Express News | Xinhua Commentary: Strengthening Signs of Stabilization, Further Consolidating the Foundation for High-Quality Development of the Real Estate Sector
Three Factors Leading the Current Turning Point in the Real Estate Market That Have Been Overlooked
Caitong Securities pointed out that, first, the housing provident fund interest rate serves as the real anchor for mortgage rates. In most first- and second-tier cities, the proportion of loans covered by the provident fund exceeds 50%, bringing the blended rate down to 2.83%. Second, Shanghai’s housing inventory has hit bottom, with listings dropping to 87,000 units and the digestion cycle now at only four months. Third, the appreciation of the renminbi has created room for interest rate cuts, with over a trillion dollars in pending foreign exchange settlement funds poised to enter the market as the currency strengthens. “Real estate stocks are low-priced, undervalued, and under-owned, making a potential rally imminent.”
Hainan Proposes to Allow Withdrawal of Housing Provident Fund for Payment of Property Management Fees for Owner-Occupied Residences
The Hainan Provincial Housing Provident Fund Administration recently released the 'Notice on Launching the Business of Withdrawing Housing Provident Funds for Property Management Fees (Draft for Public Comment),' planning to expand the scope of provident fund usage to allow withdrawals for the payment of property management fees for self-occupied housing, with implementation tentatively scheduled to commence in July. The proposed policy explicitly states that contributors whose families have no outstanding provident fund loans or interest-subsidized loans in Hainan Province may apply for a withdrawal once annually to cover the property management fees of one self-occupied residence within the province under their family’s name. The draft proposal specifies that the withdrawal amount will be calculated based on floor area, property management fee standards, and a 12-month period, with the maximum allowable withdrawal set at 4 RMB per square meter for properties where the fee standard is verifiable through the
Stock Movement in Hong Kong | Majority of Mainland Property Stocks Rise as First-Tier City Housing Prices Increase Month-on-Month in March; Institutions Optimistic About the Enhanced Allocation Value of Real Estate Stocks
Most real estate stocks in China rose. As of the time of writing, Radiance Holdings (09993) increased by 4.69%, trading at 1.34 Hong Kong dollars; Sunac China (01918) rose by 4.72%, trading at 1.11 Hong Kong dollars; Greentown China (03900) gained 3.29%, trading at 9.42 Hong Kong dollars.
According to Reuters calculations, housing prices in 70 cities fell by 3.4% year-on-year in March, marking the largest decline in 10 months.
According to calculations by Reuters based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the new commodity housing price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities fell 3.4% year-on-year in March, marking the largest decline in 10 months. Month-on-month, prices dropped by 0.2%, representing the smallest decline in 10 months. The calculations also showed that in March, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, new housing prices increased month-on-month in 14 cities (compared to 10 in February); prices fell in 54 cities (compared to 53 in February), and remained flat in two cities (compared to seven in February).
Prices of new and second-hand homes in first-tier cities rose month-on-month, according to the March data covering 70 cities.
The prices of newly built commercial residential properties increased month-on-month in 14 cities.
National Bureau of Statistics: Year-on-year declines in new commercial residential property prices across all tiers of cities in March.
Wang Zhonghua, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed the statistical data on changes in commercial residential property sales prices in March 2026. He noted that in March, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with the same rate of decline as the previous month. Among these cities, Shanghai saw an increase of 3.7%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recorded declines of 2.1%, 4.7%, and 5.5%, respectively. The sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in second-tier cities fell by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points. In third-tier cities, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties declined by 4% year-on-year, consistent with the rate of decrease from the previous month. In March, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities...
Shares of Chinese real estate companies collectively surged, with Shanghai's second-hand housing market hitting a five-year high for a single day. Goldman Sachs forecasts that housing prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen will increase by 15% over the next thre
Mainland property stocks collectively surged. As of press time, Zhongliang Holdings (02772) rose 8.82% to HKD 0.037, while Greentown China (03900) climbed 8.51% to HKD 9.31.
Hong Kong stocks saw widespread gains in mainland property shares, with Zhongliang Holdings rising nearly 6% and China Jinmao surging over 4%. Huatai Securities recommended gradually building positions in real estate stocks.
Gelonghui, April 14 | Hong Kong-listed real estate stocks generally rose, with Zhongliang Holdings up nearly 6%, Greentown China up over 5%, Cifi Holdings and China Jinmao up over 4%, and Vanke Enterprise, Sunac China, R&F Properties, China Overseas Grand Ocean Group, Shimao Group, and Seazen Development among others following the upward trend. Reports suggest that the initial recovery in cities like Shanghai and Beijing has significantly boosted homebuying confidence in second-tier cities such as Nanjing, leading to a concentrated release of pent-up demand. Following the comprehensive warming of the housing market in first-tier cities, the Yangtze River Delta region also quickly entered its spring market rebound. A Huatai Securities research report noted that since 2021, overall housing prices in China have shown a consistent upward trend.
Express News | Sunac China: The Tianjin Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning letter to Sunac Real Estate and its then-chairman for suspected violations of information disclosure regulations.
Zhengzhou Introduces New Real Estate Policies, Including Increasing the Supply of Guaranteed Rental Housing
The Housing Security and Real Estate Management Bureau of Zhengzhou City issued the 'Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate Market,' officially introducing eight new policies aimed at further stabilizing the real estate market and promoting housing consumption. The new policies explicitly support young people in securing housing, encouraging financial institutions to offer specialized financial products to young individuals under the age of 35 who come to Zhengzhou for employment or entrepreneurship. Enhanced support is provided for multi-child families purchasing homes; when such families, who already own one property locally, apply for a housing provident fund loan to purchase another home, they can receive an increase of up to 20% over the maximum loan amount available for a family’s first home. Additionally, the policy enforces a minimum down payment ratio of 30% for commercial property loans, clarifying that within this city...
Morgan Stanley has lowered target prices for some Chinese property stocks, expecting the sector to remain under pressure in the second quarter.
Morgan Stanley issued a report stating that Chinese property developers remain generally cautious about the outlook for the real estate market. However, some state-owned enterprises in the sector expect a gradual recovery in gross margins and profitability starting from 2026, primarily driven by improved profit margins in development projects and robust growth in rental income. The report highlights that major Chinese developers are expected to post weak performance in 2025, which aligns with market expectations. Core profits are projected to decline by an average of 29% year-on-year, mainly due to an 11% year-on-year drop in revenue and a 1.1 percentage point contraction in gross margins for development projects, resulting in the industry’s ROE falling to just 0.6%. Liquidity risks in the sector have largely eased at this stage, with developers generally reducing debt while also...
Shenzhen's Q1 volume of primary-market office building transactions increased by more than 150% year-on-year.
According to a report by CCTV Finance, leasing demand for office spaces in Shenzhen, Guangdong has rebounded in the first quarter of this year, with vacancy rates for Grade A offices declining for two consecutive quarters. Driven by policy support, industrial platform improvements, and an influx of talent, an increasing number of leading enterprises with economies of scale have moved into Shenzhen’s Grade A office buildings. This has spurred the clustering of upstream and downstream businesses, such as IP operations and professional outsourcing services, further boosting office space demand. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, transactions of new office spaces in Shenzhen surged by 158.8% year-on-year, while transactions of second-hand office spaces increased by 31% year-on-year. The report noted that favorable policies for the commercial real estate market were introduced at the beginning of the year.
Wuhan's new housing provident fund policy: Loan-to-value ratio for existing homes can reach up to 80%, and borrower household registration restrictions have been lifted.
The Wuhan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice stating that it has optimized the use policies for housing provident funds. Among these changes, the tiered regulations on loan-to-value ratios for existing housing based on the age of the property have been abolished. The maximum loan-to-value ratio for first-home loans has been uniformly adjusted to not exceed 80% of the total property value, while for second-home loans, it has been set at not exceeding 70% of the total property value. Additionally, employees contributing to the provident fund in cities across the country who purchase self-occupied homes in Wuhan or have outstanding commercial housing loans can now apply for housing provident fund loans from the Wuhan Provident Fund Center, as the requirement for borrowers (including their spouses) to hold Wuhan household registration has been removed. Furthermore, by the end of June 2027, contributors...
Shanghai's secondary housing market transactions exceeded 30,000 units in March, reaching a new high for a single month over the past five years.
The Shanghai second-hand housing market released its March transaction data, showing that 31,215 units were signed online in March, marking a 176% increase from the previous month and reaching a new high for a single month over the past five years. The market remained highly active throughout March, with transactions exceeding 1,000 units on 13 separate days. Notably, a record high of 1,585 units was transacted on March 28, setting a new single-day record for the past five years. (ta/w)~
Beijing's second-hand housing market saw nearly 20,000 transactions in March, hitting a more than one-year high.
According to data from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development cited by the Beijing Business Today, in March this year, the online signing volume of second-hand housing in Beijing reached 19,886 units, marking a new high since December 2024 for monthly second-hand housing transaction volume. On a month-over-month basis, the volume surged by approximately 145% in March. However, considering that February had only 28 days, this figure holds limited reference value. On a year-over-year basis, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing during March this year increased by about 3.4% compared to 19,234 units in March last year, reflecting sustained high transaction activity for two consecutive years.
In March, the total online signings for new and second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen reached 7,898 units, marking an 11-month high.
According to data disclosed by the LeYouJia Research Center, the total online signing volume of new and second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen reached 7,898 units in March 2026, representing an increase of 117% compared to the previous two months, marking the highest level in the past 11 months. Specifically, the online pre-sale signing of new residential properties citywide amounted to 1,571 units, up 109% from the previous two months, while the current sale signings reached 1,256 units, surging 130% over the same period, bringing the total signings to 2,827 units, a 118% increase from the previous two months. The online signing volume for second-hand residential properties reached 5,071 units, up 117% from the previous two months, maintaining stability at the 5,000-unit 'boom-bust line' level in Shenzhen's real estate market.
Fitch: Weak Start for China's New Home Sales in 2026, with Declines Expected to Narrow in Q2
Fitch Ratings believes that China's new home sales got off to a weak start in 2026, with sales revenue dropping by 22% year-on-year in the first two months, sales area declining by 16%, and average selling prices falling by 7%. The decline in sales revenue exceeded Fitch's previous forecast of a 7% to 8% drop for the full year. However, sales during these two months accounted for approximately 11% of the projected annual sales, consistent with levels observed since 2021. Fitch notes that local easing policies, along with housing provident fund reforms driven by the central government, may help boost housing demand to some extent. Additionally, a potential increase in newly launched projects could contribute to narrowing the decline in sales in the second quarter of 2026.
Lanzhou's housing provident fund policy will be extended starting from next Tuesday, increasing the annual withdrawal limit for 'other housing consumption' to 20,000 yuan per person.
The Lanzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center has issued the 'Notice on the Continuation of the Implementation of the Temporary Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal Policy,' clarifying that, starting from next Tuesday (May 7th), the temporary housing provident fund withdrawal policy will continue to be implemented. The new policy will remain valid until April 6, 2027. Meanwhile, the Gansu Provincial Housing Fund Management Center implemented a new housing provident fund withdrawal policy today (May 1st), introducing additional scenarios for withdrawals, including payments for down payments on second-hand housing. This policy is valid for one year. The adjustments primarily involve three aspects: increasing the withdrawal limit for 'other housing consumption' to RMB 20,000 per person annually; and optimizing the withdrawal policy related to the renovation and upgrading of old residential communities in urban areas.
Hainan: Starting today, contributors’ children purchasing their first home can apply to withdraw housing provident fund to pay for the purchase.
The Hainan Provincial Housing Provident Fund Administration announced that contributors who do not have any outstanding housing provident fund loans (including subsidized loans) in Hainan Province, and whose children purchase their first home in the province (including newly built commercial housing and second-hand residential properties), may apply to withdraw from their housing provident fund to pay for the house purchase within one year from the date of registration and filing of the new commercial housing purchase contract or within one year from the issuance of the real estate ownership certificate for a second-hand property. This notice takes effect today (1st) and will remain valid for two years.