CICC: The Impact and Significance of the Expansion of the Hang Seng TECH Index
This will mark the most profound and systemic change to the Hang Seng TECH Index since its launch in 2020. The revision will not only align the index more closely with global technology trends but also maintain its representativeness of the technology sector in the Hong Kong stock market, against the backdrop of the ongoing wave of A-share to H-share listings.
The Inflation Profile of AI Fertile Ground
Is AI ultimately driving inflation or deflation?
CICC: The triple risks of geopolitics, inflation, and policy are gradually receding, with global liquidity expected to become more accommodative in the second half of the year.
A more likely scenario for the second half of the year involves an easing of geopolitical tensions, a downward trend in inflation, and a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to further loosening of global liquidity.
Divergence Among Fed Officials Emerges: Barkin Supports Holding Steady, Hammack Insists on Rate Hike
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin supports holding interest rates steady, arguing that inflation stems primarily from temporary shocks, but warns that AI investment and supply chain dynamics could exert persistent price pressures. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, meanwhile, reaffirmed her stance in favor of rate hikes, cautioning against financial stability risks such as U.S. Treasury leverage and an AI bubble. With unemployment remaining low and economic data presenting a mixed picture, the Federal Reserve’s policy path for its September meeting is fraught with uncertainty.
HK Market Quick Look | Major indices show mixed performance; the Tech Index rises 0.33%, while Tencent drops over 4% post-earnings; AI application and optical communication stocks gain, with Zhipu surging over 9% and Cambridge Industries rising over 6%; L
Internet and technology stocks underperformed, with Tencent down 4.46% and Xiaomi Group -W down 1.82%; non-ferrous metal stocks weakened, with Lingbao Gold dropping 9.43% and China Hongqiao falling 7.12%; mobile gaming stocks declined, with Tencent down 4.46% and Kingsoft Software down 3.21%;
HK Stock Market Midday Review | The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng TECH Index rising 0.3%. Semiconductor stocks advanced, with Hua Hong Hongli surging over 5% and SMIC gaining nearly 4%. Following its earnings release, Te
Internet and technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Tencent down 3.81% and Baidu Group-SW up 2.25%; mobile gaming stocks weakened, with Tencent falling 3.81% and Kingsoft Software dropping 2.92%; non-ferrous metal stocks declined, with Lingbao Gold down 6.78% and Aluminum Corporation of China losing 5.01%;
What are the implications and significance of the expansion of the Hang Seng TECH Index? CICC Analysis
On August 10, Hang Seng Indexes Company published a consultation paper on its official website seeking market feedback on proposed revisions to the methodology for calculating the Hang Seng TECH Index. Key proposals include expanding the index’s technology theme coverage, adjusting the constituent selection mechanism, and increasing the number of constituents.
Futu Morning Brief | AI Faces Not a Demand Shortage but a Compute Shortage! Morgan Stanley Says Supply Bottlenecks May Persist for Years; DeepSeek V4 Pro Official Version Launches, Competing with Grok 4.6; SanDisk Investor Day and SMIC & Hua Hong Semicond
Oil prices retreated after five consecutive sessions of gains, with market focus shifting to the Strait of Hormuz and supply gaps. While Trump claimed "complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data reveals that Iran still holds substantial de facto dominance.
DeepSeek V4 Pro Official Version Launches in Late-Night Surprise: Multiple Benchmarks Approach Fable 5, Rivaling Grok 4.6
The DeepSeek official website's API documentation was quietly updated, with the model version switching from the V4-Pro preview to DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813. The update indicates that the new model supports a 1M context window and a maximum output of 384K tokens. While API pricing has not yet been increased, no changelog for the new model has been released simultaneously. Circulating benchmark comparison tables suggest that the new model's performance in various agent tests approaches that of Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, significantly surpassing the V4-Pro preview version.
Express News | PBOC: Timely plan and introduce practical and effective incremental policies, and strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments.
The central bank released the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the second quarter of 2026. In the next phase, the People's Bank of China will firmly grasp the primary task of high-quality development, steadily advance Chinese-style modernization, adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, and fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy. It will fully leverage the effectiveness of existing stock policies, timely plan and introduce practical and effective incremental policies, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, make greater efforts to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, and promote sustained economic development that is newer, better, and more robust. We will unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, further deepen financial reform and high-level opening-up, accelerate the building of a strong financial nation, improve the central banking system, establish a scientific and robust monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macroprudential management system, and ensure smooth transmission mechanisms for monetary policy.
Express News | Citi: Gold and silver still have room to rise; improving geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions will restore investment demand for precious metals.
Citi Research states that the bullish trade in precious metals is not yet over. Silver will continue to follow gold's direction, serving as a more aggressive expression of upside potential due to its higher volatility elasticity. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz eventually ease, coupled with a less hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, investment demand for precious metals will continue to recover. Recent market movements have provided context for this view. The settlement price of COMEX August gold futures rose 0.49% to $4,383 per ounce, while silver futures fell 0.5% on the day to $64.769 per ounce, ending a two-day winning streak. Citi believes that short-term corrections do not alter silver's positioning as a high-beta asset relative to gold. If easing geopolitical risks drive capital back into precious metals, silver has the opportunity to rise to $95 per ounce by 2027. However, Citi also retains risk scenarios. The bank estimates there is approximately a 20% probability that silver could fall to $50 per ounce, indicating that current precious metals trading remains highly dependent on interest rate expectations, the U.S. dollar trend, and geopolitical risks. For the market, gold remains the core asset for defense and rate-cut expectations, while silver is better suited to capture elastic gains following a recovery in risk appetite.
Dan Bin's latest holdings are out! Newly added positions in 7 companies.
The latest U.S. equity holdings of Dan Bin's fund have been released.
CICC: Asset Allocation – Has Global Liquidity Reached an Inflection Point?
Continued global monetary easing supports tech-growth sectors, gold, and base metals. Currently, non-AI segments of the U.S. market have yet to fully recover, with employment, consumer spending, and residential investment all showing signs of deceleration—insufficient evidence so far for convergence in the K-shaped divergence.
Hong Kong Market Snapshot | All three major indices declined, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping nearly 1%; memory storage, PCB concept, and optical communication stocks were active. CSOP Twox Leveraged Samsung Electronics rose nearly 14%, KB Speciali
Tech and internet stocks broadly declined, with NetEase down 5.08% and Alibaba-W falling 3.01%; property developers advanced across the board, led by China Jinmao rising 13.92% and Sunac China up 8.93%; mobile gaming stocks weakened, with NetEase down 5.08% and Bilibili-W declining 3.34%;
Hong Kong Market Midday Review | All three major indices fell by more than 1%, with tech and internet stocks declining—Alibaba dropped over 3% and Tencent fell nearly 3%. Semiconductor stocks gained strength, with Hua Hong Hongli rising over 7%. MINIMAX s
Tech and internet stocks broadly declined, with NetEase down 3.50% and Alibaba Group Holding down 3.24%; mobile gaming stocks fell, with Bilibili down 3.69% and NetEase down 3.50%; most sporting goods stocks declined, though Eagle Nice rose 9.45%, while Anta Sports dropped 3.62%;
Hong Kong Stocks Open Lower as Strait of Hormuz Risks Persist
Hong Kong stocks opened lower on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data and weighed rising oil prices amid uncertainty over efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.The
Kwok Si Chi: The market has once again fallen below both the 10-day and 250-day moving averages.
Vincent Kwok, Vice Chairman of the Hong Kong Society of Financial Analysts, noted that the broader market rose initially but then plunged sharply yesterday (11th). The Hang Seng Index opened slightly higher by 61 points at 25,998 in the morning session, subsequently advancing modestly to 26,060 before encountering resistance. As buying interest at elevated levels turned increasingly cautious and sporadic selling pressure began to mount, the market started to reverse downward. The Hang Seng Index then plunged as much as 290 points to 25,647 before stabilizing somewhat. As of now, the index has once again fallen below both the 10-day moving average (around 25,812) and the 250-day moving average (around 25,742). From a purely technical perspective, the market is not only showing increasing volatility...
Futu Morning Brief | Fed officials turn hawkish again; tonight’s CPI data may price in a September rate hike; Tencent to report earnings after market close today, with AI investment returns under scrutiny; Jensen Huang clarifies $500 billion financing pla
Escalating maritime tensions between the U.S. and Iran prolong the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz; pessimism continues to spread across U.S. equity markets, yet historical data suggest such sentiment has often served as fuel for the next rally in the S&P 500.
Hang Seng Index Bull/Bear Ratio (53:47) | August 12
As of August 12, the latest bull-to-bear warrant ratio for the Hang Seng Index stood at 53:47.
Blame AI concerns? Foreign investors staged a massive exit from South Korean equities in July, marking the ninth consecutive month of outflows from Asian stock markets.
① Amid concerns over AI-related expectations, foreign capital recorded significant net outflows from the equity markets of Taiwan and South Korea in July, with the benchmark indices of the two markets declining by 6.52% and 22.19%, respectively; ② In the same month, a combined net outflow of USD 25.48 billion was recorded across the equity markets of seven regions, including South Korea and Taiwan.