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Morgan Stanley has lowered its target price for Maoyan Entertainment (01896.HK) to HKD 6.1 and reduced its box office forecast for the industry.
Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that due to weaker-than-expected box office performance in April and during the May Day Labor Day holiday, it has revised down its forecast for mainland China's total box office revenue in 2026 from RMB 43 billion to RMB 40 billion. Correspondingly, it also adjusted the earnings forecast for Maoyan Entertainment (01896.HK). The firm lowered its revenue forecasts for Maoyan Entertainment by 8%, 3%, and 2% for 2026 to 2028 respectively, reflecting weaker industry performance. Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period were reduced by 12%, 13%, and 13% respectively. Based on an unchanged 12x price-to-earnings ratio forecast for 2026, the target price was adjusted accordingly from HKD 6.9.
The total box office revenue for the May Day holiday in mainland China reached nearly 7.5 billion yuan, surpassing the total box office revenue for the same period in 2025.
According to data from Beacon Professional Edition, as of 7:24 PM yesterday (May 5), the total box office revenue for the 2026 May Day holiday period surpassed 7.48 billion RMB, exceeding the final box office figure of 7.47 billion RMB recorded during the 2025 May Day holiday. During the May 1 to May 5 period, films such as "The Vanished," "Cold War 1994," and "The Devil Wears Prada 2" ranked at the top of the box office charts.
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The total box office revenue of the "May Day" holiday surpassed 200 million yuan, with Guangdong maintaining its position as the top ticket market.
According to Maoyan Professional Edition data, as of 21:31 on May 1, the total box office revenue (including advance sales) for the 2026 May Day holiday period (May 1 - May 5) exceeded 200 million yuan. Guangdong's May Day holiday box office revenue surpassed 38.82 million yuan, firmly ranking as the top contributor. On the first day of the May Day holiday (May 1), the national box office revenue exceeded 160 million yuan, with over 4.33 million cinema visits and a total of 478,000 screenings. Guangdong's box office revenue on the first day of the May Day holiday exceeded 33 million yuan, accounting for approximately 20% of the national total, with 919,000 cinema visits and 53,000 screenings.