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DouBao, known for its aggressive cash-burning strategy, has started charging fees, marking the 'commercialization epoch year' for China's large-scale AI models.
DouBao, with 345 million monthly active users and an average daily consumption of 120 trillion tokens, is shifting its computing power costs to heavy users. According to Morgan Stanley estimates, under an optimistic scenario, DouBao’s annual subscription revenue could reach 1.5 billion US dollars. As the most aggressive subsidizer in China’s consumer-level AI sector, DouBao’s move sends a significant signal: the cultivation phase of Chinese consumers’ AI usage habits has largely been completed, and the industry is transitioning from user subsidies to commercial sustainability.
Cloud vendors implement price increases, computational power leasing enters a seller's market, and related stocks show active performance.
Cloud providers implement price hikes: Gradual progress to begin in Q2, with most gains realized within the year.
Zhipu and Minimax are about to enter the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, marking the moment when AI reshapes the Hong Kong stock market.
The two strongest-performing IPO stocks in the Hong Kong stock market — Zhilv and MiniMax — would have reduced the year-to-date loss of the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5 percentage points if they had been included since their listing. Both are expected to be added to the index on June 8, with a combined weight of 5%-7%, bringing approximately $1.25 billion to $1.75 billion in passive fund inflows. The Stock Connect program for Hong Kong stocks will also gradually open. However, the real stress test will come in July during the lock-up expiration period: Zhilv faces a 5.83% lock-up expiration, while MiniMax has nearly 50% of its shares unlocked, putting liquidity premiums to the test.
AI Disrupts the Most Obscure Link: Terminal Value Fluctuations Are Reassessing the Entire U.S. Stock Market
Goldman Sachs pointed out that approximately 75% of the equity value of the S&P 500 now stems from 'terminal value' (i.e., forward earnings expectations beyond a decade), approaching levels seen during the peak of the internet bubble. A one-percentage-point reduction in long-term growth rates could lead to an overall valuation contraction of 15%, with high-growth stocks facing an impact as significant as 29%. Amid narratives of AI-driven disruption, market sell-offs have been concentrated in high-margin industries such as software, reflecting a repricing of long-term growth rather than deterioration in short-term fundamentals.
Goldman Sachs: What Does DeepSeek V4 Mean for China's AI?
Goldman Sachs believes that DeepSeek V4 significantly reduces the cost of long-context inference through architectural innovations such as mixed attention. Its core significance lies in supporting the deployment of complex intelligent applications at a lower cost. V4 explicitly bets on Huawei's Ascend 950, with expectations that API pricing will drop notably following mass production in the second half of 2026. Competition among domestic AI models is intensifying, with programming capabilities and multimodal functionalities becoming key differentiators. Goldman Sachs maintains its top pick rating for cloud computing and data centers.
Weekend Reading | Five Key Signals from DeepSeek V4
On April 24, the much-anticipated preview version of DeepSeek's V4 model was finally released, with its weights simultaneously open-sourced.