Goldman Sachs: Divergence among Chinese bank stocks to accelerate in the second half; large banks remain preferred
Goldman Sachs published a research report noting that China's banking sector continues to face growth challenges due to slowing credit expansion. However, it expects stock performance to remain divergent in the second half of the year, primarily driven by balance sheet resilience. Large banks remain its top preference, with a favorable view on China Construction Bank (0939.HK) and Bank of China (3988.HK). The firm maintains its 'Buy' rating on China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) but has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 2% each, citing concerns over whether asset quality can improve. Goldman Sachs forecasts that, on average, the banks under its coverage will report year-over-year growth of 5% in pre-provision operating profit and 3% in net profit for the second quarter, with large banks continuing to
Citi expects Chinese banks’ second-quarter revenue to rise 6.8% year-over-year, maintaining a positive outlook on large and regional banks.
Citi published a report forecasting that the covered Chinese banks will maintain resilient revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026, with year-over-year revenue growth expected at 6.8%, down from 7.4% in the first quarter of 2026, primarily due to a high base effect from trading gains. Second-quarter revenue growth is expected to be supported by several factors, including still-robust year-over-year growth in corporate loans—albeit slightly slower than in the first quarter—stabilizing net interest margins on a sequential basis, and strong growth in fee income. The bank expects asset quality among Chinese banks to remain stable in the second quarter of 2026; however, Chinese banks are likely to build additional loan loss provisions amid strong revenue growth as a precautionary measure, resulting in an estimated year-over-year earnings growth of 2%.
Express News | Analysis of Consecutive Limit-Up Stocks on July 13: Weak Short-Term Sentiment; Defensive Sectors Such as Pharmaceuticals and Banking Gain Strength
Express News | The 9th China International Import Expo (CIIE) Promotion Event and the Thailand Special Session of the "Export to China" Initiative were held in Bangkok.
Another minor surge? Repurchase and shareholding-backed loan volumes have risen for three consecutive quarters, with credit lines expanding each quarter—banks say their willingness to lend remains strong.
① Recently, many investors have been actively inquiring about listed companies’ plans regarding share repurchases and增持. ② Banks continue to show strong willingness to extend credit for this business, which is considered a high-quality lending activity with low risk and policy support. ③ Since 2026, loan disbursements for share repurchase and增持 programs have increased sequentially for two consecutive quarters, with approved credit lines also expanding. Counting from Q4 of last year, approved credit amounts have already grown for three consecutive quarters and continue to expand.
Banking stocks on the A-share market declined broadly, with China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China all falling by more than 1%.
Gelonghui, July 9 — Bank stocks on the A-share market broadly declined, with China Construction Bank, Zheshang Bank, Bank of ****'an Bank, ICBC, and Bank of Communications all falling more than 1%, while Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, China Minsheng Bank, and Changshu Bank dropped nearly 1%.
Express News | Dividend-paying stocks show resilience amid market weakness; Shandong Expressway hits daily trading limit, reaching a record high.
Qingdao Venture Capital and Private Equity Conference Held; Qingdao Fund Industry Development Alliance Launched
Gelonghui, July 8 — The 2026 Qingdao Venture Capital and Private Equity Conference was held at the Qingdao International Convention Center. At the event, the Qingdao Fund Industry Development Alliance was officially established, having already attracted more than 100 member institutions, including state-owned enterprises, leading investment firms, financial institutions, intermediary service providers, and scientific research institutes. The alliance aims to create an industry-finance matchmaking platform featuring government-enterprise collaboration and multi-party coordination, fostering the growth of long-term and patient capital. Additionally, the Qingdao municipal government signed strategic cooperation agreements with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Guotai Junan Securities, and Zhongtai Securities. The Qingdao Municipal Financial Services Office also signed agreements with ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and
Hong Kong-listed mainland Chinese bank stocks broadly rose, with ten banks distributing dividends exceeding RMB 90 billion this week; institutions are optimistic about the banking sector's performance in the third quarter.
Guosen Securities believes that in the second quarter, the SW Banking Index declined by 9.1%, with the core contradiction lying in market liquidity. The rally in technology and growth stocks accelerated and intensified, sharply boosting market risk appetite and driving capital toward high-upside technology sectors, leading to systematic underweighting of the banking sector.
Hong Kong Market Moves | Mainland China Banking Stocks Lead Gains as 10 Banks Distribute Over RMB 90 Billion in Dividends This Week; Institutions Bullish on Q3 Performance of Banking Sector
Domestic bank stocks led the gains. As of the time of writing, Bank of China (03988.HK) rose 3.32% to HK$4.98; China Construction Bank (00939.HK) gained 3.19% to HK$8.08; ICBC (01398.HK) climbed 2.62% to HK$6.66; and Agricultural Bank of China (01288.HK) advanced 2.42% to HK$5.51.
ZHITONG HK Connect Holdings Analysis | July 8
Stock Connect Holdings Analysis | July 7, 2026
Breaking News! Shares of the six major A-share banks surged collectively against the market trend.
Gelonghui, July 7 | All six major A-share listed banks rose collectively against the market trend, with Bank of China gaining over 3%, China Construction Bank rising nearly 3%, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of Communications each up over 1%, and Postal Savings Bank of China climbing nearly 1%.
Express News | The four major state-owned banks rose against the market trend, with Bank of China up over 3%.
Zhito Hong Kong Stock Connect Holdings Analysis | July 3
Stock Connect Holdings Analysis | July 2, 2026
Annualized rate of 1.6%: Large-denomination certificates of deposit with five-year terms from major state-owned banks reappear—what signal does this send? Industry insiders: unlikely to become mainstream.
① The large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) issued by Bank of China mark the return of five-year large-denomination CDs from major state-owned banks to the market; ② Constrained by net interest margin pressures, banks generally prefer to limit large-denomination CDs and long-term time deposits—particularly larger banks, which currently 'do not lack liabilities'; ③ Given the current interest rate environment, long-term large-denomination CDs will not become mainstream across the industry.
In the first half of the year, 103 village and township banks were approved for dissolution, and some nationwide banks accelerated the conversion of village branches into sub-branches.
① From January 1 to June 30 this year, local regulators cumulatively issued announcements approving the dissolution of 103 village banks—a pace exceeding that of the same period last year. ② In the first half of this year, local regulators have intensified efforts to guide institutions under their jurisdiction in advancing the conversion of village banks into branch offices (“village-to-branch” reform). The number of village banks disappearing is expected to remain elevated in the second half of the year. ③ Several nationwide commercial banks are currently pursuing the complete elimination of their village bank subsidiaries.
Express News | Moody's Upgrades Outlook for China's Banking System to 'Stable': Earnings Stabilizing, Liquidity Remains Ample
Hong Kong Stocks: Hang Seng Index Closes Down 145 Points, Breaching the 23,000 Level; Down 10.7% Year-to-Date
Hong Kong stocks marked their half-year settlement today (30th). The Hang Seng Index opened 18 points lower and remained under pressure throughout the session, at one point dropping 341 points to an intraday low of 22,685. It closed the day at 22,881, down 145 points or 0.63%, with total trading volume reaching HK$308.05 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 7,558, down 47 points or 0.62%. The Hang Seng Tech Index performed better, closing at 4,472, up 79 points or 1.8%. For the first half of the year, the Hang Seng Index has declined by a cumulative 2,749.52 points, or 10.73%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has fallen by 1,355.38 points, or 15.21%. The Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped by 1,043.75 points or
Domestic bank stocks continued their downward trend, as the market reacted strongly to the National Audit Office's report; UBS Group indicated the financial impact on domestic banks is limited.
As of June 30, shares of China's major state-owned banks continued their downward trend. At the time of reporting, Agricultural Bank of China and ICBC had each fallen by more than 4%, Bank of Communications was down nearly 4%, and China Construction Bank had declined by over 3%.
A-share bank stocks declined.
GLH News, June 30 | The banking sector continued to decline in the afternoon session, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank falling over 4%, and shares of China Zheshang Bank, Xiamen Bank, Bank of China, among others, leading the losses.