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Ministry of Finance: Implementing interest subsidy policies for loans to small, medium, and micro enterprises
The Ministry of Finance has announced that, effective January 1, 2026, central government subsidies will be provided at an annual rate of 1.5 percentage points for a maximum duration of two years for fixed-asset loans to eligible small and medium-sized private enterprises and projects utilizing funds from new policy-based financial instruments. The maximum subsidized loan amount per entity is capped at 50 million yuan. The implementation period of this policy is initially set for one year, with the possibility of extension based on circumstances.
The Ministry of Finance and three other departments: Central government provides a 1.5 percentage point interest subsidy on the principal of fixed-asset loans related to equipment renewal projects for business entities.
On January 20, the Ministry of Finance and three other departments issued the Notice on Optimizing the Implementation of Fiscal Subsidy Policies for Equipment Renewal Loans.
JPMorgan predicts that Chinese banking stocks will rise this year but will relatively lag behind due to favorable liquidity conditions. The bank upgraded Minsheng Bank (01988.HK) to an "Overweight" rating.
JPMorgan issued a report forecasting absolute share price increases for Bank of China stocks, but expects them to underperform the broader market by 2026. JPMorgan anticipates approximately RMB 110 trillion in term deposits maturing in 2026, including around RMB 7 trillion in excess household savings. This could provide liquidity support to the capital markets and drive market performance. Driven by a recovery in net interest income and wealth management fees, JPMorgan expects revenue and profit growth for Chinese banks to see moderate improvement by 2026. However, bank stocks may lag behind in liquidity-driven rallies. Among high-dividend stocks, JPMorgan favors Bank of Communications (601).
Express News | CEB Bank: Plans to redeem RMB 35 billion of the third tranche of preferred shares on February 11, 2026.
Is the narrative of a 'tidal wave of tens of trillions of high-interest fixed deposits maturing' reliable? Repricing does not equate to deposit migration, as banks have multiple strategies to address the situation.
①Currently, over 70% of household deposits are non-demand deposits, but there is no accurate data on the structure and maturity of these deposits. Most related analyses are deductions based on certain assumptions. ②Banking professionals believe that although some three-year fixed deposits will indeed mature in 2026, 'the maturity of high-interest fixed deposits does not equate to deposit migration.' ③Banks have various means to address the repricing of household deposits and would actually welcome a decline in the proportion of fixed-term deposits.
CICC: Following the PBOC's "structural rate cut," it does not imply an immediate traditional rate cut; expectations for a rate cut this year remain at 10 basis points.
CICC issued a report stating that yesterday the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, along with introducing five additional measures related to these tools. The adjustments include changes to the types, coverage, and quotas of structural monetary policy support instruments. In terms of aggregate impact, the direct effect of this adjustment on asset prices is relatively limited, with the key factor being the subsequent implementation. This policy adjustment reflects the characteristics of the current macroeconomic policy approach—maintaining moderate easing in overall terms while placing greater emphasis on structural adjustments. This tone aligns with the focus on 'quality and efficiency' emphasized at the Central Economic Work Conference and may continue.