JPMorgan forecasts gold prices to rise to USD 6,300 by the end of this year.
JPMorgan has issued a report predicting that demand from central banks and investors will ultimately drive gold prices to $6,300 per ounce by the end of this year. The bank also raised its long-term forecast for gold prices to $4,500 per ounce.
CMB International forecasts that the U.S. will cut interest rates twice within the year and expects gold prices in the first quarter to fluctuate between $4,000 and $5,200 per ounce.
Ding Meng, Chief Economist of CITIC Bank (International), believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates to a neutral level. He pointed out that there is still room for rate cuts from the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% to reach the neutral rate. It is expected that there will be two more rate cuts this year. The dot plot indicates that Fed officials are becoming more cautious about the magnitude of rate cuts next year compared to this year. Ding Meng noted that since the beginning of the year, Hong Kong’s private residential market has gradually stabilized, and it is anticipated that property prices will rise moderately going forward. In December, the private residential price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with an accumulated rise of approximately 3.2% for the year, ending a three-year downward trend. The rental index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with an accumulated increase of approximately 4.3% for the year.
JPMorgan Private Bank: Gold Price Undergoing Healthy Technical Correction, Raises Year-End Target to $6,150
Tang Yuxuan, Head of Asia Macro Strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, stated that the recent decline in gold prices represents a healthy technical correction. The previous upward movement contained a certain degree of irrationality, and this adjustment has effectively absorbed some speculative positions. Notably, gold prices have merely returned to levels seen two weeks ago, with January still recording a 13% increase. Drawing from past experience, after gold fell from $4,400 to $3,900 in October last year, it briefly consolidated before breaking upward again, recovering and surpassing the previous high by December. She continued to note that her team’s fundamental view on gold remains unchanged. The nomination of Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair does not alter this outlook.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange are approaching USD 14,000 per tonne, hitting a record high.
Copper prices surged to a record high this morning (29th) Hong Kong time, with the three-month benchmark copper futures price on the London Metal Exchange rising to $13,965 per tonne at one point. This represents an accumulated increase of approximately 12% since the beginning of this year. Prices of other major base metals also rose, with aluminum hitting a three-year high. The depreciation of the US dollar, rising demand for physical assets, and the Trump administration's pursuit of a tougher foreign policy stance have exacerbated geopolitical tensions, driving commodity prices higher throughout the year. Spot gold is up 2.43% to $5,548.37 per troy ounce, while February gold futures rose 4.25% to $5,528.8 per troy ounce.
Powell indicated that no one in the baseline forecast predicts a rate hike as the next policy move, and he disagrees that the sharp rise in gold prices is related to the Federal Reserve's credibility.
According to comprehensive media reports, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated at the post-interest-rate decision press conference that no one currently expects the next policy move to be a rate hike. He also noted that officials are evaluating the next steps following last year's consecutive rate cuts. Powell highlighted that December’s inflation rate likely remained significantly above the central bank’s 2% target, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) estimated at 3%. He emphasized that the overshooting of inflation was primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand, and excluding the impact of goods tariffs, core PCE was only slightly above 2%. He anticipated that the tariff effects would peak this year before receding. Regarding the successive record highs in gold prices, Powell responded that some may argue the Fed is...
Morgan Stanley: Gold Price Yet to Peak, Bullish Scenario Could Reach $5,700 in the Second Half of the Year
Morgan Stanley issued a report stating that gold prices have already surpassed the firm's forecast of $4,750 per ounce for the second half of the year. However, the bank believes that gold prices have not yet peaked, primarily supported by geopolitical risks, positive signals from central banks, and ETF buying. The bank specifically raised its target price under a bullish scenario: $5,700 per ounce for the second half of the year. Silver prices are showing strong momentum, with spot premiums in the Shanghai market highlighting supply tightness. Morgan Stanley pointed out that Poland’s central bank is shifting towards targeting absolute tonnage for gold reserves rather than as a proportion of total reserves, indicating reduced sensitivity to price fluctuations. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year should continue to support precious metals.
Tse Sui Luen Jewellery Tightens Controls After Tenancy Disclosure Lapse
Domestic gold jewelry prices remain at high levels as multiple brands show renewed divergence in price adjustments.
According to the report by Gelonghui on January 16, differences in the prices of domestic gold jewelry were observed again among multiple gold and jewelry brands. Some brands maintained prices unchanged from the previous day, while others reduced their gold jewelry prices, generally to around 1,435 yuan per gram. Specifically, on that day, the domestic price for 999 pure gold/24K gold jewelry at Luk Fook Jewellery was 1,434 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day; the domestic prices for Chow Tai Fook’s gold jewelry (ornaments and crafts), TSL Jewellery’s gold jewelry, and Chao Hung Ji’s gold jewelry (decorative items) were 1,436 yuan per gram, also remaining unchanged from the previous day; the domestic price for gold jewelry at Zhou Sheng Sheng was 1,431 yuan per gram.
TSL Jewellery (00417) subsidiary renews Macau lease contract
Tse Sui Luen (00417) announced that on October 20, 2025, TSL Jewelry Retail (Macau) Limited (an indirectly wholly-owned subsidiary of the company) as the tenant and the landlord (Venetian Cotai Limited) have renewed the Macau lease agreement for the property. The lease term will run from February 1, 2026, to January 31, 2029 (inclusive of both start and end dates), lasting for three years. The property consists of shop numbers 2015 and 2017 on the third floor of the Venetian Macao shopping mall.
Tianjiu Shared Intelligence Prepares for IPO, with John Tsang Serving as Non-Executive Director
Tianjiu Shared Intelligence, a mainland enterprise resource-sharing platform, has submitted an application for listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to its preliminary prospectus filing, former Financial Secretary John Tsang joined the board of directors in August 2025 as a non-executive director. He is responsible for participating in the formulation of overall business plans, strategies, and major decisions through the board, marking his first-ever role as a director of a listed company. Additionally, Ngai Kan Wu assumed the position of independent non-executive director of the company last month. Ms. Wu previously served as Chief Strategy Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Company Secretary, Executive Director, and Vice Chairwoman at Tse Sui Luen (00417.HK).
Christopher Hui: Hong Kong’s gold market has preliminarily formed a complete industrial chain and will establish a gold industry organization.
Christopher Hui, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, told industry participants at today's (22nd) Gold Market Development Briefing that Hong Kong's gold market has preliminarily formed a complete industrial chain. The government is actively working towards establishing Hong Kong as an international hub for gold trading, storage, clearing, and risk management. Hui noted that after more than a year of collaboration among the government, regulatory bodies, and the industry, he was pleased to see the preliminary formation of a comprehensive industrial chain in Hong Kong’s gold market. Throughout the process, the industry responded positively and provided many valuable insights. He highlighted that substantial progress has been achieved with the various measures introduced by the government thus far. Regarding warehousing facilities, the Airport Authority Hong Kong has completed work at the airport.
TSE SUI LUEN: INTERIM REPORT 2025/2026
Tse Sui Luen Jewellery Posts Narrower Fiscal H1 Loss; Shares Slip 5%
Tse Sui Luen Jewellery Reports Interim Financial Results With Strategic Adjustments
TSL Jewellery (00417) announced its interim results, with a loss attributable to owners of the company amounting to HKD 35.289 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19.41%.
TSL Jewellery (00417) announced its interim results for the six months ended September 30, 2025, with a turnover of approximately HKD 7.32 billion...
TSE SUI LUEN: ANNOUNCEMENT OF INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2025
Zhitong HK Stock Investment Diary | November 18
HK Stock Investment Diary | November 18, 2025
TSL Jewellery (00417.HK) enters into an extended credit agreement.
TSL Jewellery (00417.HK) announced that the company and one of its subsidiaries (as guarantors) entered into an amendment and restatement deed with the lender to amend and restate the credit agreement. This includes Hang Seng Bank Limited, acting as the agent and collateral agent, successfully extending the total outstanding principal amount of HKD 496 million. TSL Jewellery stated that the amended and restated credit agreement contains several optimized terms, including (but not limited to) a conditional three-year extension of the credit maturity date, providing a buffer period for business transformation; a reduction in the floating interest rate percentage for the first two years, thereby lowering the group's financing costs; and relaxing certain covenants.
Tse Sui Luen Jewellery Secures Three-Year Extension of HK$496 Million Facilities Agreement
Next Week's Memo
On November 17 (Monday), New Zealand's BNZ Services PMI for October: previous value 48.3; New Zealand's Food Price Index MoM for October: previous value down 0.4%; UK's Rightmove Average Asking House Price Index MoM for November: previous value up 0.3%; UK's Rightmove Average Asking House Price Index YoY for November: previous value down 0.1%; Japan's Q3 preliminary annualized GDP growth rate: forecast to decline by 2.4%, previous value up 2.2%; Japan's Q3 preliminary real GDP growth rate: forecast to decline by 0.6%, previous value up 0.5%; Japan's Q3 preliminary nominal GDP growth rate: forecast.