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Three major investment banks have uniformly adopted a bullish stance on gold, though their underlying rationales differ in emphasis.
Citi is monitoring the decline in oil prices following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs emphasizes continued gold purchases by global central banks, and UBS Group believes that rising global fiscal risks are driving demand for gold allocations.
Citi: Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen in Q4; short-term gold target price raised to $4,800
Citi regards the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in Q4 2026 as its core scenario, anticipating that oil prices may decline rapidly following the reopening, thereby alleviating U.S. inflationary pressures, interest rate burdens, and debt stress. The bank maintains its bullish outlook on gold, expecting that weaker real interest rates and a softer U.S. dollar will further support gold prices. It sets the 0–3 month target price for gold at $4,800 per ounce and projects a price of $5,000 per ounce over the 6–12 month horizon.
Will gold shine again? Societe Generale reinstates bullish stance, Deutsche Bank declares "the cavalry has arrived," and leading asset managers are accelerating position building.
Société Générale has clearly reinstated its long position on gold, arguing that the impact of hawkish policies has been priced in and current downside risks are limited. Deutsche Bank confirms that a turning point for institutional capital has arrived, with hedge funds, asset managers, and banks successively increasing their purchases, although positions remain at low levels. Leading asset management firms such as Amundi, Robeco, and Fidelity have increased their gold holdings during the pullback, while structural factors like central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization provide foundational support for gold prices.
Hong Kong-listed gold stocks rallied collectively as Waller's dovish stance cooled rate hike expectations, with easing pressure on the U.S. dollar and interest rates supporting a recovery in gold prices.
Gold stocks opened higher across the board. As of press time, Zijin Gold International (02259) rose 4.12% to HK$166.8, and Zijin Mining (02899) gained 4.02% to HK$37.8.
Gold bulls gather momentum! Goldman Sachs sets year-end target of $4,900, with central bank demand as key support
① Goldman Sachs Research's latest forecast projects that gold prices will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by robust demand from central banks seeking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves; ② Meanwhile, the firm warns that investors' use of gold derivatives for hedging could exacerbate price volatility.
Gold selling pressure is nearing exhaustion! Deutsche Bank: Even a hawkish Federal Reserve struggles to curb the strength of precious metals, with the next rally potentially driven by proactive capital inflows.
The gold market is standing at a critical turning point.