Express News | Executives from AI firms such as Anthropic call for slowing technological development; chip stocks face short-term pressure
Executives from AI firms such as Anthropic have called for a slowdown in technological development, exerting short-term pressure on chipmakers and supply chain stocks. However, robust spending on computing infrastructure limits the long-term impact. The Nasdaq 100 Index has fallen more than 4% from its June record high, U.S. chip stocks have declined by 14%, and Asian technology stocks have dropped nearly 8%, while the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI World Index each edged up approximately 0.6%.
Weekly Outlook | A Super Central Bank Week and China's August Economic Data Are Coming; on Monday, Iran will hold talks with Gulf states on the Hormuz Agreement, while the Korea Exchange launches after-hours stock trading; on Wednesday, the CLARITY Act faces a pivotal vote; and on Friday, U.S. stocks enter Triple Witching Day.
On September 11, Republican senators in the U.S. Senate unveiled a revised version of the CLARITY Act, just days before its first procedural vote on September 15. Senator Cynthia Lummis and other Republican lawmakers released a 630-page amended bill on Thursday, stating that it incorporates 114 amendments proposed by Democrats and emphasizing that the legislation aims to establish the United States' first comprehensive regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market.
All eyes are on Washington as the upcoming "Central Bank Super Week" raises the prospect of a wave of interest rate hikes among G7 nations?
Amid rising inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel, G7 central banks are entering a critical week for interest rate decisions. Driven by core inflation
Unlikely Alliance Between Rivals! Musk and Altman Back Dario Amodei’s Call for a "Global Slowdown in AI"
Anthropic’s Dario Amodei issued a call for a "global slowdown in AI," prompting arch-rivals Elon Musk and Sam Altman to publicly endorse the initiative. The three tech giants agreed to grant third
Express News | Golden Morning Brief | Overview of Key Overnight Developments on September 13
21:00-7:00 Keywords: Anthropic, SpaceX, Ukraine 1. Tom Lee: The cryptocurrency market will perform strongly over the next 12 months; 2. Iran: The Strait of Hormuz agreement does "not necessarily" guarantee safe navigation; 3. Ukrainian official: Ukraine is preparing to hold a new round of trilateral negotiations involving Ukraine, the United States, and Russia in October; 4. Anthropic CEO: We must slow down the pace of enhancing AI model capabilities; 5. Dalio, Altman, and Musk have successively called for slowing the pace of AI model development; 6. SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq-100 Index will increase following this rebalancing.
Goldman Sachs’ Latest View: Rising Interest Rates Do Not Necessarily Mean Falling U.S. Stocks; Earnings Growth Is the Key to a Bull Market
Goldman Sachs believes that high interest rates are a headwind for the stock market, but they are not enough to bring the bull market to an end. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has surged to 5.3%, yet historical data show that, following rate hikes, U.S. stocks have delivered an average return of as much as +9% over the subsequent 12 months. Corporate balance sheets are at their strongest level in two decades, and ongoing AI-driven investment and M&A activity continue to bolster earnings expectations. It is projected that by 2026, S&P 500 earnings per share will reach $340, up 24% year over year.
Goldman Sachs’ Latest View: Rising Interest Rates Do Not Equal Falling U.S. Stocks; Earnings Growth Is the Key to a Bull Market
Goldman Sachs believes that while high interest rates pose headwinds for the stock market, they are not sufficient to end a bull market. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has surged to 5.3%,
CICC: Sticky inflation supports rate hikes; watch for hawkish signals
In August, the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis (versus 0.1% the previous month) and 3.4% year-on-year (unchanged from the prior month). Core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month (up from 0.2% in the prior month) and 2.4% year-on-year (down slightly from 2.5% the previous month), marginally above market expectations. The month-on-month rebound in inflation was driven primarily by higher energy prices, telecom rate hikes, and persistent inflationary pressures stemming from artificial intelligence. We believe this CPI report has already met the Federal Reserve's threshold for raising interest rates, and we therefore expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting.
Traders’ Red Lines Shift Online: A 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Above 6% Is the True Threshold for Personal Portfolios
This week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly approached 5%, yet a Bloomberg survey indicates that traders are willing to tolerate yields above 6% in their own portfolios. The underlying rationale is that managing one's own capital carries no accountability for "being fired," resulting in a much higher risk tolerance than that of institutions managing other people's assets. Moreover, compared with the absolute level of Treasury yields, the pace of their rise has a more pronounced impact on the market.
Once the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-hiking cycle, is a sequence of three consecutive hikes a reasonable expectation?
BMO anticipates consecutive follow-up hikes in October and December, with the cumulative impact of three hikes potentially erasing all anticipated rate cuts for 2025. Vanguard Group considers "three
Top 20 by Trading Volume | Oracle surges 8% before turning lower; Micron Technology Taiwan plans to issue employee bonuses totaling millions of TWD; Starship test flight next week may generate revenue; iPhone Duo targets Asian market, with Cook citing ins
Micron Technology, the top-traded U.S. stock by turnover on Friday, closed down 0.22% with a trading volume of $21.197 billion. On Friday, Micron Technology announced that it would award bonuses to more than 60,000 employees worldwide, marking the highest payout in its history. Employees in the Taiwan region of China will receive total compensation equivalent to 35 to 68 months of salary.
U.S. Stock Market Close | August CPI data released; major indices surge 1%, ending four-day losing streak; Dell soars 12% to record high; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rises 2%, with Marvell and Coherent up over 4%; oil prices retreat below $100
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.86% to close at 7,656.98, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.96% to 26,333.04, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.98% to 52,573.29. WTI crude oil fell 2% to $100.44 per barrel, while Brent crude retreated nearly 3% from a four-month high but remained above $104. Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds outperformed short-term ones.
Following the CPI release, investment banks are scrambling to revise their forecasts: the camp expecting no rate hikes this year has capitulated, while hawks are betting on three rate increases by January next year.
TD Securities has adopted the most hawkish stance, shifting from a forecast of unchanged rates for the full year to projecting three rate hikes by January next year. JPMorgan now expects one hike
Is the August CPI reading "just right"? Wall Street is heavily betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, leaving Warsh unable to cry "wolf" once again.
The "New Fed Communications Channel" breaks down the CPI data: while annualized core inflation has cooled, short-term trends are resurging. Following the CPI release, at least two institutions that previously expected the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next week have revised their forecasts to anticipate a rate hike. Wall Street does not necessarily believe that U.S. inflation is spiraling out of control again, but growing consensus suggests that with disinflation stalling and oil prices rebounding, the Federal Reserve needs to implement an insurance-style policy adjustment through a rate hike. Divergence among institutions is emerging: whether September's move is merely an insurance hike or the start of a new tightening cycle, and whether there will be a hike in December, has become a new source of uncertainty.
Hassett: Trump’s $5,000 plan “can be implemented in a fiscally responsible manner”; if interest rates rise, “the President will have something to say”
Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), characterized the proposal as “serious,” stating that it “can be implemented in a fiscally responsible manner,” with offsetting measures to be negotiated with Congress. The proposal could advance through the budget reconciliation process to bypass filibusters by the minority party. Meanwhile, Hassett remarked, “I suspect that if the Federal Reserve takes significant action, the President will have something to say.”
August CPI may not have fully reflected inflationary pressures, as U.S. consumers' one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6%.
① The U.S. Department of Labor reported on September 11 that the August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding forecasts; ② A Goldman Sachs executive argued that the data underestimates inflationary pressures, as the survey period preceded the latest round of energy price hikes; ③ On the same day, the University of Michigan's September Consumer Sentiment Index was released at 47.8, significantly below expectations, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6%, hitting a new high since June.
August CPI: The Federal Reserve backed into a corner as markets begin to price in the exhaustion of negative catalysts
Source: CICC Strategy. Following the non-farm payrolls data, the August CPI also exceeded expectations. Although only the core month-on-month figure came in above forecasts (0.3% vs. expected 0.2%), core CPI is widely regarded as a key indicator. The higher-than-expected monthly gain kept the year-on-year core rate broadly flat compared to the previous month (2.45% vs. 2.48%). As for headline CPI, its rise was fully anticipated and aligned with market expectations, requiring little further comment. This data is largely consistent with our earlier forecasts.
With core CPI exceeding expectations and the Federal Reserve poised for its first rate hike in three years—pending only official announcement—why did U.S. stocks rise instead of fall?
The August CPI data in the United States has further intensified the already tense atmosphere surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting. However, the market reaction is noteworthy: while U.S. Treasury yields rose, U.S. equity index futures did not decline as intuition might suggest. For the market, this news appears to be more of a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event.
US Market Outlook | August CPI in line with market expectations; Houthi rebels announce military operations against Saudi Arabia; SpaceX secures multi-billion-dollar computing power contract; Tesla China launches new all-wheel-drive high-performance Model
In pre-market trading on Thursday, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose across the board. As of press time, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.56%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.69%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.56%.
Express News | Yemen's Houthi armed forces announced large-scale, high-quality military operations against Saudi Arabia.