How to invest when the bond market has pulled back? Huafu Fund Yao Jiaojiao: Bond investment follows long-term principles
Entering 2024, the overall domestic bond market continues to strengthen, and public bond funds have a unique landscape. Looking at the index, as of May 8, the Wande Short-Term Pure Debt Fund Index (885062.WI) had an increase of 1.31%, and the Wande Medium- and Long-Term Pure Bond Fund Index (885008.WI) had an increase of 1.68%. In terms of fund products, the annual return of over 90% of pure debt funds was positive, and the highest net worth increased by nearly 7%.
Expectations are strong for trillion-dollar special treasury bonds to land in May. The peak in government bond supply is imminent. How big is the risk of an impact?
In the first 4 months of this year, the scale of local bond issuance and net financing was much lower than the same period last year. The market generally expects the issuance of special bonds to accelerate. The estimated issuance of local bonds in May-June is close to 1.7 trillion yuan. The issuance of a superimposed trillion-dollar special treasury bond may be completed in May, and the supply of government bonds will peak.
The bond market closed | The trading volume was small, but the amplitude was not small. 30-year treasury bonds rose 2.25 bps
Traders said that since it is Sunday, market trading is not active, but they can still feel that the market is in the mood to take profit, retreat, and fight again after the holiday.
Interest rates on 30-year treasury bonds are 9.2 bps lower than MLF. What are the references for extreme bond market pricing?
The 5-year LPR has been lowered, but MLF interest rates have not changed. This may increase the reduction points of medium- to long-term bonds compared to MLF. If medium- and long-term bonds are simply priced from the perspective of the historical quantile of “MLF plus and minus points,” the strategy will weaken somewhat.
The Ministry of Finance strongly responded to the ultra-long special treasury bond issuance schedule. Open market operations may add treasury bonds, and the bond market has risen sharply
This morning, the Ministry of Finance's Party Group Theory Study Center Group published an article in the “People's Daily” stating that it supports the gradual increase in treasury bond trading and enriching the monetary policy toolbox in the central bank's open market operations. Research and expand the variety and scale of government bond counter sales, etc.
The bond market closes | The central bank says there is still room for monetary policy, and 10-year treasury bonds have declined by nearly 2BP in the intraday period
Traders told the Financial Federation that the deputy governor of the central bank said at the press conference of the State Information Office in the afternoon that there is still room for future monetary policy, and the bond market declined for a short time, but it did not continue. Treasury bond futures bulls performed more optimistically, showing a sharp rise in volume and price.
The bond market closed | GDP increased 5.3% year on year in the first quarter, and cash notes declined slightly by 0.7 bps in 10 years
Traders said that due to early trading data, the bond market fluctuated slightly. With the impact of the decline in the equity market, bond market sentiment boosted, leading the way in the long term, but 10-year performance was slightly weak.
There is another rumor about the bond market “restricting small to medium banks from buying ultra-long bonds”. What is the truth? Institutions: There was a huge amount of sales at the opening of the market, but it was quickly digested
In early trading today, bond market yields fell across the board, but then quickly rebounded and slowly declined after noon trading. As of 18 o'clock, the yield on 30-year treasury bonds was 2.507%, and the yield on 10-year treasury bonds was 2.312%, up 0.99% and 0.41%, respectively.
CITIC Securities: How to understand “focusing on long-term yield changes in the process of economic recovery”?
The first quarter goods administration meeting proposed a new “focus on long-term yield changes”, which attracted market attention.
Bond market closes | Land investment is back. The central bank has repurchased 2 billion dollars for 2 consecutive days, and bond market sentiment has recovered
Traders said that after yesterday's digestion, the bond market sentiment has changed to a certain extent today. However, with a futures trading volume of 510,000 and more than 1,400 cash transactions, the activity level is not high, and the market may have now entered an observation period.
The bond market closed | the market made up for the decline, or the official manufacturing PMI returned above 50
Traders said that the bond market made up for the decline today, the official manufacturing PMI returned to more than 50 incremental information, and the recovery in stock market sentiment is also putting pressure on the bond market. After the opening and diving of the main contract for treasury bond futures T, it stabilized around 103.8 and fluctuated up and down.
Bond Market Closes | Response to rumors was lackluster, long-term and ultra-long-term performance was divided, and 10-year treasury bonds rose to 2.335%
Traders said that today's bond market performance was divided. In the morning, ultra-long-term treasury bond futures rose sharply due to the “central bank buying debt” rumor, but the market calmly began to pull back to the opening position in the afternoon.
The central bank downgraded the rating on the 3rd of this month. The probability that it will land in the second quarter is not high. A wave of bond supply hits, and short-term disturbances will not change the “bullish” bond market
① Recently, the central bank's open market operation continues to be in a state of net return, mainly due to the emphasis on “avoiding capital accumulation and idling.” ② The peak of bond supply in the second quarter is approaching, and the downgrade may be a more appropriate liquidity support method.
Bond market closes | Both medium- and long-term treasury bonds rose, 30-year treasury bond futures fell 0.76%
Traders said that judging from futures, the bond market was running smoothly in early trading but was not very emotional, and fluctuated in a narrow range of 104.1. The decline began in the afternoon, and the decline extended to 0.2% after 3 o'clock, probably due to the sharp drop in exchange rates.
Bond market closes | The Federal Reserve kept federal interest rates unchanged in March, and the bond market amplitude narrowed to around 2 bp
Traders said that the Federal Reserve interest rate remained unchanged in line with market expectations, but Powell's statement was biased against market expectations and did not have much impact on the bond market. Today's cash trading activity declined, with a limited amplitude of around 2 bp.
The bond market closes | LPR remains on hold, the central bank maintains minimal investment, and the loose funding situation remains unchanged
Traders said that today's two-term LPR flat rate was in line with market expectations and did not cause market disturbances. While the stock market was recovering, the bond market adjusted slightly. Judging from changes in treasury bond futures positions, the take-profit exit led to a correction.
Bond market closed | Real estate development investment fell 9% year on year, 30-year ultra-long term bonds fell 2.25BP
Traders said that last Friday's financial data and this morning's economic data were favorable to the bond market. Coupled with the weekly bond market correction, some room was freed up. Today, futures made up the rise, and there was also a certain decline in current securities.
After the bond market “dived high”, fluctuations intensified, and there was a lot of anxiety
Financial Services Association, March 13 (Editor Liu Chen) Yesterday, 30-year treasury bond futures staged a very standard “high dive”. Judging from the Japanese K-line, the opening of the market broke the 20-day EMA, falling for four consecutive days.
Local debt is slow and treasury bonds are speeding up. May may reach a total peak of 1.7 trillion in government bond supply
Affected by fiscal commitment and project reserves, the pace of issuing local government bonds has been slow since this year, freeing up the way for treasury bonds to accelerate. Trillions of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are ready to be issued during the year. It is easy to imagine that this will put pressure on the issuance and liquidity of treasury bonds with other maturities. The agency expects the net supply of government bonds to reach about 1.69 trillion yuan in May, close to the peak of 1.7 trillion yuan in June 2022.
Treasury bonds continued to rise and “break” on the 10th. Has the time come to stop profits and “retreat”?
In early trading today, the bond market made a sharp correction, ending 10 days of continuous decline. This pace of operation seems to have long been anticipated by the market. Frontline people said, “This is expected self-fulfillment.”