Week Ahead | Inflation Takes Center Stage! US CPI Follows Nonfarm Payrolls; JD.com and Tencent Lead Wave of China-Concept Earnings, as AI Supply Chain Giants Report En Masse
In the new week, the market’s macro focus will shift comprehensively from employment to inflation and consumer spending. The U.S. July CPI, PPI, and retail sales—dubbed the 'terrifying data'—will be released consecutively starting Wednesday, directly influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path in September.
The U.S. July nonfarm payroll data presents a mixed picture: employment declined while unemployment fell—how do Wall Street analysts interpret this?
The U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report has been released, with mixed signals in the data leaving investors uncertain about the true state of the labor market.
Top 20 by Trading Volume | SpaceX surges another 16%, up 23% over two days since lock-up expiration; AI infrastructure provider Lumentum rises over 6%, set to report latest earnings after market close next Tuesday; memory stocks extend losses, with SanDis
SpaceX, which ranked first in trading volume among U.S. stocks on Friday, rose 15.83%, with a trading value of USD 30.212 billion. According to reports, SpaceX plans to build its own power generation facilities to supply electricity to the large semiconductor manufacturing plant it is jointly developing with Tesla in Texas, USA.
U.S. Markets Close | Weak Jobs Report Dampens Rate Hike Expectations; S&P 500 Hits New Record High. Software Stocks Surge, with Atlassian Jumping 35% Post-Earnings and Palantir Rising Over 10%. Gold Rebounds Strongly Above $4,300.
The S&P 500 rose 0.59% to close at 7,755.61, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.28% to 26,686.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.28% to 54,036.93. All three major U.S. equity indices recorded their largest weekly gains since mid-April this week. Spot gold surged 2.3% to $4,336 per ounce. WTI crude traded at approximately $77.5 per barrel, while Brent crude was around $82.5 per barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note stood at 4.65%.
The schedule shows that Worshe never had any phone calls with Trump in June.
Waller’s first full month as Federal Reserve Chair included no meetings or calls with Trump listed on his schedule. The schedule shows that Waller held calls or meetings with members of Congress, White House officials, and private-sector economists, including three breakfast meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent.
The U.S. Treasury Department's revised stance has sparked market speculation that the U.S. may reduce long-term bond supply to steer long-end interest rates lower.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has made a minor adjustment to its quarterly debt issuance policy statement, changing the reference to "potential future increases" in coupon securities auctions to "potential future changes." Some dealers speculate that officials may be considering reducing the auction size of the longest-dated debt and concentrating any future issuance increases on shorter- and medium-term instruments, which carry lower costs, potentially boosting sentiment toward longer-dated bonds.
Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of their agreement, while Iran is considering banning vessels linked to the U.S. and Israel from passing through its waters; however, Trump stated that negotiations have 'made progress.'
U.S. officials recently stated that the United States would lift its blockade on Iranian ports once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced. Senior Iranian officials said that if Gulf states fail to persuade Trump to halt military actions against Iran and instead resolve the conflict through negotiations, Iran would strike critical infrastructure—including oil, electricity, and water supply systems—in those countries.
Expectations for interest rate hikes have receded following a negative surprise in the U.S. July employment report, prompting a pullback in the U.S. dollar to 156.68 yen / $1.1581.
[London Market Overview] In the London foreign exchange market on the 7th, the USD/JPY pair edged slightly lower. Crude oil prices and U.S. long-term yields both softened, prompting dollar selling that pushed the pair down from 158.47 yen to 158.32 yen. However, the decline was limited as investors adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the U.S. employment report. The EUR/USD pair advanced from 1.1518 to 1.1531 amid dollar selling driven by falling crude oil prices and lower yields. Tracking the EUR/USD pair, the EUR/JPY pair also moved higher, rising from 182.49 yen to 182.59 yen.
Is the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September declining again? Economists expect core CPI to hit a five-year low.
Bloomberg economists expect the U.S. CPI for July, to be released next week, to rise 2.4% year-over-year, slowing to 2.2%–2.3% in the following two months. Historically, this would correspond to a year-over-year slowdown in core CPI to 2%. Although core CPI is expected to continue cooling, core PCE inflation remains above 3%, and this divergence is prompting the Federal Reserve to remain cautious. Next week’s existing home sales data will likely show further cooling in the housing market, also reducing the risk of renewed inflationary pressures.
OpenAI has paused development on certain Astra models, which may possess the capability to discover and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities.
OpenAI stated that its unreleased model, Astra, may possess the capability to autonomously identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities without human intervention. The company has announced a suspension of internal activities related to Astra that 'have not yet met enhanced security control requirements,' while concurrently advancing upgrades to security protocols governing the development and testing of new models.
Fed Independence Faces Renewed Challenge as Trump Resumes Effort to Remove Governor Cook
① Trump is again pushing to remove Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, after the U.S. Supreme Court previously ruled he temporarily lacks the authority to fire her; ② The White House sent a letter demanding Cook respond within three weeks to allegations of mortgage fraud, which her lawyers stated are entirely baseless.
Nasdaq Gains Over 300 Points; US Employers Cut 23,000 Jobs In July
July's nonfarm payrolls report did not provide the Federal Reserve with a clear signal! 'The New Fed Wire': Whether the Fed hikes rates in September still hinges on inflation.
Timiraos believes that the July nonfarm payrolls report sent mixed signals, and the ambiguity in the report is 'unlikely to materially alter' the Federal Reserve's current focus on inflation. If upcoming inflation data proves mild, the Fed would have stronger grounds to hold rates steady; if the data comes in strong, it could lead more policymakers to support a rate hike. Wall Street economists generally view this as a jobs report that both hawks and doves can use to support their respective positions.
New York Fed: U.S. consumers' one-year inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% in July, while unemployment expectations rose.
The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed shows that respondents expect inflation to be 3.6% over the next year, slightly lower than the 3.7% recorded in June; expectations for inflation over the next three and five years remained unchanged at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Regarding the labor market, consumers anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate. However, compared with June, respondents reported a higher perceived likelihood of finding a new job if they were to lose their current one.
BlackRock executive analyzes the negative non-farm payroll data, stating, 'Raising interest rates no longer makes much sense at this point.'
① Rick Rieder, CIO of BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Group, stated that the unexpected decline in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July is more likely a result of the AI-driven 'productivity revolution'; ② Rieder also believes that Federal Reserve rate hikes are unlikely to resolve the current issues and that structural reforms would be more effective than monetary tightening.
JS&P 500 Hits Record As Jobs Shock Sinks Rate-Hike Bets: Stock Market Today
Nonfarm payrolls dealt a sharp blow to the dollar, sending the yen up more than 1% intraday! Japan's finance minister stated that Tokyo is maintaining close communication with the U.S. and will take action if necessary.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative in July, causing the dollar to weaken significantly and driving a sharp appreciation of the yen on Friday. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that Japan and the United States maintain close communication and will not hesitate to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, further reinforcing market expectations of coordinated intervention. Analysts believe the recent yen rally is primarily driven by expectations of a narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, while signals of potential official intervention continue to provide support to the currency market.
Dow Jones Today: DJIA Edges Higher After Jobs Report Eases Rate Hike Odds
Dow Rises After Jobs Data Misses Forecasts -- WSJ
Update: US Equity Indexes Rise as Fed Pause Odds Jump Amid Surprise Drop in Nonfarm Payrolls