprocal tariffs are implemented, such as raising tariffs to 50%, consumers cannot bear such a high burden. This will only increase inflationary pressure, raise personal debt levels, and reduce personal spending. Therefore, it is believed that the probability of a recession in the USA is not just 50%, and may even be higher.

If completely liquidating is a "cutting the toes to avoid sandworms" approach. When the news of reciprocal tariffs affects sentiment and this sentiment is overly pessimistic, it may be worth considering buying some stocks. If the situation with reciprocal tariffs is not as severe as the market expects, the stock market may welcome the next wave of upward movement.

Technology stocks will definitely be the first choice.

The next round may be the export-oriented stocks that the market was overly worried about previously. If adequate preparations were made for tariffs when Trump first took office, the valuations of these companies may be underestimated.

There are also traditional textile stocks that have not rebounded; they have basically successfully relocated their production bases to Southeast Asian countries, making their products competitive.

Reciprocal tariffs will drive up global resource prices, and it is believed that resource stocks should be avoided, as the performance of coal to raw material metals, and even oil prices, may be affected by medium-term shocks.

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