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Persistent supply-demand imbalance in the copper market, with LME inventories plunging 32% in a single month, presents a new round of upside opportunities for mining stocks.
LME copper prices rose to $14,396 per ton on Monday, with the spot premium surging to its highest level since 2021. Persistent supply-side disruptions continue to exert pressure: Chile's copper output fell by 6.7% year-on-year, Antofagasta lowered its production guidance, and smelters in Indonesia halted operations. Meanwhile, growing market expectations of U.S. tariffs on refined copper have intensified tightness in LME spot supplies. The approaching monthly delivery date may further amplify short-selling pressure, and analysts believe mining stocks still have room for upside.
Is a copper shortage inevitable? Jefferies: Major miners cut output by 3.9% in Q2, with the global deficit potentially reaching 440,000 tonnes by 2026
On Monday, the LME cash premium hit a new high since 2021. According to a report by Jefferies, major miners covering 55% of global supply saw their Q2 copper production decline by 3.9% year-on-year, weighed down by operational disruptions and declining ore grades. The firm believes that supply risks are clearly skewed to the downside, forecasting a global copper deficit of 442,000 tonnes in 2026 that will continue to widen, thereby maintaining its medium-term bullish outlook.
Express News | The supply and demand dynamics for tungsten are expected to continue improving, with the underlying index of the E Fund Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159032) rising by more than 2%.
HK Stock Market Movers | Copper Stocks Lead Gains as Inventories Continue to Decline and Rate Hike Expectations Cool, Pushing Copper Prices Near Record Highs
Most copper stocks rose. As of press time, China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661) was up 8.62% at HK$0.126, and MMG Limited (01208) gained 8.2% to HK$9.105.
HK Stocks in Focus | Copper prices remain elevated, copper mining stocks surge, China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals jumps over 9% again
Gelonghui, August 17 – Copper mining stocks listed in Hong Kong have regained momentum, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals surging more than 9% to bring its two-day cumulative gain to 25%. MMG Ltd rose 8%, China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. advanced 4.6%, Jiangxi Copper Company Limited edged up nearly 4%, while China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited and Jinxun Resources each gained over 3%. On the news front, Shanghai copper prices recently broke through RMB 108,000 per tonne, approaching their year-to-date highs, while LME copper prices remained above USD 14,000 per tonne. On the supply side, disruptions at the mine level persist—Codelco has lowered its full-year production forecast, and spot treatment charges (TCs) for copper concentrate have fallen below USD -175 per tonne, impacting smelters.
Express News | The nonferrous metals sector staged a volatile rebound, with Northern Copper hitting the daily limit up.