Hong Kong Stocks Move Sharply | 'Big Three' Oil Stocks Active; CNOOC Rises Over 2% as Middle East Conflict Drives Up Energy Costs
Gelonghui, July 13 | Hong Kong-listed shares of China's "Big Three" oil companies performed actively, with CNOOC rising over 2%, PetroChina up 1.55%, and Sinopec gaining 0.5%. This follows escalating tensions over the weekend between the U.S. and Iran, as both sides issued conflicting statements regarding navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran declared it would “indefinitely close” the strait, while the U.S. military maintained that the waterway remains “open for passage.” As a result, international oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude rising as much as 4% during the day to USD 79.08 per barrel, prompting a broad rally in Asian energy stocks alongside higher oil prices.
Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S. forces stated they were launching strikes against Iran and explosions were heard in multiple Iranian locations.
On July 12, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting all vessel traffic until the United States ceases its intervention. The U.S. military declared it would strike Iran in response to attacks on civilian vessels in the strait. Explosions were subsequently reported in southern Iran, including in Bushehr, Asaluyeh, Qeshm Island, and Chabahar Port. The IRGC warned that if the U.S. uses this as a pretext for new attacks, Iran will respond forcefully and target additional U.S. bases in the Middle East.
A 9.4 million-barrel-per-day shortfall! IEA warns that renewed U.S.-Iran clashes could upend next year's oil surplus outlook
According to the IEA report, global oil supply rebounded by 4.1 million barrels per day in June due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, yet it remains 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. A lasting peace agreement is a 'necessary condition' for normalizing oil markets. While crude oil supply currently appears ample, refined product markets remain persistently tight—a divergence that drove crack spreads and refining margins to a four-year high earlier this month. Global oil demand is expected to decline by 1 million barrels per day this year, marking the first annual drop in six years since the pandemic.
Trump stated that the U.S. has agreed to continue negotiations with Iran; U.S. media reported that a new round of talks could take place next week, while Iranian media denied the claim.
According to Iranian media, reports that the preparatory work for negotiations in Islamabad has been finalized and that technical talks will be held next week are false. According to U.S. media, Qatari negotiators traveled to Iran on Friday—after coordinating with U.S. officials—to meet with Iranian officials and create conditions for the resumption of U.S.-Iran talks. Diplomats stated that both the United States and Iran hope to return to the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding. U.S. officials indicated that the Trump administration’s strategy involves carrying out strikes followed by a pause in military operations to prevent further escalation and to allow space for diplomatic mediation.
Hong Kong Market Moves | Shares of China's 'Big Three' Oil Companies All Decline as Market Views Middle East Situation as "Contained," Driving Oil Prices Down 2.2%
Gelonghui, July 10 | Hong Kong-listed oil stocks declined collectively, with PetroChina and CNOOC dropping more than 2%, and Sinopec falling nearly 1%. In news developments, Iran announced strikes on U.S. military targets in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain in response to U.S. airstrikes on Iran on Wednesday. However, markets viewed this exchange of fire as a contained escalation, leading crude oil prices to fall rather than rise. WTI crude dropped 2.2% to $71.87 per barrel, while gold rebounded by 1.1% to $4,121.67 per ounce. After the market characterized the geopolitical incident as a "contained escalation," risk premiums embedded in crude oil futures not only failed to rise but also declined.
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated, prompting Trump to switch Air Force One mid-trip during his return from the NATO summit after Israel informed the U.S. of a new Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.
At the sensitive moment of renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, Trump abruptly switched presidential aircraft during his attendance at a NATO summit—an unusual move prompted by critical intelligence from Israel indicating that Iran was plotting a new assassination attempt against Trump.
Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Supply: Iran Reportedly Rushes Over 10 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Out in 24 Hours; Qatar Suspends LNG Production Capacity Restoration
It has been reported that Iran urgently deployed multiple tankers within 24 hours to transport a total of 11 million barrels of crude oil, roughly equivalent to its weekly export volume prior to the conflict. Following an attack on a Qatari LNG carrier in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar decided to suspend its accelerated plan to restore production capacity at Ras Laffan—one of the world’s largest LNG production facilities—and will maintain operations at minimum levels.
Commodities: Goldman Sachs warns that the latest conflict in the Strait of Hormuz could delay the recovery of oil supply.
Goldman Sachs published a report estimating that crude oil production in the Persian Gulf in June remained approximately 1.05 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Should tensions escalate again and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the recovery of Middle Eastern oil supply could be set back. Following a second consecutive day of hostilities between the United States and Iran, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt. Goldman Sachs noted that recent attacks on tankers indicate that risks associated with transiting the strait remain elevated, and under the current uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire, shipping companies may hesitate to navigate through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates that, within the first 10 days after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil flows through the Persian Gulf
UBS Group: Downgrades Brent crude oil price forecasts for this year and next; lowers target prices for China's three major oil producers
Brent crude prices have recently fallen to around USD 70 per barrel, a decline exceeding UBS Group's previous expectations. However, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved, crude oil supplies passing through the Strait remain at risk.
White House Braces for a Protracted Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz: Officials Warn They Will 'Slap Them a Few Times,' with Duration of Escalation Entirely Dependent on Iran
U.S. forces have completed a new round of strikes against Iran, hitting approximately 170 military targets over two consecutive days. However, Axios reported that the White House is preparing for a potential strait confrontation that could last several days or even weeks—the duration depending entirely on whether Tehran ceases its actions. Officials stated that Washington believes it can outlast Iran in a protracted conflict.
Military tensions have escalated sharply, with both countries adopting firm stances, putting the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding at risk.
“In my view, it’s over,” U.S. President Trump said on May 8 in Ankara, Turkey, during the NATO summit, when asked about the memorandum of understanding with Iran.
Express News | Trump: No Second War with Iran, No Intention of Prolonged Conflict
Express News | U.S. President Trump: We’ll see if we can continue to push oil prices lower. We should keep oil prices low.
Express News | Sources: Iran has officially suspended U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Express News | Trump: May Strike Iran Again Tonight
Trump claimed the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement was void and launched into a furious tirade directly at the NATO summit.
Following renewed mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran, Trump publicly declared an end to the temporary ceasefire agreement between the two countries, casting doubt on the planned talks scheduled after Khamenei’s funeral. Global markets reacted sharply: both WTI and Brent crude prices surged more than 5%, gold plummeted, and U.S. stock index futures declined.
Express News | U.S. President Trump: U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding "Is Over"
Commodities: Iran Attacks U.S. Military Targets in Bahrain and Kuwait; International Oil Prices Rise by Over 3%
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that, following a series of U.S. military strikes against Iran in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has conducted joint missile and drone operations against U.S. military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, and shot down a U.S. MQ-9 drone that attempted to interfere with the operation. International oil prices extended their gains, with September Brent crude futures rising 3.34% to $76.65 per barrel and August WTI crude futures climbing 3.45% to $72.88 per barrel. Among Hong Kong-listed 'Big Three Oil' stocks, CNOOC (00883.HK) is currently trading at HK$21.90, up 3.79%; PetroChina (00857.
U.S. revocation of Iran oil waivers drives crude prices higher; Shandong Molong surges nearly 19%
① Is the recent surge in oil prices a short-term boon or a long-term trend? ② How do institutional investors view the future performance of oil stocks?
Escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, driving CNOOC (00883.HK) up more than 5%.
The United States launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoked the waivers that had permitted Iran to sell oil globally. Following a roughly 3% rise in international oil prices overnight (7th), Brent crude for September delivery rose another 2.22% this morning (8th), while August NYMEX crude also gained 2.36%. Shares of China’s 'Big Three Oil Companies' advanced: CNOOC (00883.HK) was trading at HK$22.24, up 5.4%, with turnover of 31.139 million shares valued at HK$684 million; PetroChina (00857.HK) rose 3.8% to HK$9.28; and Sinopec (00386.HK) gained 1.47%.