Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for Hong Kong residential property price growth in 2024 to 15%, remains positive on Henderson Land (00012.HK) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK), and lowers target price for New World Development (00017.HK).

Goldman Sachs published a research report noting that Hong Kong’s residential prices and office rents have performed stronger than expected year-to-date, prompting the firm to revise its forecast upward once again. It now expects Hong Kong residential prices to rise by 15% this year (previously forecast at a 12% increase), while maintaining its forecasts for 2027 and 2028 unchanged at increases of 7% and 4%, respectively. The bank continues to favor property developer stocks, anticipating they will benefit from a multi-year upcycle in Hong Kong’s residential market. The report noted that residential prices have already risen by 8% year-to-date, with primary-market sales volumes increasing by 48%. Rental growth has been slower, rising just 1.2% year-to-date, reflecting a partial shift in demand from renting to buying. Regarding office space, Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for...

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Three Factors Leading the Current Turning Point in the Real Estate Market That Have Been Overlooked

Caitong Securities pointed out that, first, the housing provident fund interest rate serves as the real anchor for mortgage rates. In most first- and second-tier cities, the proportion of loans covered by the provident fund exceeds 50%, bringing the blended rate down to 2.83%. Second, Shanghai’s housing inventory has hit bottom, with listings dropping to 87,000 units and the digestion cycle now at only four months. Third, the appreciation of the renminbi has created room for interest rate cuts, with over a trillion dollars in pending foreign exchange settlement funds poised to enter the market as the currency strengthens. “Real estate stocks are low-priced, undervalued, and under-owned, making a potential rally imminent.”

wallstreetcnApr 22 09:33

Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong’s residential market recovery remains robust amidst macroeconomic instability, maintaining the forecast of a 12% rise in property prices this year.

Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that despite an unstable macroeconomic environment, Hong Kong's residential market recovery has remained robust. The Centaline City Leading Index (CCL) has recorded a cumulative increase of 6.6% year-to-date, with total transaction volumes in March still rising by 17% year-on-year to 6,000 transactions. Among developers, Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK) outperformed the industry in the first quarter, achieving approximately HKD 13 billion in contracted sales, capturing a 25% market share, while Henderson Land (00012.HK) and New World Development (00017.HK) accounted for 9% and 6%, respectively. The firm maintains its forecast of a 12% year-on-year increase in property prices for this year. In the office segment, the recovery pace exceeded the firm’s expectations, driven by

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