Express News | The New Development Bank issued 8 billion yuan panda bonds.
Morgan Stanley: Focus on managing net interest spread as internal banks confirm lowered deposit rates.
JPMorgan released a report stating that the announcement by six large state-owned banks of a reduction of deposit interest rates on the previous day (25th) was not unexpected, based on earlier media reports. The bank reiterated its positive view on China mainland banking, based on the narrowing net interest margin gap of two basis points resulting from the reduction of deposit interest rates and loan market quote rates (LPR), which is estimated to increase the bank's earnings by 2% next year. The rapid reduction of deposit interest rates also confirms the bank's view that regulatory authorities and banks are more focused on stabilizing the net interest margin. The bank believes that future interest rate cuts will be symmetrical, and the reduction of deposit interest rates will be accompanied by a reduction in LPR. The bank also noted that regulatory authorities are cracking down on banks' artificial intervention in interest rates, including deposits.
HSBC Research: Lowering deposit rates for domestic banks is a surprise. Preferential construction bank (00939.HK), industrial and commercial bank (01398.HK), Bank of China (03988.HK), China Merchants Bank(03968.HK) and HKEX (00388.HK).
HSBC Research has published a research report indicating that major banks in mainland China have recently lowered deposit rates, causing surprise. Although current deposit rates are already low, there is still room for further reduction, and the reduction in interest rates for fixed-term deposits of 2 to 5 years exceeds the reduction in LPR. Therefore, it is expected that the cost of transferring the reduction in LPR to deposit costs may increase from the originally expected 25% to close to 50% to 100%. Assuming a transfer rate of 50%, the bank's net interest margin (NIM) is expected to be affected by approximately 1 to 2 basis points, or a reduction in profit of 1% to 2.3%. If the transfer rate is 100%, the impact on the bank's NIM and profit will be more severe due to a greater proportion of deposit balances subject to the reduced interest rates.
China's 'Big Four' Banks Cut Interest Rates
China: Consumer goods in the Mainland could lead to GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, or increase household appliance sales by 15%
China's Ministry of Finance issued a notice on “Certain Measures to Support Large-Scale Equipment Upgrades and Replacement of Consumer Goods” by the National Development Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. Proposed the coordination of around RMB 300 billion (below) in ultra-long term special government debt financing, and strongly supported large-scale equipment upgrades and the replacement of old consumer goods. This indicates a further decline in positive fiscal policy, which the Bank expects could drag down GDP growth by around 0.3 percentage points.
Government bond futures hit a new historic high yesterday. Analysis suggests the fundamental aspects of the market still support a further decline in bond yields.
According to a report from the Shanghai Securities News, the national bond futures hit a new historic high following the news of a state-owned bank lowering deposit rates and the central bank lowering MLF operational rates by 20 basis points. Yesterday (25th), the main contract for the 30-year national bond futures rose by 0.4%, setting a new closing high, while the main contract for the 10-year national bond futures fell slightly but still reached a historic high during the trading day. Analysts believe that although short-term interest rates have significantly declined after the interest rate cut, long-term interest rates remain relatively restrained, but fundamental factors still support further declines in bond yields. In the current market sentiment and policy environment, institutions suggest that investors be cautious in bond investment and avoid excessive operations.