UBS Group: If mainland China imposes tax on residential investment returns from Hong Kong, net yields are expected to fall to 1.8%, aligning with those of tier-one cities on the mainland.
UBS Group published a report indicating that mainland China’s imposition of a 20% tax on returns from Hong Kong insurance policies could slow demand from the insurance sector for office space. A greater risk is that this 20% tax might be extended to Hong Kong residential properties, affecting both rental income and capital gains. The report notes that the latest gross rental yield for Hong Kong residential properties is approximately 3.2%, while fixed mortgage rates (for 3- to 5-year terms) stand at 2.73%. However, after deducting management fees, rates, and property tax, net rental yields typically fall to around 2.2%. If mainland authorities impose a 20% tax on offshore property investment income—similar to the treatment of insurance returns—mainland investors’ net rental returns would likely decline further.
DATE OF BOARD MEETING
HSBC Research: Hong Kong property stocks show improving fundamentals; initiates 'Buy' ratings on Hysan Development (00014.HK) and Swire Properties (01972.HK)
HSBC Research issued a report noting that the fundamentals of Hong Kong’s property and conglomerate sector are improving, supported by stronger property sales, stabilizing rental income, asset monetization activities, and lower borrowing costs. The firm expects sector earnings to improve year-on-year, extending the recovery momentum. HSBC Research highlighted that all 138 units in the first batch of Sun Hung Kai Properties’ (00016.HK) Yuen Long project 'The Regency' were sold out over the past weekend, reflecting resilient owner-occupier demand. However, it anticipates that near-term residential transaction volumes will remain subdued, which could weigh on market sentiment. HSBC Research believes that property stocks’ dividends per share are likely to increase, alongside expected growth in rents from premium shopping malls and residential sales margins.
Colliers: Hong Kong's Grade A office vacancy rate declined to 16.1% in Q2; revised upward its forecast for rental growth in Central and Admiralty to 5%–8%.
Colliers released its Q2 2026 market report, indicating that Hong Kong’s Grade A office market continued its recovery trend, recording a quarterly net absorption of 864,000 square feet, which reduced the overall vacancy rate by 1 percentage point to 16.1%. Central/Admiralty led the recovery this quarter, with the Central Core Business District (CBD) registering net absorption of 182,000 square feet—marking four consecutive quarters of positive absorption and a cumulative total of 880,000 square feet over the past 12 months. Supported by sustained tenant demand, the vacancy rate in the Central CBD declined to 10.2% from 14.5% a year earlier. However, rental performance continued to show significant divergence. Rents in the Central CBD...
《Major Brokerage》Citi remains positive on the medium-term prospects of local property developers, with top picks being Swire Properties (01972.HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK), CK Asset Holdings (01113.HK), and Link REIT (00823.HK).
Citi published a research report indicating that it expects the first-half 2026 earnings of Hong Kong property stocks to improve, primarily benefiting from: (1) development property profit margins rebounding to a range of 13%–18%, up from 3%–8% in the first half of 2025; (2) strong sales revenue recognition; (3) a return to positive rental reversion in mainland China retail portfolios; and (4) improved financing costs due to debt reduction. The bank anticipates dividend growth for Swire Properties (01972.HK) and Hongkong Land, while Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK) and CK Asset Holdings (01113.HK) are expected to maintain dividends in line with their preset payout ratios and earnings-per-share growth. Citi remains positive on improving cash flows and shareholder returns.
Major Brokerage: Citi's Investment Ratings and Target Prices for Hong Kong Property Stocks (Table)
Citi published a research report listing the investment ratings and target prices for Hong Kong property stocks as follows: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD) Wharf Holdings Limited (00004.HK) | Sell | HK$21.15 Henderson Land Development Co., Ltd. (00012.HK) | Buy | HK$34.20 Hysan Development Company Limited (00014.HK) | Buy | HK$24.30 Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (00016.HK) | Buy | HK$168.00 New World Development Company Limited (00017.HK) | Neutral | HK$11.32 Sino Land Company Limited (00083.HK)
Central and Western District: The overall rateable value of office buildings has declined for six consecutive years, cumulatively falling by 34%, with premium-grade office space down 10% year-on-year.
Ms. Yang Mingyi, Senior Associate Director of Research at Centaline Property, noted that based on rateable value data from 37 prime and Grade A benchmark office buildings, the overall office rental values continued to decline in 2025, falling by 8% year-on-year with an accelerating pace—the steepest drop since 2020. Office rental values have now declined for six consecutive years since their 2019 peak, cumulatively dropping by 34.2%. The decline in 2025 was primarily driven by prime-grade offices, which saw a 10.1% year-on-year decrease due to rising vacancy rates amid increased supply. Grade A offices, supported by demand from mainland Chinese tenants, experienced a smaller decline than prime offices but still posted a 4% year-on-year drop for the second consecutive year.
Moody's: An improved operating environment will lay the foundation for developers to achieve stable profitability.
Moody's rating agency stated that Hong Kong's property market is gradually recovering, driven by improved leasing demand for office spaces and a rebound in retail sales alongside the recovery of the tourism sector. These trends have narrowed the decline in office rents and supported retail rental income, although high vacancy rates and still elevated supply levels continue to weigh on the office market. Sales of residential developments showed some improvement in early 2026, but low profit margins will continue to constrain developers' earnings growth. External risks have intensified as the conflict in the Middle East – if prolonged – could drive up inflation and interest rates, potentially hindering the recovery. Unless there is a significant tightening of global financial conditions,
UBS Group: Hong Kong's office and retail markets under short-term pressure; preference for high-dividend stocks with strong net cash positions such as Cheung Kong Property (01113.HK) and Sino Land (00083.HK).
UBS Group issued a research report stating that the Hang Seng Index has dropped 11% from its peak, and believes that the recovery momentum of Central's office market may be negatively impacted in the short term. Meanwhile, IPO activity may slow down, and financial institutions may freeze expansion plans due to heightened market uncertainty. Some investors are questioning whether Hong Kong can benefit from an inflow of funds and wealth triggered by conflicts in the Middle East. The bank added that it has not observed significant capital inflows into Hong Kong, as evidenced by the rebound in one-month HIBOR and the Hong Kong dollar trading near the weak side of its trading band, indicating recent capital outflows. However, UBS noted that some Chinese professionals and family offices originally positioned in the Middle East may potentially reallocate funds to Hong Kong.
ANNUAL REPORT 2025
Citi: The fundamentals of Hong Kong's real estate sector are strengthening. Citi's top picks are Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK), CK Asset Holdings (01113.HK), and Swire Properties (01972.HK).
Citi issued a report on Hong Kong property stocks, noting that the 2025 fiscal year results will benefit from reduced interest costs. The bank also views the guidance provided by listed companies for the 2026 fiscal year as highly encouraging: predictable returns on property sales deposits are expected to rise due to years of increasing housing prices, core office buildings are benefiting from leasing momentum with smaller rental reductions, and there is positive recovery in high-end retail in mainland China. Citi believes that the dividends of Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK) and Henderson Land exceed expectations, signaling an upcoming upward cycle driven by a rapid rebound in profit margins from development properties and the fruition of investment properties. The bank considers this month's pullback in property stocks likely stems from profit-taking following the recent rally.
CHAMPION REIT To Go Ex-Dividend On March 11th, 2026 With 0.0562 HKD Dividend Per Share
March 11th (Beijing Time) - $CHAMPION REIT(02778.HK)$ is trading ex-dividend on March 11th, 2026.Shareholders of record on March 12th, 2026 will receive 0.0562 HKD dividend per share on May 28th, 2026
Citi's Investment Ratings and Target Prices for Hong Kong Property Stocks (Table)
Citi issued a research report providing the investment ratings and target prices for Hong Kong property stocks as follows: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD) Wharf Holdings (00004.HK) | Sell | 18.3 HKD Henderson Land (00012.HK) | Buy | 30 HKD Hysan Development (00014.HK) | Buy | 24.3 HKD Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK) | Buy | 168 HKD New World Development (00017.HK) | Neutral | 11.32 HKD MTR Corporation (00066.HK) |
Hong Kong Stock Movement | Champion REIT (02778) fell over 4% with net property income of HKD 1.613 billion in 25 years, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%.
Champion REIT (02778) fell more than 4%. As of the time of writing, it dropped by 4.64%, trading at HKD 2.67 with a turnover of HKD 7.0058 million.
Kwok Ka Yiu: Hong Kong stocks may test the support level at 26,000 points; Champion REIT (02778.HK) looks forward to business recovery.
Kwok Ka Yiu, Director of Business Development at Harbour Family Office, noted that U.S. stocks experienced mixed performance on Thursday (26th). Technology stocks faced sell-offs following earnings releases, dragging down the Nasdaq's performance. The three major indices closed with varied results. The U.S. dollar remained stable, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note retreated to around 4%. Gold and oil prices softened. Hong Kong's depository receipts showed a generally positive trend, with expectations for the market to open higher in early trading. Mainland China's stock markets saw mixed performances, with the Shanghai Composite Index under repeated pressure, closing slightly lower by less than one point, while trading volumes in both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets remained active. Hong Kong stocks retreated; after opening higher in the morning session, the market briefly climbed back to the 27,000-point level but subsequently encountered selling pressure, causing the index to drop significantly
Crown Property Trust (02778.HK) reported a 10.4% decline in distributable income for the full year, with a final distribution of 5.62 cents per fund unit.
Champion REIT (02778.HK) announced its annual results for the year ended December 31, 2025, reporting distributable income for the full year of HKD 859 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The final distribution per fund unit was 5.62 HK cents, representing an 8.32% decline compared to 6.13 HK cents distributed in the same period last year. Including the interim distribution of 7.01 HK cents, the total distribution per fund unit for the year amounted to 12.63 HK cents, down 11.2% from 14.22 HK cents last year; the distribution ratio remained unchanged at 90%. Based on the closing price of the fund units at HKD 2.55 as of the end of last year, the total annual distribution per fund unit equates to a distribution yield of 5%.
2025 FINAL RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT
JLL: The vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in Central fell to 10.1% in January, the lowest level since 2023.
According to a JLL report, the vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in Central fell by 0.8 percentage points month-on-month to 10.1% at the end of January this year, down from the peak of 12.2% in September 2024, marking the lowest level since 2023. As of the end of January, the overall office vacancy rate decreased to 13.5%, while the vacancy rates in Wan Chai/Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui also fell by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, respectively. Guo Liyan, Head of Hong Kong's Commercial Department at JLL, stated that the market is witnessing a trend of leasing demand returning to core areas, primarily driven by financial institutions. The vacancy rates for several of the highest-quality Grade A office buildings in Central have significantly improved or returned.