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JPMorgan noted that Chinese property stocks are expected to remain resilient ahead of the April meeting of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China. Country Garden (01109.HK), China Jinmao (00817.HK), and China Resources Land (01209.HK) are among the
JPMorgan issued a research report indicating that mainland property stocks recorded an increase of approximately 5% yesterday (4th), compared to the Hang Seng Index's flat performance on the same day. Since the beginning of the year, this sector has demonstrated strong performance with cumulative gains reaching 16%, compared to the Hang Seng Index’s rise of about 5%. This is likely driven by market expectations of stabilization in the secondary housing market in January and heightened anticipation of stronger supportive policies. JPMorgan believes it is still too early to conclude that the mainland real estate market has stabilized, pointing out that the top 100 developers' sales performance in January remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 21%. The firm expects that the mainland property sector may remain resilient before the Central Political Bureau meeting scheduled for late April, but volatility is still expected to be relatively high.
Shares of Chinese real estate companies surged again as Shanghai launched a program to acquire second-hand homes for use as rental housing, with Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui taking the lead in advancing the initiative.
On February 3, it was reported that the real estate sector in mainland China surged again. As of the time of writing, Ronshine China rose nearly 5%, Greentown China and Seazen Group increased over 4%, while China Jinmao and Country Garden climbed nearly 4%.
The mainland property sector continued its downward trend, with Nomura stating that the relaxation of the disclosure requirements for the 'three red lines' is merely symbolic, and actual policy easing remains limited.
The real estate sector in China continued its downward trend. As of press time, Rongxin China (03301) dropped 6.21%, trading at HKD 0.136; Xincheng Development (01030) fell 6.13%, trading at HKD 2.45; and Sunac China (01918) declined 4.13%, trading at HKD 1.16.
Nomura: The relaxation of the 'Three Red Lines' policy for China's real estate sector is largely symbolic, with limited substantive policy easing.
Nomura published a research report indicating that the rise in real estate stocks was due to an exclusive report by Shanghai's official media outlet, Cailian Press, which stated that several developers had been exempted from the disclosure requirements of the 'three red lines.' The 'three red lines' policy, introduced in August 2020, aimed to significantly reduce developers' leverage and triggered a liquidity crisis in the real estate industry. If this exemption is confirmed, it would signify Beijing's increasing concern over the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector and a reduced worry about the risks associated with developers' debt accumulation. However, the bank believes this exemption is largely symbolic, as the relevant restrictions have already been significantly relaxed since the end of 2022 and further in 2023.
Daiwa: The phasing out of the 'three red lines' policy will have limited impact on improving the credit environment for China's real estate industry.
Daiwa Securities published a report stating that mainland property stocks rose yesterday (29th), following reports that Chinese authorities would no longer require real estate developers to submit monthly reports on the "three red lines" status. The firm believes that while the "three red lines" policy was originally designed to curb excessive debt growth, it has long been irrelevant to the financing channels of most developers. Currently, project-level financing for developers mainly relies on the "whitelist" program introduced in 2023. At the parent company level, bond issuance by most private developers has been frozen regardless of their "three red lines" status. Surviving real estate firms such as Longfor Group (00960.HK) and Future Land Development (01
BOC International: Relaxing the 'Three Red Lines' will not have a significant impact; market reaction is overly exaggerated.
Recent media reports indicate that several real estate firms are no longer required by regulators to submit monthly reports on the "Three Red Lines" indicators. BOCI Research issued a report stating that the "Three Red Lines" policy itself was not the trigger for the current market adjustments, nor is it presently the primary constraint on real estate firms' development and financials. Therefore, the firm believes that relaxing the "Three Red Lines" will not have a significant impact, and the adjustment in mainland property stocks represents an overreaction. In particular, distressed companies with substantial share price increases currently face higher risks.