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The oil market is trapped in a "continuous cut" mode: endless expectations and ongoing downward adjustments.
The oil market is experiencing a collapse of confidence. Major Institutions are continuously lowering their forecasts, and all signals are telling the market: it is not yet at the bottom.
Oil Rig Count Rises by 1; Crude Prices Jump Amid New US Sanctions on Iran
Starting tomorrow, mainland China will reduce the prices of refined oil.
The National Development and Reform Commission announced that according to recent changes in international market oil prices and following the current mechanism for forming refined oil prices, starting from midnight on April 18, the domestic price of gasoline and diesel will be lowered by 480 and 465 yuan per ton, respectively. The Commission instructed PetroChina (00857.HK), Sinopec (00386.HK), and CNOOC (00883.HK), along with Other crude oil processing companies, to organize the production and transportation of refined oil effectively to ensure stable market supply and strictly implement national price policies.
Major banks rating | Bank of America: Downgrades this year's Brent Crude Oil Product price forecast to $65 and lowers the Target Price for PetroChina and Sinopec.
On April 17, Glonghui reported that Bank of America Securities published a research report, expecting that high tariffs will hit Global demand, leading to an increase in the oversupply in the Global crude oil market from 320,000 barrels per day to 650,000 barrels per day this year. Accordingly, the forecast for Brent crude oil prices was lowered to the beginning of the year's level, which is $65 per barrel, and the prediction for 2026 was revised down from $73 per barrel to $70. Bank of America Securities believes that Petrochina's profit resilience is strong, and it is expected that the cost of imported Henry Hub Natural Gas will decrease as oil prices fall, potentially improving Petrochina's unit profit margin this year. Based on the latest oil price forecasts and potential improvement in profit margins, the profit forecast for this year and next year has been lowered by 11%.
"Big Action" Bank of America Securities has lowered its oil price forecast for this year to $65, and has reduced the Target Price for China National Petroleum (00857.HK) and Sinopec (00386.HK).
Bank of America Securities published a research report, expecting that high tariffs will impact Global demand, leading to the excess supply in the Global oil market increasing from 320,000 barrels per day to 650,000 barrels per day this year. Correspondingly, it has lowered its forecast for this year's Brent Crude Oil Product price back to the level at the beginning of the year, which is $65 per barrel, and reduced the 2026 forecast from $73 per barrel to $70 per barrel. Bank of America Securities believes that Petrochina (00857.HK) has strong earnings resilience, expecting that the cost of imported Henry Hub Natural Gas will decrease as oil prices fall. This year, the unit profit margin of Petrochina may improve. Based on the latest oil price predictions and potential profit margin increases, it has adjusted its profit forecasts for this year and next year downwards.
Hong Kong stocks are experiencing fluctuations | Petroleum stocks are collectively rising, geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and the Crude Oil Product supply and demand pattern still has a favorable basis.
Petroleum stocks are collectively rising. As of the time of writing, PetroChina (00857) is up 2.68%, trading at 5.74 HKD; China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) is up 2.07%, trading at 16.8 HKD; China Oilfield Services (02883) is up 1.04%, trading at 5.85 HKD.