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MetalsFocus: Behind the Decline in Gold Jewelry Demand, Resilience Remains?
On November 14, Metals Focus reported that the rise in gold prices has led to a corresponding decline in global jewelry manufacturing volumes.
Gold rebounds fiercely! Citi predicts $6,000 per ounce but warns of pressure in 2026.
Citi believes that, under a bull market scenario, gold prices will rise to USD 6,000 by 2027. The core rationale is the significant mismatch between global wealth and the relatively small physical gold market. According to the report, a mere 1.5% increase in global household wealth allocated to gold would deplete 18 years of mining supply, an imbalance that can only be resolved through a price surge. Moreover, this round of growth is primarily driven by U.S. investors rather than central banks, with inflows into their ETFs accounting for the majority of the global increase.
Has Valuation Reached Its Limit? A Five-Dimensional Analysis of Gold Prices
Citi stated that gold has reached historically 'expensive' levels across five dimensions, including its share of GDP and household wealth. Nevertheless, the future trajectory of gold remains highly uncertain. The bank believes that under the base scenario (50% probability), gold prices will retreat to USD 3,650 by 2026. However, in a bull market scenario (30% probability) triggered by structural risks, gold prices could surge to USD 5,000.
China Gold Association: Domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 79.015 tons in the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year growth of 164.03%.
In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption amounted to 682.730 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%.
Has the gold price correction reached its bottom? UBS Group: Fundamental demand remains strong, with expectations to return to USD 4,200 within the year.
①UBS Group believes the pullback in gold prices is temporary and maintains its year-end target price for gold at US$4,200 per ounce. If geopolitical or market risks intensify, gold prices could even rise to US$4,700 per ounce. ②UBS Group recommends that investors allocate a mid-single-digit percentage (approximately 4%-6%) of gold in a diversified US dollar investment portfolio.
The upward momentum of gold and copper prices was curbed when interest rate cuts coincided with 'hawkish guidance'.
There are some headwinds at the macro level.