CITIC Securities: Supply disruptions in copper mines re-emerge, with annual production forecasts officially entering a decline.

As Freeport once again postponed the resumption of its Indonesia project and comprehensively lowered its production guidance for 2026-27, global major copper mining enterprises’ production expectations for 2026 have officially entered a decline. Additionally, the potential impact of subsequent extreme weather may lead to an expansion of supply disruptions. CITIC Securities anticipates that the recent unexpected destocking in China, reflecting robust supply-demand logic, along with easing macroeconomic pressures, will drive copper prices to stabilize above USD 13,000 per ton in Q2 2026. Amid expectations of a supply-demand imbalance, copper prices are likely to test previous highs. CITIC Securities highlights the investment opportunity in the copper sector driven by the synergy of profit elasticity and valuation upside. Copper supply disruptions re-emerge, leading to a formal reduction in annual production forecasts.

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