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"Trump Trading" is one of the market's main themes this year, as Republican candidate Trump, once seen as a strong contender for the next president of the United States after the shooting incident. But with Biden's announcement to withdraw from the race, current Vice President Kamala Harris has become the new Democratic presidential candidate, adding uncertainty to the election. According to RCP poll, as of September 2, Trump's probability of winning is 46.2%, lagging behind Harris' 48.1%.

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In the upcoming months of September to October, presidential candidates will engage in multiple debates to showcase their policies and debating abilities. This stage is the sprint period of the election, with a lot of variables. If Trump can gain the upper hand in the debates, he might be able to make a comeback.

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This article will outline the three main directions of "Trump Trading" and their respective characteristics.

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Donald Trump Concept Stocks

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There are fewer stocks with clear commercial or close political ties to Trump, mainly including$Trump Media & Technology(DJT.US)$and$Phunware(PHUN.US)$) and$Rumble(RUM.US)$three companies.

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DJT is a social media company owned by Trump. As of July this year, Trump still held 60.4% of the shares. DJT is the parent company of the famous 'Truth Social'.

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After the riot at Capitol Hill at the beginning of 2021, Trump's Facebook and Twitter (renamed X after being acquired by Musk) accounts were banned because of 'inciting language'. Trump then turned to his own 'Truth Social'. Even after the shooting, Trump updated the situation in the first time on 'Truth Social', making DJT the purest Trump concept stock.

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Rumble has a similar nature to DJT, with its user group including many conservatives and Trump supporters who have gathered here due to their dissatisfaction with mainstream social media platforms' content censorship. In addition, Rumble has cooperated with DJT to provide video hosting and streaming services to the latter.

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Phunware provided mobile application development and data analysis services for Trump's 2020 presidential campaign, developing the 'Trump 2020' app for interacting with supporters, sending notifications, organizing activities, and collecting data, among other things.

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The three companies are currently not profitable and relatively small in terms of market capitalization, with greater volatility in their stock prices and certain meme stock attributes. As of the close of July 15th, DJT was approximately $8 billion, Rumble was approximately $2 billion, and Phunware was less than $50 million in market capitalization.

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Policy-benefiting sectors

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Although there are relatively few individual stocks directly associated with Trump, combining his campaign policies can also identify more beneficial directions.

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Trump's policy positions reflect a clear conservative stance, emphasizing 'America First', executing economic protectionism and strict immigration restrictions, reducing taxes and relaxing industry regulation, as well as having a negative attitude toward clean energy development.

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According to the relevant context of the policy, Futubull has compiled some 'Trump concept stocks' for mooers to reference.$Donald Trump Concept Stock (LIST22962.US)$ Refer to the content of the chart for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice.

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This chart is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.

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Trump launched a trade war during his previous term, and if elected this time, he is expected to take even tougher trade policies. Domestic raw material production and manufacturer companies in the United States are expected to benefit, and as bargaining chips in trade negotiations, the agricultural sector in the United States is also expected to be boosted.

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Banking, insurance, and biomedical industries can all benefit from a more relaxed regulatory environment, while oil and gas companies benefit from the return to old energy in energy policy.

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The stocks that benefit from policies involve a wide range of industries, and the impact on stock prices may not be as direct as Trump concept stocks. It may be necessary to observe the specific impact on industry profits after the policy is implemented.

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New trade: Tesla and digital currency.

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Although not belonging to the traditional energy sector, and even Trump's future policies may have a negative impact on Tesla's business, Tesla (TSLA) still jumps on the "Trump trade" bandwagon. Due to Musk's public endorsement, Tesla's stock price experienced an upward trend after Trump's attack.

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Digital currencies are also boosted by Trump. Earlier, Trump confirmed that he would attend the Bitcoin Conference at the end of this month and deliver a speech, and after the attack, the organizers confirmed that he would attend as scheduled.

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and the Point Bridge America First ETF $Coinbase(COIN.US)$ etc.$MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$數據來源：富途牛牛。數據截至2024年7月15日收盤。案例僅供說明用途，不构成任何投資建議或保證。

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From the market performance point of view, both Trump concept stocks and digital currencies are more sensitive to the election and have relatively larger flexibility.

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萬斯的持倉也成為市場關注的焦點。資料顯示他的持倉以大盤指數基金為主，持有納斯達克100、標普500和道瓊斯指數基金，各占其投資組合的24%。$Etf Opportunities Tr Amern Conservative Values Etf(ACVF.US)$Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US)$Point Bridge America First ETF(MAGA.US)$Rumble (RUM.US)

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Taking the conservative value ETF as an example, the fund avoids investing in companies that support the Democratic Party's liberal agenda, and has achieved good returns since the end of 2022. If Trump can finally return to the White House, relevant investment products are expected to perform well.

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Data source: Futu Holdings. Data is as of the close of July 15, 2024. The case is for illustration purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice or guarantee.

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At the same time as the Republican Party formally nominated Trump as the party's presidential candidate this week, Trump also announced his vice presidential candidate - Senator James David Vance from Ohio, the author of 'Hillbilly Elegy'.

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Vance's holdings have also become the focus of the market's attention. The data shows that his holdings are mainly in large-cap index funds, holding Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones index funds, each accounting for 24% of his investment portfolio.

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His other investments overlap with the concepts in the "Trump trade", such as holding 6% of Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF ($Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund(FBTC.US)$) and Rumble. In addition, he also invested in ETFs of gold and crude oil.$Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund(FBTC.US)$) and Rumble (另外值得注意的是，特朗普預期將執行的減稅和寬鬆貨幣政策也有可能讓通脹再度走高，進而拖累市場表現。隨著特朗普勝選概率不斷提高，市場也開始交易通脹風險，近期長期債券的收益率在通脹緩解的情況下仍出現上行，顯示出對於長期通脹前景的擔憂。$MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(OILD.US)$$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US)$$MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(OILD.US)$$MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(OILD.US)$

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Related risks of the "Trump trade": Currently, there are less than four months left before the US election. Although Trump currently has an advantage, everything has not settled yet. Especially meme stocks strongly related to Trump may experience greater volatility. Mooers can formulate corresponding strategies based on the characteristics of different sectors in the "Trump trade".

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There is less than four months until the US election, and although Trump currently has an advantage, everything is still uncertain. Especially meme stocks related to Trump may experience significant volatility, and mooers can develop corresponding strategies based on the characteristics of different sectors in Trump trades.

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It is worth noting that Trump's expected tax cuts and loose monetary policy may also raise inflation and drag down market performance. As Trump's chances of winning continue to rise, the market also begins trading inflation risks. Recently, the yield of long-term bonds has continued to rise despite the easing of inflation, indicating concerns about long-term inflation prospects.

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Risk disclosure: This content does not constitute a research report, is for reference only, and should not be used as a basis for any investment decisions. The information involved in this article is not a comprehensive description of the securities, markets, or developments mentioned. Although the information source is considered reliable, the accuracy or completeness of the above content is not guaranteed. In addition, no guarantee is given for any statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in this article.