The recent sharp drop in the US market
$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures (MAR6) (NQmain.US)$ , aside from the technical breakdown, the market has been looking for 'reasons.' Although I’m against finding reasons after the fact,this time, it’s absolutely 'necessary' to find the reason because we need to understand what caused it, whether it will persist for a long time, and if it might trigger systemic risks, etc.
Currently, I believe there are several reasons that have significantly impacted the market decline, including:
1) Short-term liquidity risk in BTC
2) Semiconductor CAPEX guidance exceeding expectations, triggering market concerns over ROI returns
3) The impact of Anthropic's plugin tool on SAAS
First of all, yesterday
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Dropped from 73,000 to this morning's 60,000
The sharp drop in BTC inevitably triggered margin calls and forced liquidations. This time, the reason is said to be Blackstone's IBIT ETF, which triggered liquidations due to its decline. Unlike retail investors, as an index-based institutional ETF, IBIT must meet two main prerequisites: 1) large volume (single-day trading reached 10 billion) and 2) use of derivatives for hedging. This time, the decline triggered its MARGIN CALL. As it needed funds to cover the position, it sold its LONG PUT hedging options to fill the gap. When the market continued to fall, its BITCOIN lost protection, triggering another round of liquidation, while simultaneously impacting the long positions worth 1.7-2.5 billion across the network...