A 9.4 million-barrel-per-day shortfall! IEA warns that renewed U.S.-Iran clashes could upend next year's oil surplus outlook

According to the IEA report, global oil supply rebounded by 4.1 million barrels per day in June due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, yet it remains 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. A lasting peace agreement is a 'necessary condition' for normalizing oil markets. While crude oil supply currently appears ample, refined product markets remain persistently tight—a divergence that drove crack spreads and refining margins to a four-year high earlier this month. Global oil demand is expected to decline by 1 million barrels per day this year, marking the first annual drop in six years since the pandemic.

wallstreetcnJul 11 02:50

Trump stated that the U.S. has agreed to continue negotiations with Iran; U.S. media reported that a new round of talks could take place next week, while Iranian media denied the claim.

According to Iranian media, reports that the preparatory work for negotiations in Islamabad has been finalized and that technical talks will be held next week are false. According to U.S. media, Qatari negotiators traveled to Iran on Friday—after coordinating with U.S. officials—to meet with Iranian officials and create conditions for the resumption of U.S.-Iran talks. Diplomats stated that both the United States and Iran hope to return to the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding. U.S. officials indicated that the Trump administration’s strategy involves carrying out strikes followed by a pause in military operations to prevent further escalation and to allow space for diplomatic mediation.

wallstreetcnJul 11 02:17

Hong Kong Market Moves | Shares of China's 'Big Three' Oil Companies All Decline as Market Views Middle East Situation as "Contained," Driving Oil Prices Down 2.2%

Gelonghui, July 10 | Hong Kong-listed oil stocks declined collectively, with PetroChina and CNOOC dropping more than 2%, and Sinopec falling nearly 1%. In news developments, Iran announced strikes on U.S. military targets in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain in response to U.S. airstrikes on Iran on Wednesday. However, markets viewed this exchange of fire as a contained escalation, leading crude oil prices to fall rather than rise. WTI crude dropped 2.2% to $71.87 per barrel, while gold rebounded by 1.1% to $4,121.67 per ounce. After the market characterized the geopolitical incident as a "contained escalation," risk premiums embedded in crude oil futures not only failed to rise but also declined.

Gelonghui FinanceJul 10 09:53

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated, prompting Trump to switch Air Force One mid-trip during his return from the NATO summit after Israel informed the U.S. of a new Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.

At the sensitive moment of renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, Trump abruptly switched presidential aircraft during his attendance at a NATO summit—an unusual move prompted by critical intelligence from Israel indicating that Iran was plotting a new assassination attempt against Trump.

wallstreetcnJul 10 09:05

Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Supply: Iran Reportedly Rushes Over 10 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Out in 24 Hours; Qatar Suspends LNG Production Capacity Restoration

It has been reported that Iran urgently deployed multiple tankers within 24 hours to transport a total of 11 million barrels of crude oil, roughly equivalent to its weekly export volume prior to the conflict. Following an attack on a Qatari LNG carrier in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar decided to suspend its accelerated plan to restore production capacity at Ras Laffan—one of the world’s largest LNG production facilities—and will maintain operations at minimum levels.

wallstreetcnJul 10 02:43

Commodities: Goldman Sachs warns that the latest conflict in the Strait of Hormuz could delay the recovery of oil supply.

Goldman Sachs published a report estimating that crude oil production in the Persian Gulf in June remained approximately 1.05 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Should tensions escalate again and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the recovery of Middle Eastern oil supply could be set back. Following a second consecutive day of hostilities between the United States and Iran, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt. Goldman Sachs noted that recent attacks on tankers indicate that risks associated with transiting the strait remain elevated, and under the current uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire, shipping companies may hesitate to navigate through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates that, within the first 10 days after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil flows through the Persian Gulf

AASTOCKSJul 9 14:01