Galaxy Entertainment Group Stock Slides 2.6% in Hong Kong
Citi: Concert events help mitigate the decline in gaming revenue; maintains June forecast at MOP 19 billion
Citi published a research report indicating that, according to industry data, Macau’s gross gaming revenue for the first 14 days of June is estimated to have reached approximately MOP 9 billion. Average daily revenue during this period was about MOP 586 million, representing a decline of roughly 20% compared to May’s average daily revenue of approximately MOP 729 million, and a drop of around 16% from the average daily revenue of approximately MOP 700 million recorded in the first week of June. This decline is believed to be attributable to the commencement of the World Cup tournament. The report cited industry sources as saying that VIP segment betting volumes declined by approximately 15% to 18% month-over-month, while mass-market gaming revenue fell by about 10% to 13% month-over-month. Citi noted that looking ahead, concerts are scheduled to be held at venues such as Galaxy Arena and Londoner Arena.
The Macao Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reiterated that the claim of a 'casino black box' is false information.
The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao reiterated that recent online messages circulating on social media platforms regarding the so-called 'Macao casino black box' are entirely unfounded rumors. Furthermore, multiple unverified claims have again recently surfaced alleging that individuals have received refunds of gambling losses after being defrauded, with some self-proclaimed victims urging others to contact specific individuals for assistance. Such messages may involve fraud. The public is hereby strongly advised not to believe or share unverified information to avoid falling victim to scams. The Bureau emphasized that all gaming equipment operating within Macao’s casinos is subject to strict regulatory oversight and must comply with applicable laws and regulations, technical standards, and security requirements. All electronic gaming devices must be approved by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau prior to deployment.
Citi: Macau's gaming revenue in June and July is expected to decline by 10% and 5% year-over-year, respectively, due to the World Cup.
It is recommended to establish positions in Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928)—the two companies the bank favors most—when their share prices show potential short-term weakness.
Citi maintains its forecast for a 10% year-over-year decline in Macau’s June gaming revenue, as the World Cup diverted a portion of betting budgets.
Citi published a research report noting that industry data indicates Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first seven days of June may have reached approximately MOP 4.9 billion, implying an average daily run rate of around MOP 700 million—about 4% lower than in May, potentially due to China’s national college entrance examination (Gaokao) taking place in early June. Looking ahead, the bank believes Macau’s GGR could face headwinds, as the summer FIFA World Cup may divert a portion of players’ betting budgets away from Macau. Additionally, the high base effect from last year—when Jacky Cheung held concerts in Macau during the same period—will make year-over-year comparisons more challenging. The bank maintains its June GGR forecast at MOP 19 billion, representing a 10% year-over-year decline, implying an average daily run rate for the remainder of the month of
CLSA Downgrades Macau Gaming Stocks’ Target Prices, Citing Sector Entering a Slow Lane and Facing Pressure on Free Cash Flow
Lyon published a research report stating that Macau’s gaming industry is entering a slower growth phase, with overall gaming revenue growth expected to moderate year-over-year due to a high base effect and lack of incremental drivers. The sector is currently in its seasonal low period in the second quarter, and the upcoming FIFA World Cup—scheduled to run for 39 days from June 11 to July 19—is likely to divert some tourists, potentially leading to a sequential decline in the industry’s EBITDA for the quarter. The firm slightly lowered its forecast for Macau’s total gaming revenue growth in 2026 by one percentage point to 4% year-over-year, reaching MOP 257.3 billion, and broadly reduced target prices for multiple Hong Kong-listed stocks in the sector. The report noted that industry competition is