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Huachuang Securities: Credit Growth Slows but Resilience Remains; Capital Rotation Drives Bank Revaluation
Although the high-growth AI theme has diverted some incremental capital, the investment case for bank stocks still hinges on 'dividend-based defensiveness as the foundation, with quality names offering earnings upside potential.'
Express News | Banking stocks declined against the market trend, with all four major state-owned banks—ICBC, ABC, BOC, and CCB—falling more than 3%.
Regulators in three regions reported that the net interest margin of banks under their jurisdiction has 'rebounded.' Will A-share banks show a turning point in this round of interim reports? Positive signals are already emerging.
① Following similar statements from the Beijing and Shenzhen financial regulators indicating that net interest margins (NIMs) of banks under their jurisdiction have stabilized and begun to recover, the Guangdong financial regulator has recently issued a comparable signal; ② Multiple securities firms have assessed that listed banks’ interim financial results for this year are expected to show further improvement, with stabilizing net interest margins serving as a key driver of revenue growth; ③ Although multiple factors in the first half of the year have supported the recovery of interest rate spreads, whether expectations of a turning point will be further reinforced hinges critically on the upcoming interim reports as a key validation window.
Hong Kong-listed bank stocks rose broadly, with the 'Big Five' banks all reaching record highs.
The banking sector rose against the broader market trend, with ICBC and China Construction Bank both hitting record highs. Bank ETFs—including Bosera Bank ETF, Huaan Bank ETF, Huatai-Peijun Bank ETF, Tianhong Bank ETF, Penghua Bank ETF, GF Bank ETF, China Fortune Bank ETF, Southern Bank ETF,华夏 Bank ETF, Huitianfu Bank ETF, and E Fund Bank ETF—all gained more than 1%. These bank ETFs passively track the CSI Bank Index, which comprises 42 listed banks on the A-share market. Nearly 30% of their holdings are allocated to large state-owned banks such as ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of Communications, capturing opportunities tied to the 'high dividend yield' theme; approximately 70% of the portfolio is concentrated in
Earning Nearly RMB 100 Billion Less in Just Six Months: How Can Bank Wealth Management Products Break Free from the 'Low-Yield Trap'?
Yield declined by 75 basis points over two years
CICC: The banking sector continues to show signs of stabilization, with overall performance in the third quarter expected to improve compared to the first half of the year.
CICC expects covered banks’ revenue and attributable net profit to grow by +6% and +4% year-over-year in 2Q26.